舆论危机的异化极化效应研究

随着Web2.0时代的到来,网络媒体逐渐成为舆论生成、传播和交锋的主阵地,舆论危机的形成及其异化也成为日益突出的社会风险问题.本文以舆论的异化演化机理为研究对象,通过梳理典型事件舆论话题的异化过程,对其基本内涵、表现形式和演化模式等进行系统总结.随后,研究以舆论超网络模型为基础,借鉴社会影响理论的基本原则,提出舆论异化机理的极化算法,并对其具体流程进行解析和实现.最后,本文以“7·23甬温动车事故”为例,对舆论危机的异化极化过程和影响因素进行系统仿真和实证分析.     

Pricing and momentum of syndicated credit in Europe

We investigate the determinants of syndicated loan prices for European borrowers, spanning the entire period of credit expansion and crisis. We construct a large data base consisting of 2102 rated syndicated loan deals from 1990 to 2008 in twenty three countries and ten economic sectors. We investigate the effects on the spread paid over the risk free rate of three major groups of factors: loan characteristics, borrower characteristics and characteristics of country of the borrower, using both qualitative and quantitative variables in a hedonic regression. The results show that all three groups are significant joint determinants of prices of syndicated credit. Our results confirm the existing literature but also provide for first time results stemming form the risk characteristics of the borrower and the country of the borrower. It is shown that distance-to-default as well as aggregate risk associated with country of the borrower are of great concern to the lenders and hence significantly affect the pricing of syndicated loans. Furthermore, we report that financial institutions and public utilities are able to negotiate for cheaper loans, but this result is reversed when financing is for acquisition purposes. Overall, risk, liquidity, solvency and sustainable performance by both the borrower and its domicile country are key determinants of syndicated loan prices.     

Nanotechnology Risk Communication Past and Prologue

Nanotechnologies operate at atomic, molecular, and macromolecular scales, at scales where matter behaves differently than at larger scales and quantum effects can dominate. Nanotechnologies have captured the imagination of science fiction writers as science, engineering, and industry have leapt to the challenge of harnessing them. Applications are proliferating. In contrast, despite recent progress the regulatory landscape is not yet coherent, and public awareness of nanotechnology remains low. This has led risk researchers and critics of current nanotechnology risk communication efforts to call for proactive strategies that do more than address facts, that include and go beyond the public participation stipulated by some government acts. A redoubling of nanotechnology risk communication efforts could enable consumer choice and informed public discourse about regulation and public investments in science and safety.     

Informed Public Preferences for Electricity Portfolios with CCS and Other Low‐Carbon Technologies

Public perceptions of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and other low‐carbon electricity‐generating technologies may affect the feasibility of their widespread deployment. We asked a diverse sample of 60 participants recruited from community groups in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to rank 10 technologies (e.g., coal with CCS, natural gas, nuclear, various renewables, and energy efficiency), and seven realistic low‐carbon portfolios composed of these technologies, after receiving comprehensive and carefully balanced materials that explained the costs and benefits of each technology. Rankings were obtained in small group settings as well as individually before and after the group discussions. The ranking exercise asked participants to assume that the U.S. Congress had mandated a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from power plants to be built in the future. Overall, rankings suggest that participants favored energy efficiency, followed by nuclear power, integrated gasification combined‐cycle coal with CCS and wind. The most preferred portfolio also included these technologies. We find that these informed members of the general public preferred diverse portfolios that contained CCS and nuclear over alternatives once they fully understood the benefits, cost, and limitations of each. The materials and approach developed for this study may also have value in educating members of the general public about the challenges of achieving a low‐carbon energy future.     

Public sector managers: the decision to leave or remain in a job

The public sector faces a grave problem as far as managerial retention as the result of the increasing number of retirements and of voluntary resignations. Despite the vital interest in managerial turnover in the public sector, research is scarce. This study, which increases our understanding of why public sector managers leave their positions, takes a qualitative and narrative research approach in examining voluntary turnover. Interviews were conducted with operations managers (in education, social care, and technical activities) at three Swedish municipalities. We identify a multitude of environment push and pull factors with a focus on administrative support, supervisory support and illegitimate tasks. The narratives of managerial turnover reveal the complexity of the decision to leave or remain in a job, containing a mixture of push and pull factors, negative feelings, unmet expectations and extraordinary events. Three possible HRD actions to decrease undesirable managerial turnover are identified: re-work organizational structures; re-model job characteristics; and re-examine managerial turnover decisions as a long and complex process. Our hope is that the findings are used for ultimately create healthy organizations.     

