中国电力消费周期的路径演化识别——基于Markov区制转移模型

基于1980-2016年中国第一产业、第二产业（工业、建筑业）和第三产业的年度电力消费数据,采用H-P滤波技术对中国电力消费的趋势成分和波动成分轨迹进行刻画,运用马尔科夫区制转移[MS（n）-AR（p）]模型分析中国电力消费周期在各区制间的动态转移过程,识别改革开放以来中国电力消费周期的路径演化特征,在此基础上预测未来5年中国电力消费周期的区制分布情况。研究发现:（1）中国电力消费增长率的波动程度自2003年明显缩窄,且从2007年开始进入下行周期。（2）中国电力消费周期具有较强的稳定性,不易向着其收缩期和扩张期跨越。且中国电力消费处于"低速增长区制"的年份往往对应着中国经济发展相对趋缓的大环境。（3）2014-2015年中国电力消费向其收缩期转移的迹象明显,但预测结果表明,未来5年中国电力消费整体上将继续保持稳定增长的趋势。     

The State of Research in Latino Academic Attainment

In this essay, I present an interdisciplinary examination of the state of research in Latino education, addressing not only the cultural forces influencing Latinos’ educational attainment, but also the structural conditions faced by them—as a racialized minority group—throughout their schooling and that have a cumulative effect on their academic attainment. Overall, I suggest that by engaging in a critical review of the literature on Latinos’ educational attainment, the reader will acknowledge that the racially driven hierarchical structural arrangements are highly responsible for the patterns observed.     

A new test for multivariate normality by combining extreme and nonextreme BHEP tests

In this article, we propose a new multiple test procedure for assessing multivariate normality, which combines BHEP (Baringhaus–Henze–Epps–Pulley) tests by considering extreme and nonextreme choices of the tuning parameter in the definition of the BHEP test statistic. Monte Carlo power comparisons indicate that the new test presents a reasonable power against a wide range of alternative distributions, showing itself to be competitive against the most recommended procedures for testing a multivariate hypothesis of normality. We further illustrate the use of the new test for the Fisher Iris dataset.     

论行政诉讼非法证据类型

非法证据排除规则最早在美国确立并得到发展,形成一套比较完整的体系。我国对非法证据排除规则的探讨很长时期仅停留在理论阶段,2012年《刑事诉讼法》修改中采纳并确立这一证据规则,使其从理论探讨变为实践,也为行政诉讼非法证据排除规则的探讨提供了很好的借鉴。目前,行政诉讼法正处于修改时期,以现有的法律规范为基础探讨行政诉讼非法证据的类型及其判断标准显得尤为必要。     

论老年人犯罪从宽暨免死的年龄标准与立法模式——以《刑法修正案(八)》为视角

老年人犯罪从宽的年龄标准应当有别于老年人免死的年龄标准。当前,中国对老年人犯罪从宽的年龄宜规定为"年满70周岁",而对老年人犯罪免死的年龄则宜规定为"年满75周岁"。对老年人犯罪从宽应当与对未成年人犯罪从宽相一致,统一规定为"应当从轻或者减轻处罚",而没有必要区分故意和过失犯罪分别规定。考虑到老年人犯罪免死的根据、刑罚目的和国际上的普遍做法,中国应当免除所有老年人犯罪的死刑,而不应有例外。     

Feminist power and its implications on Uganda’s malaria communication campaign

This paper examines power and its manifestation in Uganda’s “Stop Malaria Campaign.” It specifically questions the apparent radical feminism, which is conceptualized as a quest for power, and how such excesses drive implementation of the campaign. The paper explains data collected through focus group discussions and key informant interviews using feminist communication theory as informed by the critical ideas of feminism and power. These three ideas help to put into perspective: domination of the campaign by one gender, interpretation of the campaign’s objectives to suit that one gender, and communication methods used in the campaign. Analysis of the above three processes shows that men are the weaker gender in the malaria prevention drive, an idea that has clashed with the existing male chauvinism on which several families still thrive in Africa. A view that radical feminism should be seen as an organized form of power that needs to be checked if Uganda’s malaria communication campaign is to be implemented successfully is herein proposed, along with some solutions to the challenges.     

论“学报体”及其改良

"学报体"指发表在我国社科学术期刊上的文章所体现出的某些共性,既涉及题材内容,又涉及风格气象。我国社科期刊自创立至今,事实上存在着作为"正体"的和作为"伪体"的两种"学报体"文章,前者应得到护持,后者应受到贬斥。"正体"文章之长的主要体现是:分学科门类表述高深问题研究新得;举充分依据细密论证大小论点;以人文关怀给力社会发展;有较多行文规范服务内容表达。"伪体"文章之弊主要表现为:形式完备而内容贫瘠;"八股化"程度严重;缺少淑世情怀。当今"学报体"文章的改良,应先从三个方面做起:变文章评价由"重量轻质"为"重质轻量";变文章体式由"一体独大"为"众体并茂";变文章语言由"重质轻文"为"质文双重"。     

A latent variable model for analyzing mixed longitudinal (k,l)-inflated count and ordinal responses

A random effects model for analyzing mixed longitudinal count and ordinal data is presented where the count response is inflated in two points (k and l) and an (k,l)-Inflated Power series distribution is used as its distribution. A full likelihood-based approach is used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of the model. For data with non-ignorable missing values models with probit model for missing mechanism are used.The dependence between longitudinal sequences of responses and inflation parameters are investigated using a random effects approach. Also, to investigate the correlation between mixed ordinal and count responses of each individuals at each time, a shared random effect is used. In order to assess the performance of the model, a simulation study is performed for a case that the count response has (k,l)-Inflated Binomial distribution. Performance comparisons of count-ordinal random effect model, Zero-Inflated ordinal random effects model and (k,l)-Inflated ordinal random effects model are also given. The model is applied to a real social data set from the first two waves of the national longitudinal study of adolescent to adult health (Add Health study). In this data set, the joint responses are the number of days in a month that each individual smoked as the count response and the general health condition of each individual as the ordinal response. For the count response there is incidence of excess values of 0 and 30.     

国际商事仲裁裁决效力考辨

关于“国际性”与“商事”内涵的界定，已呈现出由国内标准向国际标准演进的趋势。此种趋势一方面导致了二者解释的逐步扩大，另一方面也促成各国对二者内涵的趋同认识。相比较而言，“裁决”内涵的界定受国内法影响较多，但仍应以“解决了纠纷”作为“裁决”的基本构成要件。建构在以上三个基本概念基础之上的国际商事仲裁裁决的效力，则主要是指裁决对当事人、各相关仲裁庭和法院所产生的保护力、拘束力和执行力，     

Confidence interval estimation and hypothesis testing for a common correlation coefficient

Several procedures have been proposed for testing the hypothesis that all off-diagonal elements of the correlation matrix of a multivariate normal distribution are equal. If the hypothesis of equal correlation can be accepted, it is then of interest to estimate and perhaps test hypotheses for the common correlation. In this paper, two versions of five different test statistics are compared via simulation in terms of adequacy of the normal approximation, coverage probabilities of confidence intervals, control of Type I error, and power. The results indicate that two test statistics based on the average of the Fisher z-transforms of the sample correlations should be used in most cases. A statistic based on the sample eigenvalues also gives reasonable results for confidence intervals and lower-tailed tests.