党的十六大对邓小平理论的丰富与发展

党的十六大是我们党在新世纪召开的第一次代表大会,是为实施社会主义现代化建设第三步战略目标、全面建设小康社会的重要会议。它全面地深化和发展了邓小平理论。突出表现在:把“三个代表”作为党的指导思想写入党章,把“与时俱进”纳入党的思想路线,深刻阐释“全面建设小康社会”的内含、“扩大中等收入者比重”、保护“合法的非劳动收入”等等。本文对此予以论证。     

商业银行的中小企业信贷风险因素及其管理对策

中小企业信贷风险高被认为是造成其融资难的关键原因,也是商业银行信贷风险管理的难点之一.实证调查的结果表明,影响中小企业信贷风险的因素可归纳为企业、银行和环境三大方面十二个关键因素.就商业银行可控因素而言,应从内控机制等四方面入手化解中小企业信贷风险.但不同的被试类别对风险因素和策略表现出不同的看法.     

Estimation of a Change Point in a Hazard Function Based on Censored Data

The hazard function plays an important role in reliability or survival studies since it describes the instantaneous risk of failure of items at a time point, given that they have not failed before. In some real life applications, abrupt changes in the hazard function are observed due to overhauls, major operations or specific maintenance activities. In such situations it is of interest to detect the location where such a change occurs and estimate the size of the change. In this paper we consider the problem of estimating a single change point in a piecewise constant hazard function when the observed variables are subject to random censoring. We suggest an estimation procedure that is based on certain structural properties and on least squares ideas. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of this estimator with two estimators available in the literature: an estimator based on a functional of the Nelson-Aalen estimator and a maximum likelihood estimator. The proposed least squares estimator tums out to be less biased than the other two estimators, but has a larger variance. We illustrate the estimation method on some real data sets.     

Missing at random (MAR) in nonparametric regression - A simulation experiment

The additive model is considered when some observations on x are missing at random but corresponding observations on y are available. Especially for this model, missing at random is an interesting case because the complete case analysis is expected to be no more suitable. A simulation experiment is reported and the different methods are compared based on their superiority with respect to the sample mean squared error. Some focus is also given on the sample variance and the estimated bias. In detail, the complete case analysis, a kind of stochastic mean imputation, a single imputation and the nearest neighbor imputation are discussed.     

Empirical Uncertain Bayes Methods in Area‐level Models

Random effects model can account for the lack of fitting a regression model and increase precision of estimating area‐level means. However, in case that the synthetic mean provides accurate estimates, the prior distribution may inflate an estimation error. Thus, it is desirable to consider the uncertain prior distribution, which is expressed as the mixture of a one‐point distribution and a proper prior distribution. In this paper, we develop an empirical Bayes approach for estimating area‐level means, using the uncertain prior distribution in the context of a natural exponential family, which we call the empirical uncertain Bayes (EUB) method. The regression model considered in this paper includes the Poisson‐gamma and the binomial‐beta, and the normal‐normal (Fay–Herriot) model, which are typically used in small area estimation. We obtain the estimators of hyperparameters based on the marginal likelihood by using a well‐known expectation‐maximization algorithm and propose the EUB estimators of area means. For risk evaluation of the EUB estimator, we derive a second‐order unbiased estimator of a conditional mean squared error by using some techniques of numerical calculation. Through simulation studies and real data applications, we evaluate a performance of the EUB estimator and compare it with the usual empirical Bayes estimator.     

中小企业集群担保与财务危机的关系研究--来自长三角和珠三角上市公司的实证

集群担保与中小企业财务危机之间的关系是政策制定者与企业家们所关注的焦点问题之一。依据长三角地区和珠三角地区中小企业的微观数据,建立面板数据模型,研究中小企业集群担保行为对其财务情况的影响。研究表明,集群担保有利于缓解中小企业的财务危机。回归结果表明,长三角地区集群担保对企业财务危机的缓解作用更明显。     

基于随机森林模型的分类数据缺失值插补

缺失数据是影响调查问卷数据质量的重要因素,对调查问卷中的缺失值进行插补可以显著提高调查数据的质量。调查问卷的数据类型多以分类型数据为主,数据挖掘技术中的分类算法是处理属性分类问题的常用方法,随机森林模型是众多分类算法中精度较高的方法之一。将随机森林模型引入调查问卷缺失数据的插补研究中,提出了基于随机森林模型的分类数据缺失值插补方法,并根据不同的缺失模式探讨了相应的插补步骤。通过与其它方法的实证模拟比较,表明随机森林插补法得到的插补值准确度更优、可信度更高。     

城商行经营效率及其影响因素实证分析——基于53家城商行面板数据的随机前沿模型

根据2009—2011年国内53家城商行相应数据可构建计算城商行经营效率的随机前沿模型。样本城商行总资产占当年城商行总资产的比重达到了70%,样本商行分布于国内29个省、市、自治区、直辖市,由此可得出影响城商行经营效率的影响因素。实证研究结果发现:2009—2011年间,随着跨区域经营的大力推进、引进战略投资者、公司治理机制改革的深入以及资产质量控制的提升,国内城商行经营效率呈现出明显的改进趋势,第一大股东非国有股、引进战略投资者、跨区域经营、降低不良贷款率、降低第一大股东的持股比例等均对城商行的经营绩效产生显著的积极影响。     

检测系统分辨力定量计算的研究

分辨力是传感器和测量仪器的重要技术参数。数字仪器的分辨力通常取决于内部模数转换器的位数,但如何确定由仪器和传感器组成的检测系统的分辨力,目前尚未见到与之相关的专门性研究成果。该文论证了检测系统的分辨力只与随机误差相关,要提高分辨力就必须减小测量结果的随机波动。通过实验提出了检测系统分辨力的定量计算公式,并证明了其置信概率大于90.9%。     

切花菊扦插繁殖技术研究

试验研究了枝条节位、介质及生长调节剂对切花菊插技生根的影响 .结果表明 ,梢段的生根能力高于基段 ,但生根率差异不明显 ;较优的扦插介质是河沙 :腐叶土 :园土 =2 :2 :1的混合介质 ;生根类生长调节剂处理可促进插枝生根 ,其中以 IBA或 IBA NAA效果最好