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101.
ABSTRACT We present a method to approximate and forecast, on an entire interval, a continuous-time process. For this purpose, we use the modelization of ARH(l) processes, defined by Bosq (1991). We deal with the practical problem of the discretization of the observed trajectories and approximate them by means of spline functions. We show by simulations that for well-chosen smoothing parameters, good prediction can be obtained in comparison with the “predictable” part of the process. Finally, we apply this model to forecast road traffic and compare it with a SARIMA model. 相似文献
102.
胡志勇 《广州大学学报(社会科学版)》2003,2(8):1-6
本文以ST公司预警的相关判别模型为基础,经验地揭示了会计报表信息质量对ST公司预警误判的影响。研究表明:我国ST公司预警误判的原因在很大程度上与会计报表信息质量有关。为此,本文建议加快具体会计准则颁布和实施步伐,不断强化审计责任和监管部门的责任,提高会计信息质量。 相似文献
103.
A smoothing procedure for discrete time failure data is proposed which allows for the inclusion of covariates. This purely nonparametric method is based on discrete or continuous kernel smoothing techniques that gives a compromise between the data and smoothness. The method may be used as an exploratory tool to uncover the underlying structure or as an alternative to parametric methods when prediction is the primary objective. Confidence intervals are considered and alternative techniques of cross validation based choices of smoothing parameters are investigated. 相似文献
104.
S. M. Tam 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》1986,28(3):345-353
Several results relating to the optimal prediction of regression coefficients and random variables under a general linear model with stochastic coefficients are presented. These results are then applied to the analysis of repeated sample surveys over time. In particular, if the finite population can be modelled by a superpopulation model, a fully efficient method for the analysis of repeated surveys is proposed. 相似文献
105.
Environmental variables have an important effect on the reliability of many products such as coatings and polymeric composites. Long-term prediction of the performance or service life of such products must take into account the probabilistic/stochastic nature of the outdoor weather. In this article, we propose a time series modeling procedure to model the time series data of daily accumulated degradation. Daily accumulated degradation is the total amount of degradation accrued within one day and can be obtained by using a degradation rate model for the product and the weather data. The fitted model of the time series can then be used to estimate the future distribution of cumulative degradation over a period of time, and to compute reliability measures such as the probability of failure. The modeling technique and estimation method are illustrated using the degradation of a solar reflector material. We also provide a method to construct approximate confidence intervals for the probability of failure. 相似文献
106.
Ralph C. Ward Leonard Egede Viswanathan Ramakrishnan Lewis Frey Robert Neal Axon Clara Libby E. Dismuke 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(18):4642-4655
AbstractResearch involving administrative healthcare data to study patient outcomes requires the investigator to account for the patient’s disease burden in order to reduce the potential for biased results. Here we develop a comorbidity summary score based on variable importance measures derived from several statistical and machine learning methods and show it has superior predictive performance to the Elixhauser and Charlson indices when used to predict 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year mortality. We used two large Veterans Administration cohorts to develop and validate the summary score and compared predictive performance using the area under ROC curve (AUC) and the Brier score. 相似文献
107.
108.
Barry R. Davis 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(9):1161-1175
A nonparametric inference algorithm developed by Davis and Geman (1983) is extended problem. The algorithm and applied to a medical prediction employs an estimation procedure for acquiring pairwise statistics among variables of a binary data set, allows for the data-driven creation of interaction terms among the variables, and employs a decision rule which asymptotically gives the minimum expected error. The inference procedure was designed for large data sets but has been extended via the method of cross-validation to encompass smaller data sets. 相似文献
109.
Suppose that the length of time in years for which a business operates until failure has a Pareto distribution. Let x1 ≤ x2 x3 ≤…≤zk denote the survival lifetimes of the first k of a random sample of n businesses. Bayesian predictions are to be made on the ordered failure times of t h e remaining (n-k) businesses, using the conditional probability density function. Examples are given to illustrate our results. 相似文献
110.
Shortest prediction intervals for a future observation from the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution are obtained from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. Comparisons are made with alternative intervals obtained via inversion. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to assess the approximate intervals. 相似文献