从“同出而异名”角度解读老子的“圣人与百姓”思想

在《老子》传统的解读中,并没有将圣人和百姓放在对等的立场上,而忽视百姓的存在。事实上在老子的思想里,圣人和百姓是没有优劣之分的,二者都是推动"道"正常运动的力量,缺一不可,只是圣人和百姓在道的运动过程中扮演着不同角色。正是因为二者的共存,道才显现出既幽远深邃又生机盎然的特征。圣人和百姓作为两种不同的生命存在方式,共同维持着"宇宙—生命"系统的通塞平衡。     

关于建立城乡统一的社会保障体系的浅见

建立城乡统一的社会保障体系不仅是学术界争论的焦点，也是实践部门讨论的热点。各种主张众说纷纭。然而，建立统一的社会保障体系不能凭空设想，应立足于实际，坚持具体问题具体分析。当务之急是根据农村的情况，分地方、分人群、分层次建立安全有效的农村社会保障体系。     

哈尼族研究中史误的三点辨正

国内有关哈尼族的研究近年来硕果累累,但有的论著中对某些史料的理解存在误区.本文以原始资料为依据,针对哈尼族研究中涉及到的<尚书·禹贡>记载与梯田的关系,明初黔西北、滇东北有无"和泥芒部府",康熙时参与反清起义的龙韬之地位与族属三个问题,进行了相关的考证分析,提出了不同于以往的看法.     

唐宋时期回族先民对西北商业经济的开发与贡献

重视商业经济,是伊斯兰教的特点之一。唐宋时期,伴随着伊斯兰教的传入,回族先民对西北商业经济进行了开发。他们一方面继承了阿拉伯商业的传统,另一方面在新的环境下,又有所创新、有所发展。在长期不断的开发中,为西北区域经济的繁荣与发展,做出了重要的贡献。     

Inference in Semi‐Parametric Dynamic Models for Repeated Count Data

This paper deals with a longitudinal semi‐parametric regression model in a generalised linear model setup for repeated count data collected from a large number of independent individuals. To accommodate the longitudinal correlations, we consider a dynamic model for repeated counts which has decaying auto‐correlations as the time lag increases between the repeated responses. The semi‐parametric regression function involved in the model contains a specified regression function in some suitable time‐dependent covariates and a non‐parametric function in some other time‐dependent covariates. As far as the inference is concerned, because the non‐parametric function is of secondary interest, we estimate this function consistently using the independence assumption‐based well‐known quasi‐likelihood approach. Next, the proposed longitudinal correlation structure and the estimate of the non‐parametric function are used to develop a semi‐parametric generalised quasi‐likelihood approach for consistent and efficient estimation of the regression effects in the parametric regression function. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimation approach is examined through an intensive simulation study based on both large and small samples. Both balanced and unbalanced cluster sizes are incorporated in the simulation study. The asymptotic performances of the estimators are given. The estimation methodology is illustrated by reanalysing the well‐known health care utilisation data consisting of counts of yearly visits to a physician by 180 individuals for four years and several important primary and secondary covariates.     

抗日文学光环掩盖下的文革

何顿的抗日题材长篇小说《来生再见》,其写作的重心不在抗日,而在文革;作家关注的不是历史,而是普通人在极端政治条件下人性的挣扎。生存环境险恶严酷的抗战时期,主人公黄抗日能够应用自己的生存哲学虎口脱身,回到家中安静地生活;但在文革的政治环境下,他却被逼得装疯、吃屎,家破人亡,生活、人格肢解得体无完肤。作品通过这种对比竖起了一座文革无字碑,形成对文革无言的控诉。     

Quasi-binomial zero-inflated regression model suitable for variables with bounded support

In recent years, a variety of regression models, including zero-inflated and hurdle versions, have been proposed to explain the case of a dependent variable with respect to exogenous covariates. Apart from the classical Poisson, negative binomial and generalised Poisson distributions, many proposals have appeared in the statistical literature, perhaps in response to the new possibilities offered by advanced software that now enables researchers to implement numerous special functions in a relatively simple way. However, we believe that a significant research gap remains, since very little attention has been paid to the quasi-binomial distribution, which was first proposed over fifty years ago. We believe this distribution might constitute a valid alternative to existing regression models, in situations in which the variable has bounded support. Therefore, in this paper we present a zero-inflated regression model based on the quasi-binomial distribution, taking into account the moments and maximum likelihood estimators, and perform a score test to compare the zero-inflated quasi-binomial distribution with the zero-inflated binomial distribution, and the zero-inflated model with the homogeneous model (the model in which covariates are not considered). This analysis is illustrated with two data sets that are well known in the statistical literature and which contain a large number of zeros.     

宋蒙战争与易代之际宋诗的诗史书写

宋蒙战争是一场关乎南宋最终命运走向的战争,宋末诗家心系时局,以诗为史,反映战事进展.局部战争时期,李曾伯、魏了翁等人在诗中表达对川蜀局势的关切.蒙古分三路正式进攻南宋后,王同祖在金陵幕中以诗专记战时应对之策与襄樊、江淮战事,补充了正史之外的细节.钓鱼城大捷后,刘克庄等人除以诗相庆外,还对战局的走向充满忧思.至襄樊战败,...     

论鸦片战争前后广东民众反侵略斗争的影响

鸦片战争前后广东民众反侵略斗争,沉重打击了外来侵略势力,冲击了地方官府的媚外政策,捍卫了自身权益,但也产生了一些负面影响。     

朝鲜战争期间美国决策层内部分歧与战争限度

朝鲜战争爆发,美国决策层对之作出迅速反应,然而对其干涉限度意见不一。战争限度问题成为杜鲁门政府和麦克阿瑟争执的焦点所在。以麦克阿瑟的解职为结局的事实,一方面反映了美国决策层内部矛盾发展的必然走向,另一方面也反映了美国政府执行的“有限战争”不仅符合冷战国际背景下美国全球战略的需要,而且也是美国政府和人民最易接受的理性选择。