Monetary policy,trade-offs and the transmission of UK Monetary Policy

We provide a new method to model changes in monetary policy of the Bank of England (BoE) as well as the impact of these changes on UK economy. This is important as central bankers have widened the range of instruments in their monetary policy toolbox. Specifically, we estimate a proxy for the monetary policy stance and then analyse a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive with stochastic volatility model to explain the BoE’s trade-offs when making policy decisions and as well as to demonstrate dynamic impacts of monetary policy on inflation and economic growth. The empirical results show that our estimated monetary policy proxy is better at capturing the BoE’s policy when the interest rate lower bound becomes binding.     

实际股票收益、通货膨胀与货币政策的周期性

国外经验表明,顺周期和逆周期货币政策对实际股票收益和通货膨胀的关系有着不同的影响。顺周期货币政策导致实际股票收益与通货膨胀呈正相关关系,逆周期货币政策导致二者呈负相关关系。1991年1月～2002年10月期间,中国实际股票收益与通货膨胀呈现明显的负相关关系,且二者的负相关关系是稳定的;货币政策基本上表现为逆经济周期特性,但调整缓慢,导致了实际股票收益与通货膨胀的负相关关系;格兰杰因果检验表明,实际经济活动是通货膨胀的格兰杰原因,货币供给不是通货膨胀的格兰杰原因,支持了Fama提出的关于股票收益与通货膨胀负相关的代理效应假设。     

Beyond Munchausen by Proxy: A Proposed Conceptualization for Cases of Recurring,Unsubstantiated Sexual Abuse Allegations

In the emerging literature, cases involving recurring, unsubstantiated allegations of child sexual abuse have generally been categorized as Munchausen by proxy. Recent scholars have recommended restricting the label to the original conceptualization, involving purposeful deception motivated by psychological needs for medical attention. This leaves many cases unclassified that do not fit the Munchausen by proxy criteria, involve significant risks to the child, and ultimately fall outside of existing structures for Child Protective Services/legal intervention. This paper presents a reconceptualization of such cases, proposing to label them “recurring sexual abuse allegation” cases. Defining the set of cases more clearly can aid child protection workers in their management and encourage research on prevalence, consequences to children, treatment strategies, and needed legal reforms.     

Revisiting ethnography by proxy

Abstract

Prompted by discovering a paper written in 1980 which described a process of ‘ethnography by proxy’, I revisit this concept in the light of two research projects: a workplace study of an electronics company conducted in the early 1990s and a later home-based study of young children’s encounters with toys and technology. The paper defines ethnography by proxy as the process of delegating some of the ethnographer’s activities to participants in the research setting. It discusses a pragmatic response to some of the challenges of conducting fieldwork and considers the implications of delegating non-academic proxies to fulfil aspects of the ethnographer’s role, the different guises that may be taken by the ethnographer and what this shift in research relationships might mean for the interpretation of data. The concept of proxy has implications for some of the tenets of ethnographic research as it requires a re-examination of our roles and the relationship between researcher and researched.     

农地征用过程中农民权益保护问题研究

在农地征用过程中,农民作为弱势群体,其利益必须受到保护。而我国现行的农地征用制度很不合理,这是导致被征地农民权益得不到有效保护的根本原因。为了保护被征地农民的合法权益,建议从以下几个方面来完善农地征用制度,即严格控制土地征用的范围;完善土地征用补偿机制;完善征地程序,赋予被征地农民知情权、参与权和起诉权;建立健全失地农民社会保障制度。     

表决权代理征集制度研究

表决权代理征集制度是一项重要的公司治理法律制度。它就像一柄双刃剑,既可以成为保护公司和股东利益、优化公司治理结构的有力手段,又可能沦为投机人士争夺公司控制权、损害公司和股东利益的工具。我国目前尚未建立统一完备的表决代理权制度,但近年来我国上市公司治理实践中已经出现了运用这一制度的真实案例,由于缺乏法律规制,其行为颇不规范。因此,笔者针对存在的问题,借鉴先进国家和地区立法经验,从征集主体、征集行为、征集过程中的信息披露、表决权征集之民事责任四个维度,对完善我国表决权代理征集制度进行相关研究。     

试论独立教唆罪的设立

教唆行为的错综复杂,无疑将教唆犯问题变成了刑法理论界极具争议的话题。我国《刑法》第29条规定：“教唆他人犯罪的,应当按照他在共同犯罪中所起的作用处罚。教唆不满十八周岁的人犯罪,应当从重处罚。如果被教唆的人没有犯被教唆的罪,对于教唆犯,可以从轻或者减轻处罚。”此种立法例存在明显欠妥之处,将两种不同类型的教唆犯规定在同一刑法条文当中,无疑会致使学界在研究教唆犯问题时分不清两者的界限。应采用比较研究的方法,将共犯教唆犯与非共犯教唆犯区分开来。由于目前教唆犯问题在立法上和实践中都存在诸多矛盾,应将非共犯教唆犯从刑法总则中的“共同犯罪”一章中独立出来,单独设立教唆罪,置于分则当中。     

Common-factor stochastic volatility modelling with observable proxy

Multi-asset modelling is of fundamental importance to financial applications such as risk management and portfolio selection. In this article, we propose a multivariate stochastic volatility modelling framework with a parsimonious and interpretable correlation structure. Building on well-established evidence of common volatility factors among individual assets, we consider a multivariate diffusion process with a common-factor structure in the volatility innovations. Upon substituting an observable market proxy for the common volatility factor, we markedly improve the estimation of several model parameters and latent volatilities. The model is applied to a portfolio of several important constituents of the S&P500 in the financial sector, with the VIX index as the common-factor proxy. We find that the prediction intervals for asset forecasts are comparable to those of more complex dependence models, but that option-pricing uncertainty can be greatly reduced by adopting a common-volatility structure. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 36–61; 2020 © 2020 Statistical Society of Canada     

The protection of unrepresented patients in emergency care research

In emergency care research, it may be the case that neither informed consent nor surrogate consent is possible. In order to nonetheless allow for such research, codes and regulations of research ethics have increasingly incorporated provisions regarding this specific situation. The protection that those provisions offer need to be better understood. This article addresses in what ways they protect individuals, and especially the extent to which the suggested protection compensates for the loss of surrogate consent. The Declaration of Helsinki, the Additional Protocol to the Convention on Human Rights and Biomedicine, and the EU Clinical Trials Regulation serve as the main illustrations.     

基于个性优势特征识别的区域科技发展模式分析方法及应用

基于区域科技能力的个性优势特征识别,提出了一种区域科技发展模式的分析方法.该方法以确定社会系统内个体的价值取向为出发点,采用2-范数意义下的距离,从最有利于每个个体的角度出发,实现客观识别其个性优势特征.同时,基于识别到的个性优势状况,对所有个体进行系统聚类及"民主代理"评价,并以此为基础对系统的模式进行分析与推介.最后,将该方法应用于我国大陆31个省级区域2002～2004年科技发展模式的分析,并提出促进我国区域科技发展的相应对策.