左思风力之成因初探

西晋诗人左思的诗风在西晋文坛上独树一帜，称之为“左思风力”，前人对此有较多地论述，然而就诗风形成的原因却缺乏深入地探究。本文试图从社会时代背景、家庭因素、性格特征三个方面对此加以分析，旨在能够更好地把握左思其人及其诗风。     

Cu-Ce(La)OX变换催化剂的制备和性能考察

本文对采用共沉淀法制备的Cu-Ce(La)Ox高温变换催化剂进行了研究．首先研究了中和pH值、中和温度、焙烧温度和方式对催化剂性能的影响，其次研究了CuO、CeO2和LaOx含量对催化剂性能的影响．5％CuO-CeO2-La(10％)Ox高温变换催化剂的最佳制备工艺条件为pH=11，中和温度为54℃，400C焙烧4h．催化剂的最佳配比组成为：CuO为20％、CeO2 70％、LaOx 10％．XRD晶相分析表明，5％Cu-Ce-La(10％)Ox催化剂中除了主相CeO2以外，还出现了Cu与La形成的钙钛矿型复合氧化物CuLaO2，且CuLaO2高度均匀地分散在主相CeOx中．还原态中除了CeO2、CuLaO2外，还出现了Cu单质，因此这类催化剂的活性中心不可能是简单的CuLaO2或Cu，从而使催化剂无论氧化态还是还原态都具有基本相同的活性，其活性位形态结构需要进一步研究．     

Dementia Problem Behavior and the Production of Informal Caregiving Services

Informal caregivers of individuals with Alzheimer's disease spend a considerable amount of time providing care. In this paper, we use Grossman's health production and Becker's time allocation models to develop a model of informal care provision to elderly dementia patients. In our model, time inputs produce caregiving services, which provides utility to the caregiver, but reduces leisure. We assume that time is less productive of services on the margin as the disease progresses. In this framework, an increase in patients' disease severity does not necessarily increase informal caregiver time input. The cost of formal care establishes a reservation price for informal caregiving. When the costs of informal caregiving rise above this reservation level, the patient is institutionalized. We test empirically the effect of deterioration in the patients' condition, proxied by both disease severity and dementia problem behavior, on informal caregiving time. We find that dementia-related problem behaviors and functional limitations significantly increase inputs of informal caregiving time. Patients' problem behavior exerts a modifying effect on functional limitations, and patients' comorbidities have no effect on informal caregiving time.     

Estimation of noncentrality parameters

We propose some estimators of noncentrality parameters which improve upon usual unbiased estimators under quadratic loss. The distributions we consider are the noncentral chi-square and the noncentral F. However, we give more general results for the family of elliptically contoured distributions and propose a robust dominating estimator.     

解读“超级女声”——大众文化的社会学分析

“超女”与曾经流行的“超级模仿秀”及时下的“非常6 1”、“梦想中国”等娱乐节目,是商业精英与文化精英联手打造的“文化产品”与“时尚”。文化精英只是这种现象和理念的移植者,其产生取决于精英、大众与传媒三者相互制约、影响、建构的共同作用。     

试论美术文化中的技术理性

无论从劳动产品的角度看,还是从社会的角度看,技术都是理性的表现;产品的生产过程,是一种技术展现的过程,即生产者的个性标记通过技术展现的过程,因此,技术本身也具有理性。理性的技术促进了人类社会的发展。     

Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape

Summary.  A general class of statistical models for a univariate response variable is presented which we call the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). The model assumes independent observations of the response variable y given the parameters, the explanatory variables and the values of the random effects. The distribution for the response variable in the GAMLSS can be selected from a very general family of distributions including highly skew or kurtotic continuous and discrete distributions. The systematic part of the model is expanded to allow modelling not only of the mean (or location) but also of the other parameters of the distribution of y , as parametric and/or additive nonparametric (smooth) functions of explanatory variables and/or random-effects terms. Maximum (penalized) likelihood estimation is used to fit the (non)parametric models. A Newton–Raphson or Fisher scoring algorithm is used to maximize the (penalized) likelihood. The additive terms in the model are fitted by using a backfitting algorithm. Censored data are easily incorporated into the framework. Five data sets from different fields of application are analysed to emphasize the generality of the GAMLSS class of models.     

Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

Real nonparametric regression using complex wavelets

Summary.  Wavelet shrinkage is an effective nonparametric regression technique, especially when the underlying curve has irregular features such as spikes or discontinuities. The basic idea is simple: take the discrete wavelet transform of data consisting of a signal corrupted by noise; shrink or remove the wavelet coefficients to remove the noise; then invert the discrete wavelet transform to form an estimate of the true underlying curve. Various researchers have proposed increasingly sophisticated methods of doing this by using real-valued wavelets. Complex-valued wavelets exist but are rarely used. We propose two new complex-valued wavelet shrinkage techniques: one based on multiwavelet style shrinkage and the other using Bayesian methods. Extensive simulations show that our methods almost always give significantly more accurate estimates than methods based on real-valued wavelets. Further, our multiwavelet style shrinkage method is both simpler and dramatically faster than its competitors. To understand the excellent performance of this method we present a new risk bound on its hard thresholded coefficients.     

确保农民稳定增收要有新视野

当前,提高农民收入必须从深化农村产业结构和各项制度改革、克服制约农民增收的内外部因素及采取各项配套措施等方面着手,使农民稳定增收落到实处。