Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

试析《隆中对》兼论关羽之失

诸葛亮未出茅庐便知三分天下,在刘备三顾茅庐时,便提出<隆中对>,为刘备指出发展方向和治国方略.<隆中对>前后可分两大部分.前半部分劝告刘备不要与已拥有百万之众,挟天子以令诸侯的曹操争锋;要与占据江东已历三世,国险而民附,贤能为之用的孙权结盟,不要为敌.指出刘备的发展方向是占有荆州和益州.后半部分为刘备指出五点治国方略和战略部署:(一)联吴抗曹;(二)跨有荆、益;(三)西和西戎,南抚夷越;(四)内修政理;(五)两路出军,一向宛、洛,一出秦川.这五大治国方略和战略部署,由于关羽大意失荆州而受到严重打击,使"跨有荆、益"和"两路出军"的计划落空,吴蜀联盟中断,但诸葛亮在"联吴抗曹"、"西和诸戎,南抚夷越"等方面仍取得了辉煌的成就,对开发四川、云南、贵州作出了突出的贡献.诸葛亮是三国时期一流的政治家、军事家和战略家.     

Modelling Variability in the Branching Structure of Strawberry Inflorescences

The branching structure of inflorescences of the cultivated strawberry ( Fragaria × ananassa Duch.) is very variable. This paper demonstrates that some aspects of this variability are well described by a simple stochastic model of branching that has two adjustable parameters. The model is shown to provide a good fit to data from a set of almost 700 inflorescences of the cultivar Elsanta, collected over two successive years. For one parameter the maximum likelihood estimator is a moment estimator which is fully efficient even if the detailed branching structure of the inflorescences is not recorded. This parameter provides a convenient summary of branching vigour. The maximum likelihood estimator of the second parameter must be determined iteratively and can be quite inefficient unless the full branching structure is recorded. The model demonstrates that branching structure is affected by the order in which inflorescences emerge on the plant.     

日本东京大学藏本《西游记骨目》琐谈

《西游记》的域外传播接受,因资料较难寓目,目前尚未得到充分挖掘。如日本东京大学东洋文化研究所藏本棘树散人撰《西游记骨目》一卷,不见于目前大陆已出版的所有《西游记》研究资料汇编,亦很少见于各家《西游记》研究著述。对此类资料加以蒐辑、整理和利用,既可拓宽文学史料学的疆域,又可使小说传播与接受的历史链条趋于完整,对当下之《西游记》研究,具有启示意义。     

家用电冰箱节能阀的可行性研究

针对家用电冰箱开、停机过程产生的能量损失，提出了一种节能阀的设想，并采用模拟节能阀系统加以验证，实验结果表明了它的可行性和节能效果。     

论公正性传播对新闻工作者的素质要求

公正性传播是获得世界性意义的新闻报道原则 ,实践这条原则需要新闻工作者具备多方面的素质。平等、自由、独立意识是公正性传播的直接理念依据 ,诚实、正直、无私品质是实现公正性传播的伦理保障。由于公正性传播要服务和服从于新闻的真实性要求 ,因此对平等、自由、独立的追求只能是适度的 ,对诚实、正直、无私的道德规范也应限制在一定的原则范围之内。     

研究生学术道德建设的现状及其改善途径

近年来,研究生中出现的学术道德失范现象着实令人担忧,问题的出现除学生个体和社会大环境的原因外,作为高校的研究生教育工作者,更是要进行深刻的自我反思。本文主要从研究生学术道德失范的具体情况入手,反思学术道德建设中存在的问题和不足,并提出改善学术道德建设的途径。     

工程更改研究进展

在产品的生命周期里,多元化的客户需求、生产制造技术工艺的改进等,不断对企业提出新设计更改的要求。在 现有的产品设计信息基础上对产品进行工程更改,是满足复杂多变的市场的重要方法。在研读国内外文献基础上,根据 工程更改中的研究对象不同,从工程更改的过程管理和更改传播技术2个方面对工程更改理论进行归纳概括。从工程 更改的定义、原因、管理原则、产品的生命周期和计算机支持下环境的更改管理系统、更改机制、更改经验,利用零部件间 参数关系、多层网络模型和设计结构矩阵等更改传播的技术等多方面总结了工程更改的理论研究。最后提出未来工程 更改的研究重点是更改管理系统和传播技术与实际应用的结合,在不断应用过程中完善理论。     

论缔约过失责任的赔偿范围

赔偿范围问题在缔约过失责任理论中一直颇有争议。本文基于缔约过失责任概念的基本界定,认为缔约过失责任损害赔偿的基本范围为信赖利益的损失。相应地,为契合缔约过失责任理论的创立初衷和平衡当事人的利益,信赖利益的赔偿范围应包括了间接利益、非财产上损失以及第三人等损失,但应以履行利益为限。     

Linear statistics in change-point estimation and their asymptotic behaviour

ABSTRACT The limiting behaviour of Bayes procedures in the asymptotic setting of the change-point estimation problem is studied. It is shown that the distribution of the difference between the Bayes estimator and the parameter converges to the distribution of a fairly complicated random variable. A class of linear statistics is introduced, and the form of the Bayes estimator within this class is deduced. The asymptotic properties of this linear estimator are investigated in two different settings for the prior distribution.