Anticipated Ethics and Regulatory Challenges in PCORnet: The National Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network

PCORnet, the National Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network, seeks to establish a robust national health data network for patient-centered comparative effectiveness research. This article reports the results of a PCORnet survey designed to identify the ethics and regulatory challenges anticipated in network implementation. A 12-item online survey was developed by leadership of the PCORnet Ethics and Regulatory Task Force; responses were collected from the 29 PCORnet networks. The most pressing ethics issues identified related to informed consent, patient engagement, privacy and confidentiality, and data sharing. High priority regulatory issues included IRB coordination, privacy and confidentiality, informed consent, and data sharing. Over 150 IRBs and five different approaches to managing multisite IRB review were identified within PCORnet. Further empirical and scholarly work, as well as practical and policy guidance, is essential if important initiatives that rely on comparative effectiveness research are to move forward.     

公共卫生支出、健康结果与卫生投入政策——基于189个国家和地区的面板门槛分析（1995—2011年）

利用189个国家和地区1995—2011年的数据实证检验公共卫生支出规模对一个国家的健康结果（婴儿死亡率和出生时的平均期望寿命）的影响，结果表明，公共卫生支出占GDP的比重对婴儿死亡率和出生时的平均期望寿命的影响具有门槛效应，门槛值分别位于1.9%和6.62%。分段回归结果显示，公共卫生支出占GDP的比重低于1.9%时，公共卫生投入对出生时的平均期望寿命没有显著影响，对婴儿死亡率的影响较弱；超过1.9%后，公共卫生投入的规模效应开始体现，对健康结果指标的影响均显著增强；超过6.62%后，公共卫生投入对婴儿死亡率的影响不再显著，对出生时平均期望寿命的弹性系数不再变化，单位边际贡献不再增加。中国当前政府卫生投入规模仍然较低，需要继续增大公共资金投入、降低个人卫生支出比重。     

Machine Learning Vasicek Model Calibration with Gaussian Processes

In this article, we calibrate the Vasicek interest rate model under the risk neutral measure by learning the model parameters using Gaussian processes for machine learning regression. The calibration is done by maximizing the likelihood of zero coupon bond log prices, using mean and covariance functions computed analytically, as well as likelihood derivatives with respect to the parameters. The maximization method used is the conjugate gradients. The only prices needed for calibration are zero coupon bond prices and the parameters are directly obtained in the arbitrage free risk neutral measure.     

Resource Distribution in Multiple Attacks with Imperfect Detection of the Attack Outcome

This article extends the previous research of consecutive attacks strategy by assuming that an attacker observes the outcome of each attack imperfectly. With given probabilities it may wrongly identify a destroyed target as undestroyed, and wrongly identify an undestroyed target as destroyed. The outcome of each attack is determined by a contest success function that depends on the amount of resources allocated by the defender and the attacker to each attack. The article suggests a probabilistic model of the multiple attacks and analyzes how the target destruction probability and the attacker's relative resource expenditure are impacted by the two probabilities of incorrect observation, the attacker's and defender's resource ratio, the contest intensity, the number of attacks, and the resource distribution across attacks. We analyze how the attacker chooses the number of attacks, the attack stopping rule, and the optimal resource distribution across attacks to maximize its utility.     

在公正与效率之间:证人出庭作证制度的困境和出路

证人出庭作证问题,涉及证明标准与法律假设、法律规则与法律标准、诉讼效率与诉讼成本、自利偏见与社会效应等诸多方面。证人不出庭作证的规范依据仍然存在、证人出庭作证的权利和义务不对等、配套措施不完善等原因,导致证人不愿意出庭。美国辩诉交易制度在很大程度上减少了开庭刑事案件的数量,其关于书面陈述的规定也减少了证人出庭作证的需求,在一定程度上实现了被告人人权保护和公共利益的平衡,值得借鉴。完善证人出庭作证制度,应以案件"客观需要"为标准,以追求事实真相为出发点,以人权保护和人性回归为落脚点,遵循限制性处罚原则和禁止利益冲突原则,提高相关规定的可操作性。因此,不宜盲目追求证人高出庭作证率。     

社会变迁过程中政府能力的政策学解读--基于系统论观点

中国正处于巨大的社会变迁之中，复杂性与不确定性的环境特征对政府能力提出了更高要求。从系统论的视角看，政府能力体现在政府对变迁中社会环境的反应、适应与变革能力。基于系统论的政策学解读，政府能力最终可以归为“制定”和“执行”公共政策的能力。从环境与组织管理的关系出发，围绕公共政策的生命过程，可以分别考察政府在输入、转化、输出三个环节中政策制定和政策执行的情况，进而探讨政府能力提升的路径。     

网络文学版权保护探析

侵犯网络文学著作权尤其是信息网络传播权的现象在当下十分严重。侵权的模式包括"云霄阁模式"和"百度模式"。它的背后既体现了社会公众、网络服务提供者和版权人之间的利益平衡,也是互联网精神、权利意识和商业模式三者博弈的结果。解决侵犯网络文学版权的问题需要注重培育公众正确的互联网意识、完善法律制度建设、创新文学网站的盈利模式及大力发挥社会组织的作用。保护网络文学著作权对创新虚拟社会管理有重要意义。     

Social cohesion in Rwanda: Results from a public good experiment

We describe a public good experiment, a type of economic experiment commonly used to examine feelings of prosociality—that is, behaviour which is positive, helpful and intended to promote social acceptance and friendship—and community cohesion, carried out in Rwanda. Contributions in different parts of the country are affected by the local intensity of the 1994 genocide, with more generous contributions being made in areas where violence was greater. This supports earlier research indicating that conflict experience leads to greater prosociality. However, we also find that people who have not, themselves, been targets of violence give lower contributions than people who have. The considerable group‐related and regional differences in social behaviour may have implications for the country's policies to deal with social cohesion.