Estimation of a rare sensitive attribute for two-stage randomized response model in probability proportional to size sampling using Poisson probability distribution

This paper addresses the estimation of the mean number of individuals in the population who possess a rare sensitive attribute using Poisson distribution for the situations of (i) clustered population and (ii) stratified population with clusters are strata units. Properties of the proposed estimation procedures have been discussed when the proportion of a rare unrelated non-sensitive attribute is assumed to be known as well as unknown. Empirical studies are carried out to support the theoretical results which showed dominance over Lee et al. [Estimation of a rare sensitive attribute in probability proportional to size measures using Poisson distribution. Statistics (Ber). 2014;48(3):685–709] estimation procedures.     

Underprotection of Unpredictable Statistical Lives Compared to Predictable Ones

Existing ethical discussion considers the differences in care for identified versus statistical lives. However, there has been little attention to the different degrees of care that are taken for different kinds of statistical lives. Here we argue that for a given number of statistical lives at stake, there will sometimes be different, and usually greater, care taken to protect predictable statistical lives, in which the number of lives that will be lost can be predicted fairly accurately, than for unpredictable statistical lives, where the lives are at stake because of a low‐probability event, such that most likely no one will be affected by the decision but with low probability some lives will be at stake. One reason for this difference is the statistical challenge of estimating low probabilities, and in particular the tendency of common approaches to underestimate these probabilities. Another is the existence of rational incentives to treat unpredictable risks as if the probabilities were lower than they are. Some of these factors apply outside the pure economic context, to institutions, individuals, and governments. We argue that there is no ethical reason to treat unpredictable statistical lives differently from predictable statistical lives. Moreover, lives that are unpredictable from the perspective of an individual agent may become predictable when aggregated to the level of a societal decision. Underprotection of unpredictable statistical lives is a form of market failure that may need to be corrected by altering regulation, introducing compulsory liability insurance, or other social policies.     

《文心雕龙》用典刍议

刘勰《文心雕龙》运用了大量的典故.该书典故的运用,为表达内容服务,增强了理论阐述的形象性和说服力;用典采用多种技巧和方法,显现了骈文语言的精美、华丽、典雅;用典展示了刘勰的文化心态和人生追求.典故运用宛转自如,用人若己,精彩绝妙;既提升了《文心雕龙》的思想意蕴、学术价值、文化品位,又为典故的传播、普及和强化做出了贡献.     

Rear gunners and troubled privates: Wordplay in a dick joke competition1

A humorous competition called ‘The Adventures of Naked Man’ ran in a Wellington (New Zealand) newspaper from 1999 to 2000. The competition's protagonist is the sole naked person in a drawn setting where, because of some convenient object or body position, his penis is obscured from sight. Entrants to the competition submitted a caption to go with the drawn setting, the point being to make humour. Without explicit instruction, most entrants constructed some form of dick joke, the interesting questions being, just how, and with what variations? These questions are pursued by drawing on the full corpus of Naked Man settings and captions. Basic principles of conversation analysis, including some early work of Sacks on punning, are used to analyse the nature and popularity of the Naked Man competition. The article also offers some more speculative comments to do with gender and the organisation of language about sexuality.     

毛泽东诗词中典故的英译探析

大量用典是毛泽东诗词的一大特点,典故的恰当处理对毛诗的翻译至关重要。把毛诗典故分类,从五种《毛泽东诗词》英译本中选取代表性的典故的英译,列表分析典故的翻译,发现虽然这些英文版本的译者、译者的国别及出版的年代不同,但他们的对典故的处理方式有很大的共性。这些方法对汉语诗词中典故的翻译有一定借鉴意义。     

语言基本功是成功翻译的基石

文章以英译汉中的常见问题为例,从句法构成关系、指代关系、暗引三方面说明了翻译不仅要讲究艺术技巧、功能、作用,而且要强调语言基本功,后者是翻译的首要条件,是避免误译的根本。     

朱查诗歌比较论

清初浙西诗坛最负盛名的两大家朱彝尊和查慎行既为乡侪,又有中表兄弟关系,但二人在诗体选择、表现方式、诗学宗派上均体现出了比较大的差异。本文对这种差异进行了比较分析,并从生平、诗学背景、审美意识三方面探讨了产生这种差异的原因。     

非个人化理论在《阿尔弗瑞德·普鲁弗洛克的情歌》中的运用

本文结合艾略特的非个人化理论,对艾略特诗作《阿尔弗瑞德·普鲁弗洛克的情歌》进行细读,通过对该诗的分析来进一步说明该理论的内涵及其在诗歌创作中的运用,论述了该诗本身的一些重要的写作手法     

Prior distributions for variance parameters in a sparse-event meta-analysis of a few small trials

In rare diseases, typically only a small number of patients are available for a randomized clinical trial. Nevertheless, it is not uncommon that more than one study is performed to evaluate a (new) treatment. Scarcity of available evidence makes it particularly valuable to pool the data in a meta-analysis. When the primary outcome is binary, the small sample sizes increase the chance of observing zero events. The frequentist random-effects model is known to induce bias and to result in improper interval estimation of the overall treatment effect in a meta-analysis with zero events. Bayesian hierarchical modeling could be a promising alternative. Bayesian models are known for being sensitive to the choice of prior distributions for between-study variance (heterogeneity) in sparse settings. In a rare disease setting, only limited data will be available to base the prior on, therefore, robustness of estimation is desirable. We performed an extensive and diverse simulation study, aiming to provide practitioners with advice on the choice of a sufficiently robust prior distribution shape for the heterogeneity parameter. Our results show that priors that place some concentrated mass on small τ values but do not restrict the density for example, the Uniform(−10, 10) heterogeneity prior on the log(τ²) scale, show robust 95% coverage combined with less overestimation of the overall treatment effect, across varying degrees of heterogeneity. We illustrate the results with meta-analyzes of a few small trials.     

Cross cultural differences in decisions from experience: Evidence from Denmark,Israel, and Taiwan

Three studies are presented that compare decisions from experience in Denmark, Israel, and Taiwan. They focus on two change-related cultural differences suggested by previous research on dialectical vs. analytic approach to thinking. The first implies that East Asians are more likely to change their behavior over time (i.e., are less consistent), the second that they expect more changes in the environment. The results show that the “less consistency in the East” hypothesis has a high predictive value. This hypothesis accurately predicts a behavioral pattern that was documented in all three studies, as well as a non-trivial effect of limited feedback in Study 3: When feedback was limited to the obtained payoff, the participants from Taiwan exhibited less risk aversion than the Israeli. Analysis of the “expecting more changes in the East” hypothesis reveals mixed results. This hypothesis was supported in Study 2, which examined relatively complex multi-alternative multi-outcome tasks, but not in Studies 1 and 3, which examined simple two-alternative two-outcome choice tasks. A possible explanation for the different predictive value of the two examined hypotheses is discussed.