城市人力资本外部性的识别——基于工业企业生产率视角的研究

人力资本外部性的存在具有重要的现实意义,它是政府进行教育投资和人力资本投资的重要决策依据.文章从工业企业生产率视角识别城市人力资本外部性,基于中国工业企业微观数据、人口普查分县资料和地级市统计数据,考虑城市人力资本变量的内生性后,采用两阶段最小二乘法,实证研究城市人力资本对工业企业生产率的影响.研究发现:在控制企业自身的人力资本后,城市大专以上学历人口占比越高,工业企业的产出越高,人力资本的溢出效应显著,且人力资本正外部性主要存在于人口规模300万以上的大城市.从工业内部看,行业内人力资本正外部性随城市规模扩大逐渐增强,而行业外人力资本正外部性随城市规模扩大逐渐减弱.从企业异质性看,高新技术企业、非国有企业和大企业从城市人力资本提高中获得的正向溢出效应更大.此外,城市外商直接投资和地方政府财政支出越高,地理区位距离港口越远,越不利于工业企业产出的提高.文章的研究结论表明增加人力资本投资,促进人力资本结构升级,发挥大城市人力资本溢出效应对新时期经济可持续增长尤为重要.     

面向新时代的国民经济核算研究议题及相关问题

本文结合国际国内研究动态分层次归纳、阐释当前国民经济核算的研究议题。具体包括:以国民账户体系2008版(SNA-2008)为起点的前沿研究,SNA中心框架的灵活运用研究,接驳中国国民经济核算体系(CSNA)及其实务的优化和创新研究,国民经济核算数据的综合应用研究。最后针对中国当前国民经济核算研究方法中存在的一些倾向性问题做讨论,比如是否过分关注与GDP的关联, 如何充分发挥卫星账户的作用等。     

Child Care Arrangements,Division of Household Labor and Other Employment Based Familial Predictors of Marital Adjustment Among Husbands of Employed Females in Pakistan

The primary purpose of the current study was to investigate the influence of division of household labor, child care arrangements, wife’s financial contribution, work-schedule of wife, perception of wife employment and wife’s work preference were contributing to marital adjustment of husbands of working married women. Additionally, it explored the role of wife’s financial contribution, perception of wife’s employment and wife’s work preference in formation of marital adjustment among husbands of working women. The data were collected through a self-structured questionnaire from 283 husbands of employed married women with one year of marital duration and at least one child. The data were collected from the city of Gujrat, province of Punjab, Pakistan. Factor analysis was run for reliability and validity analysis was executed to examine the validity of the existing scales used in the current study. Multiple linear regression analysis was used for model fit. Division of household labor, child care arrangements, wife’s financial contributions, wife’s work-schedule, the perception of wife’s employment, and wife’s work preferences contributed to the marital adjustment of husbands of working married women. Our results seemed to reflect fluctuating dimensions of gender role ideologies among families. Incorporating new predictors of marital adjustment into literature of marriage and family has been a sociological significance of the current study.     

职业角色体验促进幼儿社会性发展的研究

幼儿社会性的发展是在不断地社会交往中得以实现的，在纷繁的社会大环境中，不同的职业角色组成了一个个相对独立而又密切联系的单元，幼儿在成长的过程中逐渐加以熟悉和了解，其最初的职业意识来源于对父母职业的认知，渐渐地他们从游戏体验中尤其是通过职业角色的体验，对不同角色进行扮演，萌发自我对职业的意识，习得一定的交往技能，其社会性得以不断地发展。     

成就与不足:20世纪六七十年代河北省机井建设研究

1965年以后,中国的北方地区进入了长达50年干旱时期,为了解决海河流域长期干旱的问题,国家做出了抗旱打井的决定,并从1973年起纳入国家计划,在经费、设备等方面给予重点支持。河北是全国开展机井建设最早的省份,期间持续开展了大规模的群众性机井建设,是机井发展最快的时期。总的来看,河北省机井建设成绩很大,对改变农业生产面貌、扭转南粮北调起了重要作用。但也存在一定的不足,需要系统总结和深刻反思。     

