生鲜产品供应链最优化决策综述与拓展建议

生鲜产品具有强时效、低残值、高随机的特点。为综合了解生鲜产品企业的优化决策及其供应链的契约协调,采用文献归纳法,综述生鲜产品的易逝性刻画方法、生鲜企业的优化决策模型、以及渠道契约协调机制,并分析进一步可以拓展的研究方向。拓展建议有三点,一是将市场或消费者因素纳入变质率函数;二是寻找全链保鲜投入和终端货架服务与成本效益的均衡点:三是设计兼具收益共享和成本分担功能的契约机制。     

Measuring credibility of compensatory preference statements when trade-offs are interval determined

This paper studies how an overall fuzzy preference relation can be constructed in the compensatory context of the simple additive difference model, when imprecision on the trade-offs has to be taken into account. Three credibility indices of preferences are analysed and illustrated by a numerical example. Arguments are presented supporting the use of the third index, for which an interesting transitivity property (which was an open problem) is proved.     

NFCAPP系统中工序图的生成

主要探讨了NFCAPP系统中工序图生成的原理、方法、工序图数据的存贮结构及工序图的输出.     

Three pseudo-paradoxes in ‘quantum’ decision theory: Apparent effects of observation on probability and utility

In quantum domains, the measurement (or observation) of one of a pair of complementary variables introduces an unavoidable uncertainty in the value of that variable's complement. Such uncertainties are negligible in Newtonian worlds, where observations can be made without appreciably disturbing the observed system. Hence, one would not expect that an observation of a non-quantum probabilistic outcome could affect a probability distribution over subsequently possible states, in a way that would conflict with classical probability calculations. This paper examines three problems in which observations appear to affect the probabilities and expected utilities of subsequent outcomes, in ways which may appear paradoxical. Deeper analysis of these problems reveals that the anomalies arise, not from paradox, but rather from faulty inferences drawn from the observations themselves. Thus the notion of quantum decision theory is disparaged.     

Managing Uncertainty through Profit Sharing Contracts from Medieval Italy to Silicon Valley

Organizational innovation is essential to economic development. But, the way successful societies have organized new ventures has been remarkably similar in both past and present. The commenda organizations of medieval Italy shared many characteristics with modern startups that are financed by venture capital. Profit share contracts; limited liability and periodic reevaluations are cases in point. Agency contracts in both types of ventures are designed to absorb the high uncertainty inherent to these enterprises through risk sharing. Uncertainty prohibits a unique ex ante ranking order of investment projects and prompts investors to look for hidden human capital. Equity finance is better equipped to even out unexpected losses and gains that are inherent to uncertainty than debt finance.     

增长性市场条件下垄断定价的实物期权方法

许多研究垄断厂商定价的文献忽视了垄断厂商拥有的调整价格的权利. 事实上,这种调 价的权利等价于厂商拥有的一个实物期权. 基于此,应用实物期权的方法确定了增长性市场条 件下调价权利(调价期权) 的价值,进而研究了垄断厂商的定价行为,给出了企业价值最大化的 条件. 结果表明,在增长性市场中,需求状况的好坏决定了垄断厂商的定价决策是否考虑调价 期权. 并且,当垄断厂商定价考虑其拥有的调价期权的价值时,除一些特殊情形外,边际收益等 于边际成本,不再适用垄断厂商的定价决策     

Optimization Model and Algorithm for Crew Management During Airline Irregular Operations

Airline irregular operations have long been a realm where human experience and judgement are the most important tools to utilize. Crew management during irregular operations is usually the bottleneck of the whole system-recovering process due to complicated crew schedules and restrictive crew legalities as well as the size and scope of the hub-and-spoke networks adopted by major carriers. A system-wide multi-commodity integer network flow model and a heuristic search algorithm for the above purpose are presented and discussed in this paper. The computational experiences show that the algorithm is efficient enough to solve problems of realistic size and also has the flexibility to accommodate practical business requirements.     

On the effectiveness of cognitive feedback from an interface agent

The objective of this study was to determine the impact of task information (TI) provided by an interface agent during the idea evaluation and integration step of the problem formulation stage of the problem solving process. The effectiveness assessment was based on solving diagnostic decision problems in the domain of complex industrial machinery. Ten domain experts participated in this study. Decision support was provided by a case-based reasoning system. Findings suggest that TI provided by the interface agent had no effect on the decision maker's performance, nor on the associated cognitive effort. However, a verbal protocol analysis revealed that the ten subjects used the interface agent to verify their decision processes. The results and their implications are discussed with respect to current findings in the area of decision support systems.     

异质产品供应链定价控制权与零售商横向兼并效应分析

针对一部线性合约与供应商是否具有绝对定价控制权,比较分析零售商横向兼并集中度提高对消费者福利的影响.结果表明,(1)当供应商具有绝对定价控制权时,零售商横向兼并对消费者产生的影响取决于产品替代性程度大小:若替代性程度较高,则将产生有利影响,反之,将产生不利影响;(2)当供应商没有绝对定价控制权时,零售商横向兼并对消费者产生的影响取决于零售商兼并前的相对定价控制权强弱与兼并后的相对定价控制权增幅大小:若零售商在供应链中处于相对弱势地位,且零售商横向兼并使零售商的定价控制权增幅较大,则兼并将对消费者产生有利影响,否则,将对消费者产生不利影响.