我国企业集团兼并生组中的政府行为研究

在我国企业集团的发展过程中,我国政府直接参与了企业集团的兼并重组进程,为了应对国际大集团大公司的挑战,在当前经济全球一体化的大背景下,需要进一步认识在企业集团兼并重组中的政府行为的作用和政府行为方式,政府行为干预的局限性,以及政府在企业集团兼并重组过程中该扮演什么样的角色.以便使政府能更有效地推动企业集团的兼并重组.早日实现做强做大的目标,更好地实施"走出去"发展战略.总体来讲,目前政府还不可能从企业集团的兼并重组过程中超脱出来,还需要政府进一步优化企业集团兼并重组的宏观环境,可以说,由政府直接介入企业集团的兼并重组转向利用法制手段强化对企业集团兼并重组行为的监管应是现在和将来的发展方向.     

大学生消费调查分析

根据江苏科技大学402名大学生的消费抽样调查资料,分析了大学生消费的差异及原因,通过建立Logistic回归模型证实了家庭收入差别是引发学生消费差异的根本因素,同时针对目前大学生消费的一些不合理现象,提出了引导大学生消费需加强荣辱观教育和理财知识教育的建议。     

一类Kermack—Mckandrick方程组初值问题

本文研究描述传染病现象的一类Kermack—Mekandrick方程组初值问题光滑解整体存在唯一性及渐近性质。     

Two tests for sequential detection of a change-point in a nonlinear model

In this paper, two tests, based on weighted CUSUM of the least squares residuals, are studied to detect in real time a change-point in a nonlinear model. A first test statistic is proposed by extension of a method already used in the literature but for the linear models. It is tested under the null hypothesis, at each sequential observation, that there is no change in the model against a change presence. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis is given and its convergence in probability to infinity is proved when a change occurs. These results will allow to build an asymptotic critical region. Next, in order to decrease the type I error probability, a bootstrapped critical value is proposed and a modified test is studied in a similar way. A generalization of the Hájek–Rényi inequality is established.     

A stepwise discrete variable selection procedure

A stepwise variable selection procedure for multinomial discrimination is presented and discussed. Based upon the work of Kullback and Hills, stopping rules are proposed and illustrated for a set of data on communication buyer behavior.     

Are the Order Statistics Ordered? A Survey of Recent Results

The distributions of coherent systems with components with exchangeable lifetimes can be represented as mixtures of distributions of order statistics (k-out-of-n systems) from possibly dependent samples by using the concept of the signature of Samaniego (1985 Samaniego , F. ( 1985 ). On closure of the IFR class under formation of coherent systems . IEEE Trans. Reliabil. R-34 : 69 – 72 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). This representation, together with Rychlik's (1993 Rychlik , T. ( 1993 ). Bounds for expectation of L-estimates for dependent samples . Statistics 24 : 1 – 7 .[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]) results, can be used to obtain sharp bounds on the distribution (or the reliability) function and on the expected lifetime of the system. Also, this representation can be used to determine the asymptotic behavior of the hazard rate of the system when the order statistics are ordered in the hazard rate order. Moreover, the lifetime distributions of coherent systems (and in particular, of order statistics) can also be represented as generalized mixtures (that is, mixtures with some negative weights) of distributions of series system lifetimes by using the concept of the minimal signature defined by Navarro et al. (2007a Navarro , J. , Ruiz , J. M. , Sandoval , C. J. ( 2007a ). Properties of coherent systems with dependent components . Commun. Statist. Theory Methods 36 : 175 – 191 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). This representation can also be used to determine the final behavior of the hazard rate of the system through the behavior of the hazard rate of the series systems. In particular, it can be used to show that the order statistics are, under some conditions, asymptotically hazard rate ordered. However, in general, this result is not true, that is, the order statistics need not be hazard rate ordered.     

Continuous outcomes stochastically mismeasured as discrete random variables: a maximum likelihood approach

In an economic model of retirement behavior, a continuous dependent variable was required; the variable could only be estimated discretely with error, however. Parameter estimates using this dependent variable and ordinary least squares regression are inefficient. In th is paper, we develop a maximum likelihood procedure which adjusts for this heteroscedasticity.     

Bayesian Proportional Hazard Analysis of the Timing of High School Dropout Decisions

In this paper, I study the timing of high school dropout decisions using data from High School and Beyond. I propose a Bayesian proportional hazard analysis framework that takes into account the specification of piecewise constant baseline hazard, the time-varying covariate of dropout eligibility, and individual, school, and state level random effects in the dropout hazard. I find that students who have reached their state compulsory school attendance ages are more likely to drop out of high school than those who have not reached compulsory school attendance ages. Regarding the school quality effects, a student is more likely to drop out of high school if the school she attends is associated with a higher pupil–teacher ratio or lower district expenditure per pupil. An interesting finding of the paper that comes along with the empirical results is that failure to account for the time-varying heterogeneity in the hazard, in this application, results in upward biases in the duration dependence estimates. Moreover, these upward biases are comparable in magnitude to the well-known downward biases in the duration dependence estimates when the modeling of the time-invariant heterogeneity in the hazard is absent.     

组织建言氛围的概念、形成机理及未来展望

组织建言氛围是成员对组织中是否存在着一种接纳或鼓励建言的共享信念或文化感知.根据组织建构理论,个体通过释意过程将从外界环境/氛围领会的信息进行判断处理,从而产生相应的心理氛围,并将其作为自己行动的出发点.研究指出,工作特征、团队氛围、组织环境特征和管理者特征均是个体释意的来源,并经过设定、选择和保留的循环加工过程.其中,后两者并非直接作为释意的来源,而是体现于组织管理理念中,进而指导着组织结构和政策的形成,并在组织管理实践中得以体现和运用,从而作用于个体的释意过程.除此之外,建言氛围的产生和释意过程还受到人际交往的影响,并通过某些心理过程(如心理安全感等)而转化为个体具体的建言活动.     

儿童攻击性行为研究

攻击性行为是儿童身上一种经常发生的不良行为,本文从儿童攻击性行为的特点出发,探讨国内外关于攻击性行为发生的理论假设,并对攻击性行为与家庭、学校、同伴群体之间的关系进行了简要论述,在此基础上提出了儿童攻击性行为的矫正方法和措施.