Child protection decision-making

The effects of interagency collaboration on risk assessment in child protection practice were analysed in respect of the decision-making processes in child death inquiries. Universal features in the assessment of risk as identified in psychological literature were applied; in particular, the concepts of ‘groupthink’, the ‘certainty effect’ and ‘group polarization’. It is suggested that case conference decisions are inherently more risky than those taken by professionals with individual responsibility because of the way in which cases are framed in terms of losses.     

Job loss and family adjustments in work and schooling during the Mexican peso crisis

We use individual data from a panel of families during the depth of the peso crisis in Mexico to investigate whether the transition of the male household head from employment into unemployment affects the labor force participation of his spouse and children. We find that significant added-worker effects are in operation especially for adult females (wives), but no evidence that the labor force participation, the school attendance, and the likelihood of advancing to the next school grade of teenage males are influenced by the event of unemployment of the household head. The head's unemployment is significantly associated with a higher probability that teenage females do not attend school. However, lower attendance does not appear to impede their advancement to the next grade.

Accurate estimation for extra-Poisson variability assuming random effect models

In this study, the components of extra-Poisson variability are estimated assuming random effect models under a Bayesian approach. A standard existing methodology to estimate extra-Poisson variability assumes a negative binomial distribution. The obtained results show that using the proposed random effect model it is possible to get more accurate estimates for the extra-Poisson variability components when compared to the use of a negative binomial distribution where it is possible to estimate only one component of extra-Poisson variability. Some illustrative examples are introduced considering real data sets.     

数字化发展、制度环境与政府舆情治理质量

基于2016—2020年我国31个省级行政区的面板数据,考察数字化发展、制度环境与政府舆情治理质量之间的关系。研究发现,数字化发展对政府舆情治理质量具有改善效应;相比制度环境较差的省份,数字化发展对舆情治理质量的改善效应在制度环境较好的省份更为显著。异质性检验表明,数字化发展对政府舆情治理质量的改善效应在数字化水平高的省份、制度环境较好但数字化水平低的省份显著,在制度环境较好的省份、制度环境较差的东部省份显著。研究结论为借助数字化发展改善政府舆情治理质量提供了理论依据。     

Double robust estimator in general treatment regimes based on Covariate-balancing

Double robust estimators have double the chance of being a consistent estimator of a causal effect in binary treatments cases. In this paper, we proposed an estimator of a causal effect for general treatment regimes based on covariate-balancing. Under parametrical situation, our estimator has double robustness.     

The effect of media sexism on women’s political ambition: evidence from a worldwide study

This paper presents results from one of the first global studies on the relationship between media sexism and the share of candidates for the lower chamber of national parliaments who are women. Data on media sexism come from the Global Media Monitoring Project, the most reliable worldwide source for media coverage from a gender perspective. The data on share of female political candidates come from the Inter-Parliamentary Union. The results show that that there is, even when controlling for the number of women in parliament, electoral system, gender quotas, level of human development, level of women’s rights, freedom from corruption, and media access, a significant relationship between media sexism—measured as (i) the share of all news subjects that are women and (ii) the share of all news subjects portrayed in the function of experts who are women—and the share of women candidates for parliament: the higher the level of media sexism, the lower the share of women candidates. The theory discussed zooms in on a bystander effect: We hypothesize that sexist portrayals of women in the media stifle ambition among women who, in a less sexist media environment, would be willing to stand as political candidates.     

Education,cognitive ability,and cause-specific mortality: A structural approach

Education is negatively associated with most major causes of death. Prior work ignores the premise that cause-specific hazards are interdependent and that both education and mortality depend on cognitive ability. We analyse Swedish men aged 18–63, focusing on months lost due to specific causes—which solves the interdependence problem—and use a structural model that accounts for confounding due to cognitive ability. In a standard Cox model controlling for Intelligence Quotient, improving education is associated with large decreases in mortality for major causes of death. In the structural model, improving education is associated with a small decrease in months lost for most causes and education levels. Among the least educated, however, improving education strongly reduces the months lost, mainly those lost from external causes, such as accidents and suicide. Results suggest that conventional analysis of education and mortality may be biased, even if accounting for observed cognition.     

电信企业战略管理中的协同分析

协同是企业获取竞争优势的重要源泉.电信企业战略管理中要实现协同效应,就要先认识协同,关注企业各战略资源之间的协同性,从而提升电信企业竞争优势.在详细论述协同的本质的基础上,从定性和定量两个不同的角度对电信企业的战略资源进行了协同分析,提出了实现电信企业管理协同优势的相关战略建议.     

我国中性财政政策选择解析

从一国经济的可持续发展来看,积极财政政策的实施只能是阶段性、暂时性的,随着一国经济形势的发展变化应适时适度做出相应调整,才能更加科学地调控宏观经济布局和结构,使其沿着健康、稳定的发展运行轨道前进。伴随着我国积极财政政策的连续实行,经济增长加速效应突出,国民经济领域产生了许多结构性的问题和矛盾,这迫使我国财政政策的选择有必要由扩张性向中性转移。把握积极财政政策向中性的财政政策逐步过渡的“火候”,就要充分适应经济形势的不断变化,在调控目标、调控方式、调控手段和方法组合上进行适时调整,采用更为适合我国国情的科学的宏观调控财政手段。     

中国对俄直接投资对中俄贸易的影响

中国对俄直接投资的迅速发展必然会对中俄贸易产生一定的影响.为深入分析中国对俄直接投资的贸易效应,采用面板数据模型,对中国对俄直接投资与进出口之间的关系进行实证研究,并将俄罗斯与中国其他主要投资东道国的情况进行比较分析.结果表明:中国对俄直接投资具有显著的出口创造效应与进口创造效应,且出口创造效应高于进口创造效应;与其他主要投资东道国相比,中国对俄直接投资对出口的促进作用较强,而对进口的促进作用较弱.