It's Complicated: The 2014–2015 U.S. Measles Outbreak and Parents’ Vaccination Beliefs,Confidence, and Intentions

While it seems intuitive that highly visible vaccine‐preventable disease outbreaks should impact perceptions of disease risk and facilitate vaccination, few empirical studies exist to confirm or dispel these beliefs. This study investigates the impact of the 2014–2015 Disneyland measles outbreak on parents’ vaccination attitudes and future vaccination intentions. The analysis relies on a pair of public opinion surveys of American parents with at least one child under the age of six (N = 1,000 across each survey). Controlling for basic demographics, we found higher levels of reported confidence in the safety and efficacy of childhood vaccinations in our follow‐up data collection. However, this confidence was also accompanied by elevated levels of concern toward childhood vaccines among American parents. We then examined how different subgroups in the population scored on these measures before and after the outbreak. We found that parents with high levels of interest in the topic of vaccines and a child who is not fully upto date with the recommended vaccination schedule reported more supportive attitudes toward vaccines. However, future intentions to follow the recommended vaccination schedule were not positively impacted by the outbreak. Possible explanations for these results and implications for vaccination outreach are discussed.     

关系型贷款、市场结构与小额贷款公司使命漂移

我国小额贷款公司发展极为迅速,但小微企业融资难问题依然严峻,小额贷款公司存在着显著的使命漂移.对于微型金融机构的使命漂移问题,大量的研究主要以财务可持续性为视角.本文结合关系型贷款理论和市场结构理论并构建理论模型,以一个新的视角分析我国小额贷款公司的使命漂移问题,证明了开展关系型贷款和提升小额贷款市场的竞争程度均有利于小额贷款公司发放更多的小额贷款,增加小微企业等融资主体的信贷可得性,从而避免使命漂移.进一步的,通过对一个代表性城市小额贷款公司的相关数据分析,认为小额贷款公司使命漂移的内在原因是关系型贷款技术运用不足和小额贷款市场竞争程度较低.     

Culture and Crisis Communication: Nestle India's Maggi Noodles Case

Extant theoretical paradigms in the field of crisis communication are organization-centric and do not adequately recognize the role of culture. The purpose of this essay is to analyze a crisis faced by Nestle India using the framework of global public relations which defines culture broadly to include political, economic, media, societal, and activist cultures. Our analysis revealed that a multinational corporation with over a century of presence in the country struggled to align itself to the complexities of the cultures of the host country. In the case of Nestle India, whereas environmental variables such as political economy and Westernization of urban India boosted the growth of its instant noodles, the multinational also struggled to cope with the rise of media corporatization, activist pressure and the vagaries of regulatory enforcement not to speak of cultural nationalism. It is evident that Nestlé's crisis response was governed more by its traditional corporate culture than by an ability to keep pace with the changing demands of its environment, leading to the amplification of an issue into a crisis. The study concludes that multinationals that ignore culture will be forced to pay a heavy price both in terms of reputation and the bottom line.     

Use of Redundant Industrial Buildings as Injections into the Cultural Sector in Norway

Prime aim is to examine the way the culture sector reuses industrial buildings to instigate cultural activities in the municipalities. The discussion of various actors’ motivation for engagement is based on results from a case study, supplemented with findings from a coarse-meshed telephone survey. At national level overarching political guidelines can be traced back to white papers concerning cultural policy, urban transformation and cultural heritage, and the municipalities’ cultural policies mirror these guidelines. What tends to decide if such initiatives are considered successful are local abilities to cross sectorial divisions and instigate cooperation between municipal planners, private entrepreneurs and NGOs.     

我国上市公司银行贷款与投资行为的关系研究——基于终极控制人性质调节效应的分析

主要研究不同终极控制人上市公司的银行贷款数量和期限结构对其投资行为的影响,以揭示股东-债权人代理冲突和银行贷款作为治理机制在公司投资方面所带来的综合后果。研究结果表明,银行贷款与投资支出显著负相关,短期贷款比长期贷款对投资扩张的约束力更大;无论是国家终极控制还是非国家终极控制的上市公司中,短期贷款对投资扩张起到明显的制约作用,但是在国家终极控制的上市公司中,长期贷款对决策者产生了更大的过度投资激励;中央终极控制的上市公司中短期贷款发挥了约束作用,长期贷款作用并不明显;地方终极控制的上市公司中短期贷款的约束作用不显著,但是其长期贷款产生了明显的过度投资激励。