经济预测中的Monte Carlo模拟及方差控制——以国际石油价格预测为例

从MDnte Carlo模拟的实现过程入手，首先通过对Monte Carlo方法原理的阐述来介绍该种方法。进一步结合具体的实例通过计算机进行模拟来解释Monte Carlo方法的具体实现过程。重点讨论在选择合理的数据生成过程的前提下，如何在Monte Carlo方法中减少模拟方差，从而提高估计精度，更好地应用这种方法来进行经济预测。     

A spatiotemporal auto-regressive moving average model for solar radiation

Summary.  To investigate the variability in energy output from a network of photovoltaic cells, solar radiation was recorded at 10 sites every 10 min in the Pentland Hills to the south of Edinburgh. We identify spatiotemporal auto-regressive moving average models as the most appropriate to address this problem. Although previously considered computationally prohibitive to work with, we show that by approximating using toroidal space and fitting by matching auto-correlations, calculations can be substantially reduced. We find that a first-order spatiotemporal auto-regressive (STAR(1)) process with a first-order neighbourhood structure and a Matern noise process provide an adequate fit to the data, and we demonstrate its use in simulating realizations of energy output.     

新城市社会学视域下我国当代城市空间生产的特征

以新城市社会学理论的新马克思主义政治经济学来分析我国当代城市空间生产的特征,是一个新的视域。转型时期我国当代城市的空间生产呈现出新的特征,表现为资本、技术——工业理性刺激着城市的快速扩张,出现环境污染、建设破坏、文化破坏等社会问题,城市空间的生产是不同社会群体对空间的角逐过程和结果,反映着政府、公共领域与个人的边界。城市空间的生产能动地、全面地反映着资本、权力、财富、社会地位、利益等社会关系的生产。     

Bayesian inference for a discretely observed stochastic kinetic model

The ability to infer parameters of gene regulatory networks is emerging as a key problem in systems biology. The biochemical data are intrinsically stochastic and tend to be observed by means of discrete-time sampling systems, which are often limited in their completeness. In this paper we explore how to make Bayesian inference for the kinetic rate constants of regulatory networks, using the stochastic kinetic Lotka-Volterra system as a model. This simple model describes behaviour typical of many biochemical networks which exhibit auto-regulatory behaviour. Various MCMC algorithms are described and their performance evaluated in several data-poor scenarios. An algorithm based on an approximating process is shown to be particularly efficient.     

Optimal scaling of Metropolis algorithms: Heading toward general target distributions

The authors provide an overview of optimal scaling results for the Metropolis algorithm with Gaussian proposal distribution. They address in more depth the case of high‐dimensional target distributions formed of independent, but not identically distributed components. They attempt to give an intuitive explanation as to why the well‐known optimal acceptance rate of 0.234 is not always suitable. They show how to find the asymptotically optimal acceptance rate when needed, and they explain why it is sometimes necessary to turn to inhomogeneous proposal distributions. Their results are illustrated with a simple example.     

论产业化时代的精神文化生产

文章结合十六大文件的深入学习,透视了当代文化产业遭遇的各种现实尴尬,并对一系列相关的理论与实践问题展开了学理性追问,包括当代西方马克思主义美学和19世纪的传统马克思主义美学的相关论述,着重分析了当代文化生产的四个重要特征:即不间断的意识形态再生产的商品化特征,以符号作手段以传媒为载体进行市场流通的特征,个性化与标准化及原创性与复制性的综合过程特征,在多次体验消费中获得价值增值的特征。     

铁磁性金属簿膜磁特性的研究

讨论了铁磁性金属薄膜中的各向弄性磁阻效应。通过对晶体结构分析和实验验证,提出了一种假设:在外磁场作用下,产生了原子对的方向有序化,导致感生磁各向异性,并使晶体织构消失。根据对5种样品的实测数据,讨论了薄膜的动态磁化过程。     

公路建设项目施工期全程环境管理

通过分析公路施工期公路施工对自然生态、大气、声、水环境以及社会环境的影响,针对公路施工期环境管理的薄弱状态及施工期环境监理尚处于试点研究阶段的现状,提出了公路建设项目施工期全程环境管理的理念,建立施工期全程环境管理制度的思想:承包商、监理、业主及政府环保部门共同承担环保责任的“四位一体”的施工期环境管理模式,并对其内涵进行了分析。这对建立公路建设项目施工期全程环境管理制度、规范施工期的环境管理有着积极的推动作用。     

Modelling map positional error to infer true feature location

The authors consider the issue of map positional error, or the difference between location as represented in a spatial database (i.e., a map) and the corresponding unobservable true location. They propose a fully model‐based approach that incorporates aspects of the map registration process commonly performed by users of geographic informations systems, including rubber‐sheeting. They explain how estimates of positional error can be obtained, hence estimates of true location. They show that with multiple maps of varying accuracy along with ground truthing data, suitable model averaging offers a strategy for using all of the maps to learn about true location.     

正义的变迁——兼构我国符合正义的法律体系

法律似乎与生俱来地与正义联系在一起,以此为切入点,分析正义是永恒的,而正义的内容常变.然后考察不同生产方式下的不同的正义变化,并主要分析社会化大生产条件下的应然正义.最后以此构建中国在当前历史时期符合正义的法律体系.