Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French Cold-Smoked Salmon: I. Quantitative Exposure Assessment

A quantitative assessment of the exposure to Listeria monocytogenes from cold-smoked salmon (CSS) consumption in France is developed. The general framework is a second-order (or two-dimensional) Monte Carlo simulation, which characterizes the uncertainty and variability of the exposure estimate. The model takes into account the competitive bacterial growth between L. monocytogenes and the background competitive flora from the end of the production line to the consumer phase. An original algorithm is proposed to integrate this growth in conditions of varying temperature. As part of a more general project led by the French Food Safety Agency (Afssa), specific data were acquired and modeled for this quantitative exposure assessment model, particularly time-temperature profiles, prevalence data, and contamination-level data. The sensitivity analysis points out the main influence of the mean temperature in household refrigerators and the prevalence of contaminated CSS on the exposure level. The outputs of this model can be used as inputs for further risk assessment.     

Prediction in Some Poisson Errors in Variables Models

Predictive distributions are developed and illustrated for prediction in some Poisson errors in variables models. Two different situations in which multiplicative treatment effects are appropriate are considered within the context of predicting counts of road accidents. Hierarchical prior structures are investigated, and numerical integration and Gibbs sampling routines are used to derive the predictive and posterior probabilities. Examples of analyses are provided with data from road accidents in Sweden.     

论法院依职权调查取证

在审理对象的形成和证据的提出层面实行辩论主义是我国民事司法改革的方向，但是在强调当事人自我责任的同时，也不应忽略法院的作用。如果过分限制法院依职权调查取证的权力，既不利于法院在诉讼中发现真实，也不利于充分保障当事人的程序权利与实体权利，可能造成诉讼能力薄弱者无法实现实体公正。从有利于发现真实、保护当事人合法权益、实现实体公正的角度考虑，有必要适当拓宽我国法院依职权调查取证的范围。     

Forecasting mortality rates via density ratio modeling

The authors propose a semiparametric approach to modeling and forecasting age‐specific mortality in the United States. Their method is based on an extension of a class of semiparametric models to time series. It combines information from several time series and estimates the predictive distribution conditional on past data. The conditional expectation, which is the most commonly used predictor in practice, is the first moment of this distribution. The authors compare their method to that of Lee and Carter.     

刑事证据制度改革的相关思考

从介绍证据立法的紧迫性和必要性入手,对完善证据立法的意义、构建模式、现行立法现状及存在的主要问题进行了系统地分析,并在参考借鉴国外相关成熟的做法的基础上,结合中国的实际国情,提出相应的立法建议。对中国证据制度改革问题进行认真探索研究对完善证据立法和指导司法实践有着深刻的现实意义。     

论西方拒证权制度体现的普世伦理意义

西方拒证权制度的设立有其合理因素和价值意义,从普世伦理的角度,即保障社会存在与发展、增进每个人的利益、实现每个人幸福的角度来看,拒证权设立的普世伦理意义是:当法律原则和道德原则发生冲突时,法律的真实性原则应当向普世伦理标准作出让步、妥协和回归。     

"攻击防御方法"之平衡--简论民事证据调查令制度

在民事诉讼中,程序正义原则要求法院保障当事人诉讼地位平等,不仅应消极对待双方当事人,而且要积极辅助在"攻击防御方法"掌控上出于弱势的一方当事人.我国民事诉讼法对当事人和律师收集证据的手段和程序之规定既不利于当事人"攻击防御方法"的平衡,又有违法院中立地位的要求.我国应当在借鉴西方发达国家民事诉讼法中当事人取证制度的基础上建立并完善民事证据调查令制度.     

云计算条件下我国网络侦查的困惑及出路

随着网络技术的迅猛发展,云计算得到了广泛应用。而在云计算条件下,出于打击犯罪需要,网络侦查也被大量应用到司法实践中。但因云计算条件下的网络侦查自身地位尚未获得我国法律明文认可,侦查范围、方式欠缺法律法规明确指引,技术相对滞后,具体程序和监督救济机制缺乏,在当前还存在诸多困惑。文章认为要解决这些困惑出路主要包括不断完善相关法律法规,及时更新侦查取证技术并不断发展完善反侦查取证技术,设置监督救济机制及与“云服务”相应单位保持密切合作四个方面。     

论刑事二审程序中新证据的采信

刑事二审中新证据的采信对于查明案件事实有重大意义,但刑事诉讼法只是原则性的规定了新证据,对其构成要件及采信标准则需要参照相关司法解释及部门法进一步明确。理论上讲,我国对新证据采取的是随时提出主义,反映了对刑事实质正义的绝对追求。具体到新证据的认定标准上,需要考察时间、原因和种类三个要件。在此基础上,结合证据的可采性原理,可以分别对检察院、辩护人及法院提出的新证据进行科学的采信。     

论我国刑事证据属性理论的重构--刑事证据“四性说”的提出与意义

传统三性说在刑事诉讼中理解和适用均存在困难,尤其是无法准确解释中国法语境中的瑕疵证据、情况说明等证据问题,这是需对传统三性说进行理论完善的主要原因。通过证据认定案件事实的过程,可以划分为证据过程与证明过程。表达证据过程的参数是证据能力和证据力,表达证明过程的参数是证明能力和证明力。按照四属性说,瑕疵证据在法律性质上属于证据力待定,不是证据能力待定或者可补正排除的非法证据;在案件实体法事实证明问题上,应当总体否定情况说明的证明效力,建立明确的证明能力禁止规则。四属性说比三性说更具有知识性和实用性,比两性说更加准确和适用,是一具有理论拓展价值和历史承继性质的证据属性理论。