胡适与"九一八"事变

“九一八”事变之前胡适对东北形势就很关注,并对危机的出现有预感。事变后,他积极投身于拯救民族危机的活动中。他与友人创办《独立评论》,并在主编位置上为之付出巨大的心血。他从国际、国内等方面着眼,对事变的原因、影响所做的阐释,许多是有见地、有的甚至是很精辟的。胡适在“九一八”事变后的爱国行动也对他的人生道路产生了深刻的影响。     

The impact of financial sanctions: The case of Iran

This study provides a detailed analysis of the impact of financial sanctions on publicly traded companies. We consider the effect of imposing and lifting sanctions on the target country’s traded equities and examine the differences in the reaction of politically connected firms and those without such connections. The paper focuses on Iran due to (1) its sizable financial markets, (2) imposition of sanctions of varying severity and duration on private and state-owned companies, (3) the significant presence of politically connected firms in the stock market, and (4) the unique event of the 2015 nuclear deal, resulting in fairly rapid lifting of a sizable portion of imposed sanctions. We find that sanctions affect politically connected firms more than ordinary firms, have lasting negative effects on profitability ratios, and that politically connected firms stock prices bounce back more slowly after removal of sanctions. Firms targeted by financial sanctions decrease their leverage and increase their cash holding to manage their perceived increase in risk profile.     

股利政策代理理论的实证检验

本文从股利政策的代理理论出发分析中国上市公司的股利政策。我们利用传统的增长机会与自由现金流来识别过度投资公司,通过考察2000—2002年股利增加大于10%的315家公司,我们发现,对于股利增加的宣告事件,过度投资公司的市场欢迎程度要显著地大于非过度投资的公司,这说明代理成本理论在中国是适用的。我们进一步检验了国内特殊存在的非流通股以及国有股对于管理层与流通股东之间代理冲突的影响,通过同样的事件研究方法对上述样本进行市场宣告反应检验,结果发现:非流通股比例不同的公司其市场反应并无显著差异,说明非流通股的存在对管理层与流通股东之间的代理冲突没有显著影响;而国有股比例不同的公司其市场宣告反应存在显著差异,说明国有股产生的“所有者缺位”问题加大了管理层过度投资的可能性,并确实影响了现金股利的发放。     

The key role of the event in combining business and community-based logics for managing an ecosystem: Empirical evidence from Lyon e-Sport

The spatiotemporal management of ecosystems remains a topical issue in the strategic management literature. This research proposes an original approach by examining the key role played by events in ecosystem management. Drawing on the single case of a major French e-sport event (Lyon e-Sport), we study how an event allows the combination of both business and community logics to provide a simultaneous but discontinuous ecosystem management. Our findings contribute to recent research and show that (1) the event provides a space for structuring and combining business and community-based logics, (2) the community logic has to be hierarchically managed to allow the business logic to emerge and develop the ecosystem, and (3) various spatial and digital mechanisms related to the event support the combination of both business and community-related logics.     

聚焦活动与企业价值之关系——从公司治理机制探讨

本研究系探讨企业聚焦活动宣告对股票报酬之影响,采用1993年至2002年间33家台湾上市上柜公司宣告聚焦活动为研究对象,并以事件研究法市场模型为分析工具,同时以复回归方法从公司治理角度去探讨影响累积异常报酬之因素。研究结果发现,企业聚焦之宣告可获得显著且正向累积异常报酬;而董事会规模、上一年多角化程度以及研究发展费用等因素与累积异常报酬呈正相关。然而,大股东持股比率与累积异常报酬呈负相关。     

The Financial Impact of FSC Certification in the United States: A Contingency Perspective

