基于循环经济理论的产业集群生态化发展评价研究

引入循环经济理念,建立科学评价产业集群生态化发展的体系和方法,对引导产业集群合理有序的发展具有十分重要的意义。从经济效益、环境效益和社会绩效三个方面着手,构建符合循环经济特征的产业集群生态化发展评价指标体系,计算出各指标的评价值及其在评价体系中的权重以后,采用线性加权求和法求得产业集群生态化发展的综合评分值,既可对产业集群某一时期生态化发展水平及三个维度间的关系作出客观的评价,找到存在的问题和差距。     

开放经济下OFDI对产业结构升级效应及传导路径

开放经济下对外直接投资(OFDI)已成为我国融入世界经济的主要途径,在优化产业结构、推进经济转型等方面扮演着重要角色。根据OFDI与产业结构升级及传导路径的互动机理分析,在对安徽省OFDI投资概况和产业结构现状进行分析的基础上,选取2003—2017年相关数据为样本构建VAR模型,运用ADF检验、脉冲响应函数等方法从产业结构总水平角度,实证分析得出短期内安徽省OFDI所能带来的产业结构升级效应并不显著的结论。进而从具体传导路径角度,采用主成分分析法,从10个变量中提取主成分构建VAR模型,运用脉冲响应等方法实证分析得出安徽省OFDI可通过贸易、省内投资、就业和技术路径来促进产业结构升级。为此,安徽省应扩大OFDI规模,提升OFDI质量和效益;增强企业竞争实力和科技创新能力,优化对外投资结构;发挥政府宏观调控和政策引导作用,加大对企业的扶持力度。     

Discovering hidden statistical issues through individual-level models in ecological studies

ABSTRACT

In ecological studies, individual inference is made based on results from ecological models. Interpretation of the results requires caution since ecological analysis on group level may not hold in the individual level within the groups, leading to ecological fallacy. Using an ecological regression example for analyzing voting behaviors, we highlight that the explicit use of individual-level models is crucial in understanding the results of ecological studies. In particular, we clarify three relevant statistical issues for each individual-level models: assessment of the uncertainty of parameter estimates obtained from a wrong model, the use of shrinkage estimation method for simultaneous estimation of many parameters, and the necessity of sensitivity analysis rather than adhering to one seemingly most compelling assumption.     

Procedural (in)justice,emotions, and compliance

The procedural justice model has become widely recognized as a key crime prevention and reduction strategy, spurring its adoption across police agencies throughout the United States in an effort to address mounting concerns regarding police use of force. Recent critiques, however, have called attention to the need for greater examination of potential contributing factors that are underdeveloped in investigations of the procedural justice model, including the role of emotions. This article takes stock of interdisciplinary advancements to critically examine scholarly investigations exploring associations between procedural (in)justice, emotions, and compliance behaviors within the context of police-citizen interactions. In doing so, continued gaps are identified. Lastly, this article concludes by identifying future pathways and recommendations for the scholarly advancement of our understanding of emotions and their continued relevance to the procedural justice model.     

“（是）……的”类句式已然义的层次性分析——以“S（是）AV（O）的”句式为例

以学界广为关注的“S（是）AV（（））的”句式为例，重点分析“（是）……的”类句式在语境、词汇和句法三个层面所显示的不同已然义特征，并以此为基础对国内外关于已然义“（是）……的”类句式的相关研究进行简要的评价。     

Racial diversity in the suburbs: how race-neutral responses to demographic change perpetuate inequity in suburban school districts

Suburbs across the US are experiencing dramatic demographic shifts, yet there is little research available on how suburban school districts are dealing with these changes. In this article, we examine the discourses surrounding race and demographic change in three suburban school districts that have been undergoing rapid demographic changes and which contain demographically distinct areas within their district boundaries. Utilizing a critical discourse analysis (CDA) approach, we analyze how the policy context (federal and state) frames actors’ discourses and understandings of race, paying particular attention to the political and institutional factors affecting school policy. We illustrate how the discourse, in turn, is related to the actions (or inactions) taken by district and school leaders to respond to demographic change. We conclude the article by discussing policy implications and potential challenges districts may face in the future if efforts to purposively address racial changes continue to be avoided.     

Whither practice-near research in the modernization programme? Policy blunders in children's services

In this article, we lament the effects of practice-distant research and associated policy initiatives on contemporary children's services in England. In the last decade, as a result of high profile inquiries into non-accidental child deaths, statutory children's social care services in the UK have been subject to a wide-reaching ‘modernization’ programme. We studied decision-making in the high blame environment of local authority children's services. Our research sought to examine the relationship between performance management and the impact of anticipated blame within the decision-making practices of those providing, supervising and managing these services. We show that systems and technologies can be developed which both assist the users in their daily work and achieve desired organizational goals, but without an ethnographically informed, practice-near approach, unsafe work regimes and practices can ensue.     

地铁对城市现代化的影响

地铁是城市发展现代化的一个重要标志。本文分析了国内外城市地铁的构建、运营以及地铁在城市化进程中的作用，进而系统阐释了地铁对广州城市发展、社会生活及生态环境的影响和意义。     

To be or not to be valid in testing the significance of the slope in simple quantitative linear models with autocorrelated errors

In this article, the validity of procedures for testing the significance of the slope in quantitative linear models with one explanatory variable and first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] errors is analyzed in a Monte Carlo study conducted in the time domain. Two cases are considered for the regressor: fixed and trended versus random and AR(1). In addition to the classical t -test using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator of the slope and its standard error, we consider seven t -tests with n-2\,\hbox{df} built on the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimator or an estimated GLS estimator, three variants of the classical t -test with different variances of the OLS estimator, two asymptotic tests built on the Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimator, the F -test for fixed effects based on the Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) estimator in the mixed-model approach, two t -tests with n - 2 df based on first differences (FD) and first-difference ratios (FDR), and four modified t -tests using various corrections of the number of degrees of freedom. The FDR t -test, the REML F -test and the modified t -test using Dutilleul's effective sample size are the most valid among the testing procedures that do not assume the complete knowledge of the covariance matrix of the errors. However, modified t -tests are not applicable and the FDR t -test suffers from a lack of power when the regressor is fixed and trended ( i.e. , FDR is the same as FD in this case when observations are equally spaced), whereas the REML algorithm fails to converge at small sample sizes. The classical t -test is valid when the regressor is fixed and trended and autocorrelation among errors is predominantly negative, and when the regressor is random and AR(1), like the errors, and autocorrelation is moderately negative or positive. We discuss the results graphically, in terms of the circularity condition defined in repeated measures ANOVA and of the effective sample size used in correlation analysis with autocorrelated sample data. An example with environmental data is presented.     

论儒家伦理精神与自我教育意识

社会管理除了需要从社会外部加强政府管理职能的创新与制度建设,还必须从社会内部增强社会各阶层自我教育意识,从而提高其自我管理能力。外在社会制度管理与内在自我道德教育结合,才能实现社会管理长期和谐稳定的理想目标。自我教育意识的增强可以从儒家伦理精神中汲取其注重仁义、自觉服从社会整体利益和长远利益的精华,为现代社会成员自觉贯彻执行社会管理制度提供道德保障与内在动力。