Correlation in a Bayesian framework

The authors consider the correlation between two arbitrary functions of the data and a parameter when the parameter is regarded as a random variable with given prior distribution. They show how to compute such a correlation and use closed form expressions to assess the dependence between parameters and various classical or robust estimators thereof, as well as between p‐values and posterior probabilities of the null hypothesis in the one‐sided testing problem. Other applications involve the Dirichlet process and stationary Gaussian processes. Using this approach, the authors also derive a general nonparametric upper bound on Bayes risks.     

基于Petri网的微博网络信息传播模型

微博网络中的信息传播模型是分析用户行为,找出传播路径,确定领袖人物,发现舆情热点等研究的基础。虽然多种不同角度的信息传播模型已经得到广泛研究,但缺乏对信息动态传播过程的直观描述。本文基于Petri网的结构和特征,针对微博网络信息传播过程,提出了一种简单直观的描述模型,该模型首先对微博网络的信息动态传播过程中的对象进行结构化描述。本文根据微博网络的用户结构关系,并利用Petri网的相关理论,形式化解释和定义信息传播基本对象,从而更加直接描述了微博网络中的转发、评论、回复等多种用户行为。在此基础上,本文利用Petri网能够描述信息流动问题的特征,结合颜色Petri网和时延Petri网,从Petri网系统的角度表示信息动态传播路径,并研究网络的动态性质和传播条件,使得信息传播模型更加真实地模拟信息传播情况。最后本文分析信息传播算例和新浪微博真实数据实验,验证了模型的有效性和可行性,为舆情态势分析以及用户行为的研究提供帮助和支持,同时也为其它社交网络信息传播的用户行为描述提供了新的思路。     

手机文化传播机制形成路径及其形式

手机被称为“带着体温的媒体”。从朋友、同事、家人之间的人际传播,到单位、地区、国家的群体传播及全球传播,以手机为主的移动互联网正式进入了主流媒体序列,重构了各种文化、社会、政治体系内外媒介传播的权力关系。手机媒体技术与传播形态主要体现在媒介形态创新和使用形式创新两个方面,手机文化传播方式的不断创新与普及,很大程度上改变了人类的思维方式、社交方式和消费方式,带来了文化传播的丰富和繁荣。充分的用户基础、快速的技术创新、网络的安全治理、全媒体的深度融合将使手机发展成为最具竞争力、最有传播效果的主流文化媒体。     

突发公共事件应急管理宣教育对策研究

应急管理宣传教育水平的高低直接影响着应急指挥管理水平,因此应急管理宣传教育日益受到重视。目前在突发公共事件应急宣传教育中存在诸多问题,针对问题提出今后改进应急管理宣传教育工作的一些建议以及在应急管理宣传教育实施过程中应该遵循的原则。     

P2P技术与网络传播的未来

伴随着P2P技术和商业应用的发展,P2P技术对于未来网络传播可能产生的影响也成为一个令 人关注的问题。从目前来看,P2P技术对于网络传播的影响主要包括以下几方面:网络信息共享与 利用的方式与程度将进一步改变;围绕P2P技术思想展开的软件与信息产品开发,将在一定程度上 决定作为媒体的网络的未来面貌;P2P带来的去中心化特点将使互联网管理的难度进一步增加; P2P可能成为媒体间的交流与合作的新平台,也可能加速媒体形态的演化。从总体看,P2P技术未 来的社会影响程度,取决于政治、经济等各种力量的博弈结果,而这也将最终影响着互联网的未来。     

学术期刊形态传播媒介与学术论文价值关系辨析

学术期刊作为传播学术信息和学术成果的载体,它与学术论文的价值大小之间具有对应性和不对应性的传播关系,两者之间也并不能简单地画等号.作为一种传播媒介,学术期刊也并不具备评价已公开发表的论文价值尺度的功能,而单纯以某类刊物作为评价论文价值和奖励依据的方法,也缺乏合理性和科学性,因此,必须尊重学术文化创造和传播的规律,才能打造出学术名作和名著.     

Job loss and family adjustments in work and schooling during the Mexican peso crisis

We use individual data from a panel of families during the depth of the peso crisis in Mexico to investigate whether the transition of the male household head from employment into unemployment affects the labor force participation of his spouse and children. We find that significant added-worker effects are in operation especially for adult females (wives), but no evidence that the labor force participation, the school attendance, and the likelihood of advancing to the next school grade of teenage males are influenced by the event of unemployment of the household head. The head's unemployment is significantly associated with a higher probability that teenage females do not attend school. However, lower attendance does not appear to impede their advancement to the next grade.

Pregnancy after loss during the COVID19 pandemic

BackgroundRapid changes to how maternity health care is delivered has occurred in many countries across the globe in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Maternity care provisions have been challenged attempting to balance the needs and safety of pregnant women and their care providers. Women experiencing a pregnancy after loss (PAL) during these times face particularly difficult circumstances.AimIn this paper we highlight the situation in three high income countries (Australia, Ireland and USA) and point to the need to remember the unique and challenging circumstances of these PAL families. We suggest new practices may be deviating from established evidence-based guidelines and outline the potential ramifications of these changes.FindingsRecommendations for health care providers are suggested to bridge the gap between the necessary safety requirements due to the pandemic, the role of the health care provider, and the needs of families experiencing a pregnancy after loss.DiscussionChanges to practices i.e. limiting the number of antenatal appointments and access to a support person may have detrimental effects on both mother, baby, and their family. However, new guidelines in maternity care practices developed to account for the pandemic have not necessarily considered women experiencing pregnancy after loss.ConclusionBereaved mothers and their families experiencing a pregnancy after loss should continue to be supported during the COVID-19 pandemic to limit unintended consequences.     

Loss and grief: The experience of transition to residential aged care

There is growing recognition of the experience of non-death-related loss and grief. One unexplored area of non-death-related loss and grief is associated with older people’s transition from home to residential aged care (RAC). This paper reports findings from a qualitative study that explored the experiences of people living in RAC, carer-relatives of people living in RAC and RAC staff. Using theories of loss and grief, the paper identifies features of the transition to RAC that are associated with unresolved loss and maladaptation to changed circumstances, and the types of support that would mitigate these. Using a series of focus groups with both residents and carer-relatives, as well as staff, the study found that residents and their families need more support to negotiate the multiple, often necessarily hasty decisions and bureaucratic requirements associated with transitioning to RAC, while simultaneously experiencing loss and grief. The types of support that families would welcome from service providers include facilitating shared decision making, valuing family and community carer expertise and providing practical information and assistance to fulfil administrative obligations.     

Model selection consistency of U-statistics with convex loss and weighted lasso penalty

In the paper we consider minimisation of U-statistics with the weighted Lasso penalty and investigate their asymptotic properties in model selection and estimation. We prove that the use of appropriate weights in the penalty leads to the procedure that behaves like the oracle that knows the true model in advance, i.e. it is model selection consistent and estimates nonzero parameters with the standard rate. For the unweighted Lasso penalty, we obtain sufficient and necessary conditions for model selection consistency of estimators. The obtained results strongly based on the convexity of the loss function that is the main assumption of the paper. Our theorems can be applied to the ranking problem as well as generalised regression models. Thus, using U-statistics we can study more complex models (better describing real problems) than usually investigated linear or generalised linear models.