政府管制与双寡头企业社会责任行为的博弈研究

企业不负责任行为同时受到政府管制和产品竞争的双重约束。本文构建了政府与双寡头企业的三阶段博弈模型,分析了政府偏好和政府执行力与政府治理企业不负责任行为的政策的关系,揭示了其中所蕴含的"政府偏好悖论"。研究表明:政府惩治企业不负责任行为的关键,是让企业从不负责任行为中所失大于所得;无论政府的偏好如何,都有可能放松对企业不负责任行为的管制,而且政府越偏好短期社会利益,就越不可能将不负责任的企业清除出市场;政府治理不负责任企业的矛盾心理,根源于企业不负责任行为的两面性。     

基于熵权法的科学技术评价模型及其实证研究

以“坚持以人为本,全面、协调、可持续”的科学发展观内涵为指导思想,通过科技指标的海选、筛选和理性分析构建了科技综合评价指标体系。用熵权法客观地对评价指标进行赋权,建立了基于熵权法的中国“十五”期间的科学技术发展状况评价模型,并给出了“十一五”期间科技发展政策建议。研究特色有五：①根据国际关注、又好又快、可持续发展和以人为本的原则建立指标体系,使科学技术的评价反映科学发展观的要求;②通过熵权法客观地确定指标权重,避免了人为主观确定权重的随意性;③利用熵权法确定的熵值,确保了仅用24个指标反映了95．5％以上的原始信息;④通过对影响科学技术整体效果的准则层进行评价,有助于找出科技发展各环节存在的问题;⑤通过对中国“十五”期间科技发展中的主要问题的分析,给出了“十一五”期间中国科技发展的政策建议。     

我国科技合作项目管理机制的缺陷分析与改进对策

为解决我国科技管理部门对科技合作项目管理流于形式的问题,结合科技计划项目的发展趋势,阐述了完善科技合作项目管理机制的必要性,并通过分析指出现行管理机制中存在法律法规不健全和监控、评估机制不完善的缺陷。最后,从项目管理全过程视角提出了对科技合作项目实施科学管理及提高管理效率的对策。     

基于微观结构视角的非经常性损益噪音研究

以证监会对非经常性损益的修订为事件,选择深市2004年度披露的非经常性损益的上市公司为研究对象,采用非经常性损益的定价误差方法以及加入虚拟变量的日内收益和隔夜收益的回归分析方法,并将非经常性损益区分为非经常性收益和非经常性损失后分组进行分析,从市场微观结构角度对非经常性收益和损失的信息噪音进行研究。研究结果表明,事件日后的非经常性损失定价误差明显降低,其信息噪音降低,而非经常性收益只有最大值组的定价误差明显降低。日间收益和隔夜收益的回归结果表明,由于非经常性收益和损失造成暂时偏离价值的价格会迅速得到修正,非经常性收益和损失的信息噪音降低。证监会对非经常性损益的修订在一定程度上降低了其信息噪音,政策实施后具有一定的效果。     

A Risk Analysis Model in Concurrent Engineering Product Development

Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various risks and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three‐dimensional early warning approach for product development risk management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation models are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development risk management model. Solutions lead to identification of key risk controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to risk analysis as a means to monitor various risks typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various risks in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD risk analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for risk management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the models. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company.     

Informed Public Preferences for Electricity Portfolios with CCS and Other Low‐Carbon Technologies

Public perceptions of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and other low‐carbon electricity‐generating technologies may affect the feasibility of their widespread deployment. We asked a diverse sample of 60 participants recruited from community groups in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to rank 10 technologies (e.g., coal with CCS, natural gas, nuclear, various renewables, and energy efficiency), and seven realistic low‐carbon portfolios composed of these technologies, after receiving comprehensive and carefully balanced materials that explained the costs and benefits of each technology. Rankings were obtained in small group settings as well as individually before and after the group discussions. The ranking exercise asked participants to assume that the U.S. Congress had mandated a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from power plants to be built in the future. Overall, rankings suggest that participants favored energy efficiency, followed by nuclear power, integrated gasification combined‐cycle coal with CCS and wind. The most preferred portfolio also included these technologies. We find that these informed members of the general public preferred diverse portfolios that contained CCS and nuclear over alternatives once they fully understood the benefits, cost, and limitations of each. The materials and approach developed for this study may also have value in educating members of the general public about the challenges of achieving a low‐carbon energy future.     

股权激励计划公告前的盈余管理——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文以"上市公司股权激励管理办法"颁布以来沪深两市首次披露股权激励计划的上市公司为研究对象,运用单样本T检验和配对样本T检验的方法,研究了股权激励计划公告日前经理人的盈余管理行为.研究发现:股权激励计划公告日前的三个季度,经理人通过操纵"操纵性应计利润"进行了向下的盈余管理,公告日后盈余存在反转现象;但是,并没有显著的证据表明经理人在股权激励计划公告日前通过操纵"非经常性损益"进行盈余管理.     

Uncertainty Analysis Based on Probability Bounds (P-Box) Approach in Probabilistic Safety Assessment

A wide range of uncertainties will be introduced inevitably during the process of performing a safety assessment of engineering systems. The impact of all these uncertainties must be addressed if the analysis is to serve as a tool in the decision-making process. Uncertainties present in the components (input parameters of model or basic events) of model output are propagated to quantify its impact in the final results. There are several methods available in the literature, namely, method of moments, discrete probability analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, and Dempster-Shafer theory. All the methods are different in terms of characterizing at the component level and also in propagating to the system level. All these methods have different desirable and undesirable features, making them more or less useful in different situations. In the probabilistic framework, which is most widely used, probability distribution is used to characterize uncertainty. However, in situations in which one cannot specify (1) parameter values for input distributions, (2) precise probability distributions (shape), and (3) dependencies between input parameters, these methods have limitations and are found to be not effective. In order to address some of these limitations, the article presents uncertainty analysis in the context of level-1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) based on a probability bounds (PB) approach. PB analysis combines probability theory and interval arithmetic to produce probability boxes (p-boxes), structures that allow the comprehensive propagation through calculation in a rigorous way. A practical case study is also carried out with the developed code based on the PB approach and compared with the two-phase Monte Carlo simulation results.