民主与政治参与

一般认为政治参与是民主发展的标准和尺度。文章从民主与政治参与的关系入手,主要探讨现代民主制度下政治参与存在的局限和不足之处,特别以最近一二十年世界范围发生的巨大变化为背景,说明有关民主与政治参与方面比较容易引起误解的问题。     

中国传统诚信思想及其对构建和谐社会的启示

中国传统诚信思想丰富多彩,既蕴涵着超越时空、具有现实价值的优秀成分,又含有受到历史局限性制约的糟粕。客观评析中国传统诚信思想的得与失,并对其进行创造性的合理转换,对于我们坚持批判继承的原则,取其精华,去其糟粕,构建社会主义和谐社会具有重要的理论价值。     

社会工作行政：缘起、困顿与趋向

从社会工作的发展历程看,社会工作行政一直伴随而行,在服务社群中实现其基本功能和拓展功能,但也存在如组织成本、有限理性、目标替代、激励机制等未引起重视的潜在局限。适应计划、系统和专业的发展趋向,社会工作行政将根据环境状况加以调适和重构,形成新型行政结构和关系,完善其各项职能。     

基于SVM的Web日志挖掘及潜在客户发现

潜在的客户资源是商家未来的利润来源,发现了潜在的客户就可以制定相应的商业决策,并进行有针对性的客户关系管理。使用SVM方法对Web日志文件进行挖掘,以发现站点访问者中潜在客户的共同行为模式,并将其分为不同级别的目标客户群。同时,通过试验4种不同比例的训练样本,研究了非对称数据对分类结果的影响,以期获得较优的模型。     

管理学基础研究的理性信息人假设与势科学理论

基于中国文化的管理学情景依赖表现在2个方面:其一,人性假设的多维性、立体性和对称性,即信息人假设:信息人生存于货币、权力、知识、情感、艺术、虚拟抽象6维信息势(场)空间,信息势的持续增长达到了非线性作用的临界值,所以,信息人社会既是创新社会又是风险社会。其二,管理过程的整体抽象性,最具代表性的是老子的势成之理论:宇宙演化与社会发展是由不同层次上的势推动的,真空势推动了宇宙暴涨,量子势是量子化的唯一缘由,化学势、生物势是化学反应和生物成长的根本动力,信息势则是人才成长和组织发展的动力之源。管理学实现创新应对风险的根本战略就是生产更多的信息量、营造更大的信息势。     

A Systematic Uncertainty Analysis of an Evaluative Fate and Exposure Model

Multimedia fate and exposure models are widely used to regulate the release of toxic chemicals, to set cleanup standards for contaminated sites, and to evaluate emissions in life-cycle assessment. CalTOX, one of these models, is used to calculate the potential dose, an outcome that is combined with the toxicity of the chemical to determine the Human Toxicity Potential (HTP), used to aggregate and compare emissions. The comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in the potential dose calculation in this article serves to provide the information necessary to evaluate the reliability of decisions based on the HTP A framework for uncertainty analysis in multimedia risk assessment is proposed and evaluated with four types of uncertainty. Parameter uncertainty is assessed through Monte Carlo analysis. The variability in landscape parameters is assessed through a comparison of potential dose calculations for different regions in the United States. Decision rule uncertainty is explored through a comparison of the HTP values under open and closed system boundaries. Model uncertainty is evaluated through two case studies, one using alternative formulations for calculating the plant concentration and the other testing the steady state assumption for wet deposition. This investigation shows that steady state conditions for the removal of chemicals from the atmosphere are not appropriate and result in an underestimate of the potential dose for 25% of the 336 chemicals evaluated.     

网络游戏成瘾量表研究——事件相关脑电位辅助分析

在我国网络游戏产业发展迅猛,网民数量持续高速增长,但同时也出现了网游玩家沉迷于网络游戏中而产生心理依赖的成瘾症状.目前对网络成瘾的概念、界定指标和测量工具都存在较大争议,缺乏网络成瘾界定的系统研究.本研究在以往多种量表的基础上,采用事件相关脑电位方法,采用成瘾Stroop实验范式,找到了可以区分网络游戏成瘾者和正常网络使用者的客观电生理指标,验证了这个分类.通过对这群已经被验证了的两组被试的问卷测量,形成了"网络游戏成瘾量表",并依据测量结果,给出了推断被试是否成瘾的总分分界值.然后,采用重测信度方法,验证了量表的稳定性和可靠性.最后,用测量预留的成瘾被试,验证了"网络游戏成瘾量表"的有效性.     

企业产品创新的扩散与采纳者的行为决策模式研究

在SIR模型基础上,根据信息经济学理论从个体层面研究了产品创新扩散过程中采纳者行为决策的决定因子及其行为选择方式,同时得出了一些促进产品创新扩散的重要结论.     

浅析艺术设计实践课学生成绩的考核依据

艺术设计类课程的成绩考核和评定方式依据应该是和其他学科有所区别的，并具有一定的特殊性。笔者尝试把学生“分数评核”区分为在设计思维学习活动中的表现和在作业效果所呈现的设计思维能力两种物象形式，来作为评定的基本依据。学生设计及创意分值评估，具体的评核依据应该以“想象力、好奇心、投入感、理解力和分析力”这五个主要方面同步考察。其中，学生的想象力和分析能力应该是最为重要的。     

Mapping Invasive Species Risks with Stochastic Models: A Cross-Border United States-Canada Application for Sirex noctilio Fabricius

Nonindigenous species have caused significant impacts to North American forests despite past and present international phytosanitary efforts. Though broadly acknowledged, the risks of pest invasions are difficult to quantify as they involve interactions between many factors that operate across a range of spatial and temporal scales: the transmission of invading organisms via various pathways, their spread and establishment in new environments. Our study presents a stochastic simulation approach to quantify these risks and associated uncertainties through time in a unified fashion. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. We simulate new potential entries of S. noctilio as a stochastic process, based on recent volumes of marine shipments of commodities from countries where S. noctilio is established, as well as the broad dynamics of foreign marine imports. The results are then linked with a spatial model that simulates the spread of S. noctilio within the geographical distribution of its hosts (pines) while incorporating existing knowledge about its behavior in North American landscapes. Through replications, this approach yields a spatial representation of S. noctilio risks and uncertainties in a single integrated product. The approach should also be appealing to decisionmakers, since it accounts for projected flows of commodities that may serve as conduits for pest entry. Our 30-year forecasts indicate high establishment probability in Ontario, Quebec, and the northeastern United States, but further southward expansion of S. noctilio is uncertain, ultimately depending on the impact of recent international treatment standards for wood packing materials.