This article focuses on an important and emergent standard for sustainable operations management: the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certification. Unlike similar certifications, its focus is on the entire upstream supply chain, reflecting the criticality of supply chain management to ensure sustainable products. We investigate the financial impact from FSC certification, offering valuable decision support for managers considering this certification. Taking a contingency perspective, we view a firm's supply chain position and its prior certification to the ISO 14001 standard as influencing the results. Drawing on signaling theory, we suggest that firms farther downstream in the supply chain realize significantly greater abnormal financial performance benefits than firms upstream in the supply chain. We further hypothesize that firms that were not ISO 14001 certified at the time of FSC certification realize significantly greater abnormal financial performance benefits than firms that did have the ISO 14001 certification. To test these hypotheses, we utilize financial data of all publicly traded firms in the United States that have obtained the FSC certification, and assess whether FSC certification leads to abnormal performance benefits considering the above contingencies. Data collected from the FSC Certificate Database and Compustat, employed in an event study, provide support for our hypotheses. Overall, our findings contribute to research on decision making in the context of sustainable operations management, and offer a plausible explanation for contradictory results in prior studies. We highlight the applicability of signaling theory to decision sciences research, and stress the need to consider contingencies in sustainability management research.     

Spatio-temporal filtering techniques for the detection of disaster-related communication

Individuals predominantly exchange information with one another through informal, interpersonal channels. During disasters and other disrupted settings, information spread through informal channels regularly outpaces official information provided by public officials and the press. Social scientists have long examined this kind of informal communication in the rumoring literature, but studying rumoring in disrupted settings has posed numerous methodological challenges. Measuring features of informal communication–timing, content, location–with any degree of precision has historically been extremely challenging in small studies and infeasible at large scales. We address this challenge by using online, informal communication from a popular microblogging website and for which we have precise spatial and temporal metadata. While the online environment provides a new means for observing rumoring, the abundance of data poses challenges for parsing hazard-related rumoring from countless other topics in numerous streams of communication. Rumoring about disaster events is typically temporally and spatially constrained to places where that event is salient. Accordingly, we use spatio and temporal subsampling to increase the resolution of our detection techniques. By filtering out data from known sources of error (per rumor theories), we greatly enhance the signal of disaster-related rumoring activity. We use these spatio-temporal filtering techniques to detect rumoring during a variety of disaster events, from high-casualty events in major population centers to minimally destructive events in remote areas. We consistently find three phases of response: anticipatory excitation where warnings and alerts are issued ahead of an event, primary excitation in and around the impacted area, and secondary excitation which frequently brings a convergence of attention from distant locales onto locations impacted by the event. Our results demonstrate the promise of spatio-temporal filtering techniques for “tuning” measurement of hazard-related rumoring to enable observation of rumoring at scales that have long been infeasible.     

Event-tree analysis with imprecise probabilities

Novel methods are proposed for dealing with event-tree analysis under imprecise probabilities, where one could measure chance or uncertainty without sharp numerical probabilities and express available evidence as upper and lower previsions (or expectations) of gambles (or bounded real functions). Sets of upper and lower previsions generate a convex set of probability distributions (or measures). Any probability distribution in this convex set should be considered in the event-tree analysis. This article focuses on the calculation of upper and lower bounds of the prevision (or the probability) of some outcome at the bottom of the event-tree. Three cases of given information/judgments on probabilities of outcomes are considered: (1) probabilities conditional to the occurrence of the event at the upper level; (2) total probabilities of occurrences, that is, not conditional to other events; (3) the combination of the previous two cases. Corresponding algorithms with imprecise probabilities under the three cases are explained and illustrated by simple examples.     

中国增强现代化城市的应急管理能力探析——美国世贸中心“9.11”事件一周年思考

在“9.11”事件噩梦周年之际人们不仅仅在于要为这座 2 0世纪的世界建筑经典致哀 ,更重要的是它启示我们要呼唤起一种建筑设计的精神即城市超高层建筑防意外事件的能力。为此提出了建立城市应急管理体系大战略的基本思考     

胜任特征研究的新进展

基于胜任特征的人力资源管理与开发是近30年来管理学、工业与组织心理学、人力资源管理、教育学等学科领域研究的热点问题之一.该文对胜任特征研究的历史进行了简单回顾,介绍了胜任特征研究的主要途径和方法,分析了各种胜任特征概念的优点和不足,同时还对有关胜任特征模型的研究及其研究方法进行了总结.