21世纪以来我国教师教育研究图景与发展路向——基于2000-2018年CSSCI来源期刊的知识图谱分析

教师教育是教育事业的重中之重。通过中国知网检索21世纪以来CSSCI来源期刊中的相关文献，以其中2 171篇有关教师教育研究的论文为样本，运用文献计量分析可视化软件Cite Space对文献数量、作者贡献、研究热点、研究层次以及论文被引情况等进行详细统计与梳理，旨在通过知识图谱的方法客观地揭示21世纪以来我国教师教育研究图景，并对教师教育研究发展路向进行全景式分析与展望。就文献数量而言，教师教育研究曲折发展，整体呈上升趋势；就作者贡献而言，尚未形成教师教育研究的核心作者群体，作者大多为高等院校的专家学者，而一线教师、教研员较少；就研究热点而言，主要呈现出有关教师教育的理论研究、改革研究和国别研究三大研究主题；就研究层次而言，主要集中于基础研究。基于此，应进一步加强教师教育研究队伍建设，尽快形成教师教育研究核心作者群体；鼓励多种力量参与研究，进一步丰富研究层次；拓展研究领域，探索教师教育研究多元化发展的新路向。无论是党的十九大报告，还是《教师教育振兴行动计划（2018-2022年）》，都对新时代教师教育提出了更高的要求。师德教育如何推进，教师素质如何提高，教师待遇如何改善，教师教育模式如何创新，教师管理制度改革如何深化，教师教育研究共同体如何构建，这一系列问题需要教师教育研究者深入探索，在习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想和全国教育大会精神的指引下，为新时代高素质、专业化、创新型教师队伍的建设与发展建言献策。     

Estimation of Sobol's sensitivity indices under generalized linear models

We derive explicit formulas for Sobol's sensitivity indices (SSIs) under the generalized linear models (GLMs) with independent or multivariate normal inputs. We argue that the main-effect SSIs provide a powerful tool for variable selection under GLMs with identity links under polynomial regressions. We also show via examples that the SSI-based variable selection results are similar to the ones obtained by the random forest algorithm but without the computational burden of data permutation. Finally, applying our results to the problem of gene network discovery, we identify through the SSI analysis of a public microarray dataset several novel higher-order gene–gene interactions missed out by the more standard inference methods. The relevant functions for SSI analysis derived here under GLMs with identity, log, and logit links are implemented and made available in the R package Sobol sensitivity.     

Women’s experiences of decision-making and attitudes in relation to induction of labour: A survey study

BackgroundRates of induction of labour have been increasing globally to up to one in three pregnancies in many high-income countries. Although guidelines around induction, and strength of the underlying evidence, vary considerably by indication, shared decision-making is increasingly recognised as key. The aim of this study was to identify women’s mode of birth preferences and experiences of shared decision-making for induction of labour.MethodAn antenatal survey of women booked for an induction at eight Sydney hospitals was conducted. A bespoke questionnaire was created assessing women’s demographics, indication for induction, pregnancy model of care, initial birth preferences, and their experience of the decision-making process.ResultsOf 189 survey respondents (58% nulliparous), major reported reasons for induction included prolonged pregnancy (38%), diabetes (25%), and suspected fetal growth restriction (8%). Most respondents (72%) had hoped to labour spontaneously. Major findings included 19% of women not feeling like they had a choice about induction of labour, 26% not feeling adequately informed (or uncertain if informed), 17% not being given alternatives, and 30% not receiving any written information on induction of labour. Qualitative responses highlight a desire of women to be more actively involved in decision-making.ConclusionA substantial minority of women did not feel adequately informed or prepared, and indicated they were not given alternatives to induction. Suggested improvements include for face-to-face discussions to be supplemented with written information, and for shared decision-making interventions, such as the introduction of decision aids and training, to be implemented and evaluated.     

Child protection and fathering where there is domestic violence: Contradictions and consequences

Children live in different contexts of protection and vulnerability when exposed to domestic violence. The negative impacts for many children are consistent and widely acknowledged. However, the implication that this requires men who use violence to address their fathering has been slower to emerge. This article draws from 69 in‐depth qualitative interviews with men, women, and workers across four men's behaviour change programmes in rural Victoria, Australia. Particular attention is given to men's attitudes to their fathering and the formal and informal consequences they experienced as a result of their violence and its impact on their fathering. Although most men came to recognize that their violence impacted their children, they failed to make the connection that the involvement of statutory child protection services in their lives was a direct consequence of their abusive behaviour. This article explores this disconnection by fathers who use violence, their attitude to the involvement of statutory child protection services, and identifies the implications for social work practitioners in addressing this issue.     

Influence diagnostics for the structural sharpe model under normal/independent distributions

A method is proposed in this paper to assess the local influence of minor perturbations for the Sharpe model when the normal distribution is replaced by normal/independent (NI) distributions. The family of NI distributions is an attractive class of symmetric heavy-tailed densities that includes as special cases the normal, t-Student, slash, and the contaminated normal distributions. Since the returns of the market are not observable, the statistical analysis is carried out in the context of an errors-in-variables model. An influence analysis for detecting influential observations (atypical returns) is developed to investigate the sensitivity of the maximum likelihood estimators. Diagnostic measures are obtained based on the conditional expectation of the complete-data log-likelihood function. The results are illustrated by using a set of shares of companies traded in the Chilean stock market.