森林生物多样性支付意愿影响因素及价值评估——以甘肃省迭部县为例

以甘肃省迭部县为例,综合运用Logistic回归和CVM两种方法,通过问卷调查的形式,分析宗教信仰、职业、年均家庭收入、对森林生物多样性了解程度等因素对森林生物多样性支付意愿的影响,并运用CVM方法估算迭部县森林生物多样性的年价值。结果表明：居民对森林生物多样性的保护存在一定的支付意愿;学生和个体工商业者以及无宗教信仰、年均收入较高、对森林生物多样性了解程度较高的居民总体上支付意愿更强;迭部县森林生物多样性的年评估价值在397296元／a～1732652元／a,平均支付意愿值为7．20元／a-31．40元／a。     

论唐代广州内外港与海上交通的关系

唐代广州港分为扶胥港等外港和广州城等内港。扶胥港是中外商舶进出广州的必经之地,人们在此停泊一般与参拜南海神庙有关,扶胥港在中外商贸活动中作用有限。但其在护卫中外商贸交通,保证海上丝路畅通方面起到了重大作用。而广州对外贸易的繁荣与海上交通密不可分,广州城港不仅可利用珠江与广大腹地相连,而且直接与海外交通。广州城内外的相关官署和海阳等馆驿大都位于沿城南、城西的水滨,与海外贸易交通有关。唐代中后期历任广州地方官员的贪廉都对外贸的发展产生了一定的影响。     

Ethnicity as a risk indicator for musculoskeletal disease, long consultation times and care utilization A prospective visitor study of 438 consecutive adult consultations of a primary health care centre

This article shows the influence of ethnicity (people born outside Sweden and in Sweden) and social class (socioeconomic class) on the distribution of diagnoses, consultation time and health care utilization in primary health care controlled for sex, age, marital status and educational level. The study was designed as a prospective primary health care utilization study during 7 consecutive weeks. Of a total of 439 adults who lived in the residential area, 290 were born in Sweden and 149 were born elsewhere. The data were analysed unmatched with logistic regression and Poisson regression in main effect models. People born outside Sweden received significantly more diagnoses per consultation than people born in Sweden. The strongest independent risk indicator for musculoskeletal disease was being born outside Sweden, with an estimated odds ratio (OR) of 5.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.70–8.72. Age over 44 was associated with increased odds for musculoskeletal disease. Respiratory disease, as an indicator of less serious disease, were significantly less common among people born outside Sweden (OR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.33–0.87). Being born outside Sweden was a risk indicator for consultations longer than 30 minutes (OR = 3.03, 95% CI=1.18–7.43). There were no differences between people born in Sweden and those born elsewhere in health and utilization. Social class was not associated with any of the dependent variables.     

构建民办高校后勤服务新型保障体系

依据高校后勤社会化的目标和民办高校后勤改革的现状,就进一步深化后勤社会化改革,构建适合民办高校建设发展要求的新型后勤服务保障体系的问题进行探讨,并提出若干设想与建议。     

Exact formula for the cumulative distribution function of the quasi-range from the logistic distribution

In this paper we obtain an exact formula for the cumulative distribution function of the rth quasi-range from the logistic distribution. For the special case r = 0, the result agrees for the rangegiven by Gupta and Shah (1965).     

On the asymptotic distribution of Cook's distance in logistic regression models

It sometimes occurs that one or more components of the data exert a disproportionate influence on the model estimation. We need a reliable tool for identifying such troublesome cases in order to decide either eliminate from the sample, when the data collect was badly realized, or otherwise take care on the use of the model because the results could be affected by such components. Since a measure for detecting influential cases in linear regression setting was proposed by Cook [Detection of influential observations in linear regression, Technometrics 19 (1977), pp. 15–18.], apart from the same measure for other models, several new measures have been suggested as single-case diagnostics. For most of them some cutoff values have been recommended (see [D.A. Belsley, E. Kuh, and R.E. Welsch, Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity, 2nd ed., John Wiley & Sons, New York, Chichester, Brisban, (2004).], for instance), however the lack of a quantile type cutoff for Cook's statistics has induced the analyst to deal only with index plots as worthy diagnostic tools. Focussed on logistic regression, the aim of this paper is to provide the asymptotic distribution of Cook's distance in order to look for a meaningful cutoff point for detecting influential and leverage observations.     

中国大陆上的第一道西洋建筑文化景观

当年广州十三行商馆区——一道耀眼的西洋建筑风景线，蕴含了中国古代社会向中国近代社会的变迁史。作为西洋建筑文化的西来初地，它演绎了中西两种文化相互碰撞、叠加与融合的悲喜剧，开启了中西合璧建筑文化景观百多年来在天朝大地的延续、发展与共识，已熔铸为至今培育广州世界名城代表性的城市景观形态，有必要加以保护、利用与发扬。     

中国油港低碳绿色化发展的影响因素分析

构建低碳绿色油港应首先明确影响中国油港低碳绿色化发展的因素。运用系统分析的方法,提出中国油港低碳绿色化发展的8个因素、21个子因素,以帮助识别油港发展的＂非低碳、非绿色＂因素并找出其薄弱环节,同时在国内低碳绿色油港的建设方面为主管部门和相关企业提供决策参考。     

Adding functions to ensure regression converges

Regression fits a curve to data by minimizing a function of the residuals. The process of fitting a family of functions may fail to converge because the family of candidate functions has no minimum. After investigating what functions to add to a family to ensure a minimum exists, four families are examined. The family of polynomials needs no additional functions. Additional functions are found for the families of exponential growth curves, probit curves, and logistic curves. A sufficient condition tells when the minimum is not in the original family.     

Model diagnostics for marginal regression analysis of correlated binary data

We propose several diagnostic methods for checking the adequacy of marginal regression models for analyzing correlated binary data. We use a parametric marginal model based on latent variables and derive the projection (hat) matrix, Cook's distance, various residuals and Mahalanobis distance between the observed binary responses and the estimated probabilities for a cluster. Emphasized are several graphical methods including the simulated Q-Q plot, the half-normal probability plot with a simulated envelope, and the partial residual plot. The methods are illustrated with a real life example.