Estimation of life expectancy — cohort life table

Life tables are traditionally built with linear assumptions for the survival curve. Here, considering that survivors can remain at the end of the observation period, the author shows that non linear modeling is more appropriate. With data on cervix uteri cancer, e0 ≈ 12.5 years with standard error ≈ 2.8 years with infinite time horizon, but e0 ≈ 6.0 years with standard error ≈ 0.1 year in interval with finite time horizon [0, 12 years]. The average hazard function is introduced to estimate the life expectancy, and the actuarial estimate of the hazard function is showed to under‐estimate the true hazard values under the exponential distribution. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the probabilities of death on the estimation of life expectancy completes the study.     

Do grandparents matter? A multigenerational perspective on educational attainment in Taiwan

In response to the growing interest in multigenerational effects, we investigate whether grandparents’ education affects grandchildren’s transitions to academic high school and university in Taiwan. Drawing on social capital literature, we consider potential heterogeneity of the grandparent effect by parents’ characteristics and propose that grandparents’ education yields differential effects depending on parents’ education. Our results show tenuous effects of grandmother’s and grandfather’s years of schooling, net of parents’ education. However, the positive interaction effects between grandparents’ and parents’ years of schooling indicate that grandparents’ additional years of schooling are more beneficial to students with more educated parents than for students with less educated parents. The diverging gap in the likelihood of attending academic high school or university between students with parents in higher and lower ends of the educational hierarchy, along with increased levels of grandparents’ education, supports our hypothesis that grandparents’ education augments educational inequality by parents’ education.     

When everyone goes to college: The causal effect of college expansion on earnings

In this study, we estimate the causal effect of college expansion on earnings using the example of South Korea in the 1990s where the college enrollment rate increased from just over thirty percent to over eighty percent over a fifteen years period. We compare the pre-expansion cohort and the post-expansion cohort in order to identify those who would attend college because of the expansion but would not attend otherwise (compliers). We, then, estimate compliers’ earnings gain from the college expansion relative to the earnings changes of two control groups: those who either would or would not go to college regardless of college expansion (always-takers and never-takers). We find a striking gendered pattern; for men, the earnings return to college expansion is moderate and mostly driven by the increasing skill price, whereas, for women, the return is significantly large even net of the skill price change.     

The relationship between societal change and rising support for gender egalitarianism among men and women: Results from counterfactual analyses in the Netherlands, 1979–2012

This study examines the relationship between important social, cultural, economic, and demographic changes and the rise of support for gender egalitarianism within the Dutch population between 1979 and 2012. Cohort replacement, educational expansion, secularization, and the feminization of the labor force are important processes that have taken place in western societies in ways that may have fostered support for gender egalitarianism. Using unique data from 16 repeated cross-sectional surveys in the Netherlands, we estimate age-period-cohort regression models, and the outcomes are subsequently applied in counterfactual simulation designs. Our results show that the social, cultural, economic, and demographic changes explain only a small part of the modest rise in support for gender egalitarianism for men, while they provide a much better explanation of the stronger rise among women. Especially the replacement of older female cohorts by younger ones seems to have propelled support for gender egalitarianism among women throughout the years.     

高校扩招的政策过程分析

教育政策作为社会政策的重要组成部分，是一个动态的过程。政策的制定、政策的实施、政策的效果，针对效果进行的调整应当形成一种循环。以社会政策过程研究的思路审视高校扩招的政策制定、实施与结果评价，就会发现存在诸多的问题：政策制定的过程过于仓促，政策实施的过程数量先行，结果对经济拉动的目的并没有达到，且对入学机会的平等性、教育质量、就业问题都产生了一定的消极影响，因而政策还有诸多方面需要调整与改善。保证政策过程的针对性、合理性和有效性，是必然要考虑的问题。扩招政策在考虑经济效益的同时，要考虑教育自身的规律，还应当充分考虑其社会效益。所有的教育政策都是社会选择。政策的设计、实施、评价及自我调适是一个完整而又循环上升的选择过程。     

西部民族地区分类建设小康社会的模型和对策研究

根据中央关于统筹发展的新思路,结合西部民族地区的实际情况,西部民族地区应选择分类实施统筹发展的战略思路和发展模式,制定出相应的战略对策和政策措施.     

休假M/G/1排队系统离去过程的进一步分析

对具有多重和单重服务员假期的M／G／1排队系统，进一步分析了其离去过程，得到在（0，t］时间内离去平均数的LS变换表达式；证明了在t=0时刻系统中无顾客且服务员也开始休假的条件下，如果服务时间和休假时间均服从负指数分布，则（0，t］时间内离去平均数的LS变换表达式在到达率和服务率交换时是不变的：讨论了（0，t］时间内离去平均数的渐近展开，给出了便于计算的近似公式，具有重要的应用价值。     

使用《广东省建筑工程预算定额》应注意的问题

本文就新预算定额的主要特点作了简要的分析,对新预算定额与旧预算定额的差异和实际使用中应注意的几个问题略作阐述.为了新预算定额的进一步推广,结合当前预算定额的发展趋势,对新预算定额有待完善的地方和发展方向稍作探讨.     

网络文学的生态位及其拓展

生态位是衡量文学社会功能与地位的一个重要指标。一个时期的文学整体或具体作家作品生态位的高低，表明其社会影响力的大小。生态位评估的科学性在传统文学中得到了验证。对网络文学进行生态位测度时发现，其作品价值、作家名望、批评状况、阅读状况、传播媒介等方面都不尽如人意。这一方面是由于传统偏见或阅读惯性造成的；另一方面是网络文学本身量多质低造成的。网络文学类型化的套路写作导致精品力作少、文学生态位不高。因此，网络文学应进行精品IP开发，进行多文化产品如影视、游戏的产业链交互，产生更广泛的影响力，在文化拓展方面提升生态位。同时，网络文学要增强作家的主体素养，提升作品的艺术品质，尊重批评的积极介入，在文学本身提升生态位，使网络文学从野蛮生长走向康庄大道。     

陕西高等教育的现状、存在问题及创新途径

陕西高等教育规模发展之迅速,前所未有,但在迅速的进程中蕴含了不少危机因素,诸如高等教育的经费与条件、规模与质量、入学与就业等问题。如果处理不好其中任一环节,满足经济和社会发展、追求教育民主和平等的高等教育大众化这一目标就不可能真正实现。因此,预防诸多危机的出现,高等教育的改革与创新迫在眉睫,同时要处理好改革,发展和稳定的关系,保障高等教育事业健康发展。