Evaluating the impact of utility company billing plans on residential energy consumption

Many utility companies offer their customers the choice of participation in an average payment plan, which enables them to pay a fixed sum for their utility bill each month (with final settlement at the end of the billing year), instead of the conventional “pay as you go” billing procedure. Because customers on average payment plans are protected from paying large bills during peak energy-use seasons and because the information about monthly energy use and its cost is perhaps less salient to them, it was hypothesized that customers on the average payment plan would use more electricity than customers not on the plan. Using a nonequivalent control group design, the electricity consumption of a selection of customers of two utility companies (Ns = 475 and 74) was examined. The results showed that there was no evidence to support the hypothesis. Since the logic of hypothesis testing does not permit the ready acceptance of the null hypothesis, several procedural, methodological, and statistical points were made to buttress the conclusion that the average payment plans had no effect on electricity consumption.     

The Impact of the Therapist's Curiosity on the Treatment Process of Children and Adolescents

Therapists bring their own initiative, interest, and wonder—their professional curiosity—into treatment sessions. Some children and adolescents pull away in reaction to this curiosity, bristling or withdrawing, if only for a moment. This can happen abruptly, even in response to the first hello, but most often it occurs subtly, over the course of treatment. These children and adolescents may be replaying the ruptures in relationships they experienced when they have expressed their own initiative and curiosity to important others in their lives. Therapists need to utilize opportunities to understand the dynamics, explore where the original ruptures may have occurred, and bring the experience into therapeutic focus. Case vignettes illustrate these dynamics.     

Choice of Parametric Accelerated Life and Proportional Hazards Models for Survival Data: Asymptotic Results

We discuss the impact of misspecifying fully parametric proportional hazards and accelerated life models. For the uncensored case, misspecified accelerated life models give asymptotically unbiased estimates of covariate effect, but the shape and scale parameters depend on the misspecification. The covariate, shape and scale parameters differ in the censored case. Parametric proportional hazards models do not have a sound justification for general use: estimates from misspecified models can be very biased, and misleading results for the shape of the hazard function can arise. Misspecified survival functions are more biased at the extremes than the centre. Asymptotic and first order results are compared. If a model is misspecified, the size of Wald tests will be underestimated. Use of the sandwich estimator of standard error gives tests of the correct size, but misspecification leads to a loss of power. Accelerated life models are more robust to misspecification because of their log-linear form. In preliminary data analysis, practitioners should investigate proportional hazards and accelerated life models; software is readily available for several such models.     

Covariate Order Tests for Covariate Effect

A new approach for constructing tests for association between a random right censored life time variable and a covariate is proposed. The basic idea is to first arrange the observations in increasing order of the covariate and then base the test on a certain point process defined by the observation times. Tests constructed by this approach are robust against outliers in the covariate values or misspecification of the covariate scale since they only use the ordering of the covariate. Of particular interest is a test based on the Anderson-Darling statistic. This test has good power properties both against monotonic and nonmonotonic dependencies between the covariate and the life time variable.     

"庄生晓梦迷蝴蝶"--论庄子"终身不仕"的原因

庄子"终身不仕",是先秦诸子中"独往独来"的"独有之人".他既不教授弟子,也不游说诸侯,只是偶尔做做白日梦而已.究其原因,从表面上看,是对现实政治的不满.他担心,"千世之后,其必有人与人相食者也".就实质而言,是对个人自由的追求.庄子要做逍遥游,"乘云气,御飞龙,而游乎四海之外".为此,必须明白齐物的道理,齐是非,同生死,"道通为一".从独断论到相对论,其间相距甚远;而从相对论到逍遥游,只有一步之遥.但愿以此化解"人相食"的悲剧,而不仅仅是庄子的白日梦.     

试论孔子"为政先礼"的治国方略

孔子生活时代 ,“礼”的政治含义和思想内涵是“礼制”、“礼仪”、“礼治”、“礼俗”。孔子建立“礼”治社会的主张和措施是“礼以教人”、当权者率先“好礼”、“克己复礼”。孔子对“礼制”的创新和改革表现为“损益”西周以来的礼制 ,扩大“礼治”的社会基础 ,向传统的“礼教”提出挑战     

加快科技奥运建设,促进首都实现跨越式发展

科技奥运是中国申奥成功的重要理念 ,也将成为北京举办奥运会的重要保障条件。加快科技奥运建设对于实现奥运承诺 ,促进首都乃至全国经济、科技的发展都具有深远的意义。“以科技助奥运 ,以奥运促科技”是科技奥运建设的重要内容。本文从科技奥运提出的背景、含义、建设目标、主要任务、实施一年多来取得的进展等方面进行了比较全面的描述。     

试论钱钟书"六法"失读说 --兼与"气韵生动"说商榷

关于谢赫论画有“六法”的标点问题 ,存有两种不同的意见。钱钟书“六法”失读说 ,并从多方面进行了梳理和阐释。对当前较为流行的“气韵生动”说 ,在提出质疑的同时进行了较为细致的辨正。指出“气韵”比“气韵生动”更准确、周延、规范 ,更符合谢赫的本意     

我国劳动力市场中的就业政策支持

我国劳动力市场中的就业政策支持是我国当前乃至今后 2 0年全面建设小康社会过程中重要的研究课题。本报告对我国当前劳动力市场中的就业政策支持对象即就业困难群体的范畴界定和构成 ,我国现阶段劳动力的组织 (工会 )及其对就业困难群体的支持 ,我国政府已经实施的多项就业支持政策等进行了系统的研究和评估。并对今后我国各级各类组织 ,在发展市场经济的条件下 ,继续加大就业政策支持 ,特别是有关政府和工会重视对劳动者权益的保护、劳动关系和劳动法问题的关注 ,与未来 2 0年我国全面建设小康社会的战略性目标和任务的实现 ,提供了一些重要的政策建议。     

执政为民的伟大宣言

十六大报告是执政为民的伟大宣言。党的执政地位的合法性要以先进性来保证,先进性要通过执政为民来体现,这就要把发展作为执政兴国的第一要务,实践"三个代表",并把"三个代表"作为检验执政为民的标准。