A Comparison of Estimation Methods on the Coverage Probability of Satterthwaite Confidence Intervals for Assay Precision with Unbalanced Data

Construction of closed-form confidence intervals on linear combinations of variance components were developed generically for balanced data and studied mainly for one-way and two-way random effects analysis of variance models. The Satterthwaite approach is easily generalized to unbalanced data and modified to increase its coverage probability. They are applied on measures of assay precision in combination with (restricted) maximum likelihood and Henderson III Type 1 and 3 estimation. Simulations of interlaboratory studies with unbalanced data and with small sample sizes do not show superiority of any of the possible combinations of estimation methods and Satterthwaite approaches on three measures of assay precision. However, the modified Satterthwaite approach with Henderson III Type 3 estimation is often preferred above the other combinations.     

Stabilizing the Performance of Kurtosis Estimator of Multivariate Data

The estimation of the kurtosis parameter of the underlying distribution plays a central role in many statistical applications. The central theme of the article is to improve the estimation of the kurtosis parameter using a priori information. More specifically, we consider the problem of estimating kurtosis parameter of a multivariate population when some prior information regarding the the parameter is available. The rationale is that the sample estimator of the kurtosis parameter has a large estimation error. In this situation we consider shrinkage and pretest estimation methodologies and reappraise their statistical properties. The estimation based on these strategies yield relatively smaller estimation error in comparison with the sample estimator in the candidate subspace. A large sample theory of the suggested estimators are developed and compared. The results demonstrate that suggested estimators outperform the estimator based on the sample data only in the candidate subspace. In an effort to appreciate the relative behavior of the estimators in a finite sample scenario, a Monte-carlo simulation study is planned and performed. The result of simulation study strongly corroborates the asymptotic result. To illustrate the application of the estimators, some example are showcased based on recently published data.     

一类新的SBO及其在GM(1,1)中的应用研究

利用缓冲算子提高数据序列光滑性是提高灰色GM(1,1)模型预测精度的重要途径之一。在对缓冲算子和已有强化缓冲算子研究的基础上,构造了一类新的强化缓冲算子(strengthening buffer operator,SBO),有效地解决了冲击扰动数据序列在建模预测过程中常常出现的定量预测结果与定性分析结论不符的问题,实例分析结果表明:这类新的强化缓冲算子能显著提高数据预测模型的预测精度。     

习近平新时代扶贫重要论述的政治伦理意蕴

习近平扶贫重要论述是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的重要组成部分,是中国特色扶贫思想的重大理论创新成果,是实现“小康梦”“中国梦”的重要理论支撑,也为构建没有贫困的人类命运共同体提供中国智慧。习近平扶贫重要论述内涵丰富、博大精深,是新时代中国共产党增强执政合法性和厚植执政基础的重大政治思想和理论创新,具有深刻的政治伦理意蕴:“以人民为中心”是扶贫重要论述的政治伦理基点;“共享”是扶贫重要论述的政治伦理原则;“制度正义”是扶贫重要论述的政治伦理追求;“以人为本”是扶贫重要论述的政治伦理规范;“全球责任、正义与道义”是扶贫重要论述的世界贫困治理政治伦理导向。     

培力视角下精准扶贫的路径研究

应用可视化技术对有关精准扶贫研究的文献进行了梳理和分析,概括总结了学术研究的基本趋势。在此基础上依托实 务工作的具体经验围绕培力理论、抗逆力理论等多元解释范式从社区培力、个体培力等纬度出发,论述了提升贫困户抗逆力的 具体路径和工作机制。认为必须从强化贫困户自身的主体权能、夯实社区生态系统的角度出发,通过主体赋权、资本项目反 哺、程序规范和控制等手段提升贫困群众、贫困地区的潜能和社会连结,以推动扶贫工作的深入研发和持续发展。     

精密谐波传动系统的动态模型研究(英文)

提出了精密控制系统中谐波齿轮传动的新的数学模型,该模型综合研究了摩擦和传动挠性的影响。模型用函数描绘了谐波传动的特性,分析了谐波传动中电机一侧和载荷一侧的摩擦力,将复杂的非线性摩擦力表述为位置和速度的函数,摩擦力中的平均摩擦用二次函数表示,周期性变化的部分用傅里叶级数描述,试验数据和仿真结果的一致性证明了该模型的有效性。     

程度与精度的逻辑差粗糙集模型

基于程度与精度的逻辑差需求,提出了程度与精度的逻辑差粗糙集模型,并定义了粗糙集区域概念。通过变精度近似与程度近似的转化公式,得到了粗糙集区域的基本结构,提出了计算粗糙集区域的常规算法和结构算法,进行了算法分析与比较,探索并得到了模型在决策表中的应用方向。通过该模型拓展了程度粗糙集模型和经典粗糙集模型。     

Deal or no deal? How round vs precise percentage offers and price-ending mimicry affect impasse risk in over 25 million eBay negotiations

Negotiations can end with a successful deal or with an impasse. To minimize the impasse risk, how assertive and precise should negotiators’ first offers be? Recent studies diverge in their findings as to the advantages and disadvantages of making round vs precise offers. Based on over 25 million eBay negotiations, the present research establishes correlational evidence that buyer offers at round percentages of the seller’s list price—for instance, exactly 50% (75%, 90%, etc.)—coincide with a markedly smaller impasse risk than offers just above (e.g., 50.1%) or just below (49.9%) these round percentages. We also find that buyers who mimic sellers’ list price precision (e.g., offering $89.95 for a product listed at $99.99) and exact price endings ($30.13 for a list price of $40.13) incur markedly smaller impasse risks. Our findings show that the effectiveness of buyers’ round vs precise offers depends on the roundness of the seller’s list price, therefore extending previous research that focused on offer precision without taking the opponent’s list price into account. We discuss promising avenues for future research on the interpersonal effects of offer precision and price-ending mimicry.     

突破激励困境:数字情境下企业实现精准激励的机制——基于海尔链群合约的探索性案例研究

随着数字技术在激励领域运用的不断深化,企业突破激励困境、提高激励效果的需求愈加强烈,精准激励概念应运而生。基于海尔链群合约实践,探索了企业实现精准激励的过程,以及数字技术对精准激励形成的作用机制。研究发现:(1)实现精准激励需要具备激励目标一致化、激励机制立体化、激励过程可视化与激励结果精准化四个关键因素,并注重以激励结果推进未来激励目标设定,形成激励循环;(2)数字技术的作用主要体现在达成共识、规划路径、激发动力、形成良性循环四个方面;(3)数字情境下的精准激励机制能够为突破棘轮效应、团队“搭便车”等经典激励困境提供新思路。因此,企业应强化数字技术在激励实践中的应用,实现精准激励,提升激励效果,助力企业价值创造。     

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