从传统走向现代——中国青少年研究及其基础理论建设的简要回顾与前瞻

对2007年以来三届"青少年研究基础理论建设研讨会"简要归纳总结发现,对问题的讨论有了更清晰的学术自觉也更加深入和透彻,但是讨论的主题也在不断的重复和争论中裹足不前,"逼迫"我们变换思维方式去瞻望青少年研究及其基础理论建设的发展前景。先从学科建设与基础理论建设、学理研究与问题研究的区分与关联上去把握青少年研究中几个基本问题的关系;进而从传统、现代、后现代的不同视角,对青少年研究及其理论建设演进中,其话语系统、哲学立场及其思维方式的历史继承性、发展必然性与内涵之互联交融的可能性加以多维度的探讨,以期对青少年研究及其理论建设的新趋势有所前瞻。     

新型电梯轿厢绝对位置检测传感器的研究

针对目前电梯轿厢位置检测时,增量式编码器存在位置零点偏移,大多绝对式编码器又受到量程限制等缺点,提 出了基于低功耗单片机的多圈数字式绝对位置传感器。设计了多圈绝对位置传感器的硬件结构,介绍了单圈磁绝对式 旋转编码器角度信号采集及多圈计数原理;设计了单片机接口电路,串行通信接口电路,电源与停电检测电路,多圈计数 以及停电唤醒电路等硬件电路;设计了传感器系统的主要智能化软件;采用低功耗待机技术,设计了外部电源停电情况 下依靠内部电池供电机制。实际应用结果表明该系统不仅具有精度高、功耗低等特点,且具有多圈宽量程位置检测和停 电位置记忆功能。该系统能够对电梯轿厢绝对位置实现高精度实时检测。     

Bayesian analysis of covariance under inverse Gaussian model

This paper considers the problem of analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) under the assumption of inverse Gaussian distribution for response variable from the Bayesian point of view. We develop a fully Bayesian model for ANCOVA based on the conjugate prior distributions for parameters contained in the model. The Bayes estimator of parameters, ANCOVA model and adjusted effects for both treatments and covariates along with predictive distribution of future observations are developed. We also provide the essentials for comparing adjusted treatments effects and adjusted factor effects. A simulation study and a real world application are also performed to illustrate and evaluate the proposed Bayesian model.     

Systematic handling of missing data in complex study designs – experiences from the Health 2000 and 2011 Surveys

We present a systematic approach to the practical and comprehensive handling of missing data motivated by our experiences of analyzing longitudinal survey data. We consider the Health 2000 and 2011 Surveys (BRIF8901) where increased non-response and non-participation from 2000 to 2011 was a major issue. The model assumptions involved in the complex sampling design, repeated measurements design, non-participation mechanisms and associations are presented graphically using methodology previously defined as a causal model with design, i.e. a functional causal model extended with the study design. This tool forces the statistician to make the study design and the missing-data mechanism explicit. Using the systematic approach, the sampling probabilities and the participation probabilities can be considered separately. This is beneficial when the performance of missing-data methods are to be compared. Using data from Health 2000 and 2011 Surveys and from national registries, it was found that multiple imputation removed almost all differences between full sample and estimated prevalences. The inverse probability weighting removed more than half and the doubly robust method 60% of the differences. These findings are encouraging since decreasing participation rates are a major problem in population surveys worldwide.     

基于遗传算法和TRIZ的产品服务系统优化设计方法

针对产品服务系统方案优化设计问题,分析了系统方案设计过程中主要影响因素,基于遗传算法和TRIZ理论提 出了产品服务系统方案优化设计方法。该方法可以优化产品服务系统的方案设计,并通过理想化程度值定量判定最优 方案设计。以污水处理设备为例,应用该方法获取产品服务系统最优的方案设计,并与其它方案进行对比,验证了该方 法的有效性。实际应用证明该方法不仅可以对产品服务系统方案设计的理想化程度进行定量的判定,还可以实现对系 统方案设计的全局最优搜索。     

科学发展观对中国特色社会主义理论体系的理论贡献

以党的十八大以来对科学发展观的新论述为考察对象,以科学发展观的理论形成为线索,从马克思主义中国化视角出 发,全面论述了科学发展观“以人为本”对于中国特色社会主义理论体系的地位与作用,在分析科学发展观理论渊源的同时,详 尽阐释了十八大以来关于科学发展观最鲜明的“精神实质”,并从“核心理念”、“理论品格”与“理论形态”三个层面对科学发展 观的内涵、意义与“中国特色社会主义理论体系”的理论贡献作了全面阐析。科学发展观不仅是马克思主义中国化的“最新成 果”,也是全面建成小康社会和现代化事业的行动指南。     

Factors Associated with Return Migration of First-Generation Immigrants in Belgium (2001–2011)

Belgium is a country with a long and diverse history of migration. Given the diverse context of immigration to Belgium, reasons for return migration will most likely vary as well. With this study, we want to quantify the return migration of Belgium’s immigrants and assess whether socio-economic, sociodemographic and health factors are related to return migration. Individually linked census and register data comprising the total Belgian first-generation immigrant population aged 25+ were used. Age-standardized emigration rates (ASER) by migrant origin and gender were calculated for the period 2001–2011. Additionally, relative return migration differences were calculated by country of origin and gender, adjusted for age group, length of stay, household composition, socio-economic indicators (education, home ownership and employment status) and self-rated health in 2001. Return migration was most common among immigrants from Spanish descent and from the neighbouring countries and higher among men than among women. Return migration was highly selective in terms of older age, lower length of stay in Belgium, not living with a partner or children, being high-educated, unemployed and in good health. Key issues for future research include examining the reasons for return migration, identifying the country of destination and accounting for household characteristics.     

An Objective Graphical Method for Testing Normal Distributional Assumptions using Probability Plots

Formulas for plotting probability and techniques for subjectively drawing lines on probability plots are reviewed. A method is presented for plotting data and drawing an objective line on the probability plot to obtain a test of the distributional assumption.     

The Equality of the Ordinary Least Squares Estimator and the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator

It is well known that the ordinary least squares estimator of Xβ in the general linear model E _y = Xβ, cov y = σ² V, can be the best linear unbiased estimator even if V is not a multiple of the identity matrix. This article presents, in a historical perspective, the development of the several conditions for the ordinary least squares estimator to be best linear unbiased. Various characterizations of these conditions, using generalized inverses and orthogonal projectors, along with several examples, are also given. In addition, a complete set of references is provided.     

Single-index modelling of conditional probabilities in two-way contingency tables

When analysing a contingency table, it is often worth relating the probabilities that a given individual falls into different cells from a set of predictors. These conditional probabilities are usually estimated using appropriate regression techniques. In particular, in this paper, a semiparametric model is developed. Essentially, it is only assumed that the effect of the vector of covariates on the probabilities can entirely be captured by a single index, which is a linear combination of the initial covariates. The estimation is then twofold: the coefficients of the linear combination and the functions linking this index to the related conditional probabilities have to be estimated. Inspired by the estimation procedures already proposed in the literature for single-index regression models, four estimators of the index coefficients are proposed and compared, from a theoretical point-of-view, but also practically, with the aid of simulations. Estimation of the link functions is also addressed.