二维博弈：政府机构改革的困境与对策

改革开放以来的历次政府机构改革一再陷入困境,采用完全信息博弈分析方法,对这一问题从纵、横两个维度分别进行建模、分析与破解。针对地方政府与中央政府在“改”与“不改”策略上的纵向博弈、地方政府与地方政府之间在“先改”与“后改”策略上的横向博弈,分别提出改变各自博弈均衡的条件和改进策略收益的具体措施,从博弈论视角得出减少改革阻力、增加改革动力、形成新的博弈均衡、走出机构改革困境的结论。     

官员财产申报制度：中国反腐的选择与策略

中国治理腐败中越反越腐的困境启示我们,有效治理腐败的关键是及早发现腐败。被世界各国誉为反腐利器的官员财产申报制度在预防和惩治腐败中发挥着他律和自律的双重功能,特别是能监测官员的财产变动情况,及时发现腐败。因此,走向制度反腐的中国应全面借鉴实施官员财产申报制度。然而这一制度在中国的实施却充满艰辛和阻力,其中最大的阻力来自领导层,同时也存在着引发社会不稳定的风险。因此,财产申报制度的实施既需要领导层的＂奥德赛精神＂,自己捆绑自己的手脚,也需要谨慎的策略选择。     

重建生态平衡:自然生态—社会生态—精神生态

工业现代化的推进加剧了人与自然之间的冲突和对抗,蔓延全球的生态困境对人类的生存和发展构成了潜在的威胁,它迫使人类以强烈的忧患意识对自己的历史和未来进行认真反思。社会生态论者认为生态难题实质上是社会问题,资本主义私有制的应用引发人地关系的对抗,只有通过变革资本主义私有制,＂以人为本＂,转变主客二分的思维方式和技术理性统治形式,才能够重建社会生态平衡,进而重建人与自然的生态平衡;精神生态论者认为精神价值的消解引发自然生态失衡,只有通过精神自由的回归重建精神生态平衡,才能够推进个体生命秩序与自然生态秩序的辩证契合。自然生态—社会生态—精神生态是辩证有机的＂生态大系统＂,同时也是和谐社会建设的可贵思想资源。     

“人肉搜索”的伦理困境与超越

＂人肉搜索＂因其强大的渗透功能及影响力引起了社会的广泛关注与学术界的热议。从伦理学的视角,对中国互联网上出现的＂人肉搜索＂现象的利弊进行了较为深入的分析。肯定＂人肉搜索＂的亚合理性,认为＂人肉搜索＂体现了我国社会的进步、民众伦理意识的觉醒和对自由平等意识的追崇,体现了道德他律的新形式。同时,对＂人肉搜索＂的局限性与弊端进行了揭示,认为＂人肉搜索＂在实施过程中会造成对个人隐私的侵犯、容易突破道德底线、导致动机与效果相悖等问题。在此基础上提出了规范＂人肉搜索＂的基本原则：客观原则、无伤原则、适度原则、对等原则,并认为解决＂人肉搜索＂这一暴力难题应始于道德,依据于法律,终于伦理。     

The Collapsing Choice Theory: Dissociating Choice and Judgment in Decision Making

Decision making theory in general, and mental models in particular, associate judgment and choice. Decision choice follows probability estimates and errors in choice derive mainly from errors in judgment. In the studies reported here we use the Monty Hall dilemma to illustrate that judgment and choice do not always go together, and that such a dissociation can lead to better decision-making. Specifically, we demonstrate that in certain decision problems, exceeding working memory limitations can actually improve decision choice. We show across four experiments that increasing the number of choice alternatives forces people to collapse choices together, resulting in better decision-making. While choice performance improves, probability judgments do not change, thus demonstrating an important dissociation between choice and probability judgments. We propose the Collapsing Choice Theory (CCT) which explains how working memory capacity, probability estimation, choice alternatives, judgment, and regret all interact and effect decision quality.      

合作管理研究框架

介绍了合作管理研究的背景和当前主要的企业合作理论,认为合作是管理学研究的主题,当前管理学对合作的研究缺乏系统的梳理,同时,管理理论的研究缺乏严格的前提假设,最后在界定合作以及提出"现实人假设"和"资源无限性假设"的基础上,给出了合作管理理论的研究框架。     

何处是归程?--从徐坤小说《厨房》看当代中国女性解放的困境与出路

本文从对当代女作家徐坤的小说<厨房>的解读中,分析当代中国女性解放面临的家庭困境和社会困境,探讨了解决女性家庭角色与社会角色矛盾冲突的出路,认为女性解放最理想和最终的出路是男女两性共同建构平等和谐的两性世界.     

Bayesian boundedly rational agents play the Finitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma

In this paper a model of boundedly rational decision making in the Finitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma is proposed in which: (1) each player is Bayesianrational; (2) this is common knowledge; (3) players are constrained by limited state spaces (their Bayesian minds) in processing (1) and (2). Under these circumstances, we show that cooperative behavior may arise as an individually optimal response, except for the latter part of the game. Indeed, such behaviorwill necessarily obtain in long enough games if belief systems satisfy a natural condition: essentially, that all events consistent with the players' analysis of the game be attributed by them positive (although arbitrarily small) subjective probability.     

Greed and fear: Competitive and charitable priming in a threshold volunteer's dilemma

In the “k-volunteer's dilemma” benefit accrues to all members if at least k members volunteer, and receive nothing otherwise. We use experiments to examine (a) volunteering behavior when threshold k increases from 1 to 2, and (b) whether volunteering behavior shifts toward norms associated with one of two primed identities—charitable or competitive. We find that increasing the threshold increases an individual's probability of volunteering, but the likelihood of good provision is lower. Neither priming affects volunteering behavior when k = 1, but competitive priming effectively increases volunteering when k = 2. Both greed and fear of non-provision appear to affect volunteering.     

联盟信任变迁与美韩联盟转型

联盟信任与联盟困境之间存在密切关系。在双边不对称联盟中,联盟困境的抛弃与牵连对联盟信任的作用更为强烈,进而成为推动联盟转型的重要变量。在美韩联盟发展过程中,其联盟信任不断变迁。联盟初期,由战火锤炼铸就的美韩双向情绪性信任,中经尼克松冲击转变为情绪性—工具性信任,后冷战时代历经双方的战略调整与实力变迁影响,转为双向工具性信任。受联盟信任变迁的影响,美韩联盟也实现了由军事联盟向战略性联盟的转变,这是联盟信任下降与共有利益拓展的共同结果。