On the Size Distribution of Macroeconomic Disasters

The coefficient of relative risk aversion is a key parameter for analyses of behavior toward risk, but good estimates of this parameter do not exist. A promising place for reliable estimation is rare macroeconomic disasters, which have a major influence on the equity premium. The premium depends on the probability and size distribution of disasters, gauged by proportionate declines in per capita consumption or gross domestic product. Long‐term national‐accounts data for 36 countries provide a large sample of disasters of magnitude 10% or more. A power‐law density provides a good fit to the size distribution, and the upper‐tail exponent, α, is estimated to be around 4. A higher α signifies a thinner tail and, therefore, a lower equity premium, whereas a higher coefficient of relative risk aversion, γ, implies a higher premium. The premium is finite if α > γ. The observed premium of 5% generates an estimated γ close to 3, with a 95% confidence interval of 2 to 4. The results are robust to uncertainty about the values of the disaster probability and the equity premium, and can accommodate seemingly paradoxical situations in which the equity premium may appear to be infinite.     

中药溶液在输尿管路流动中减阻特性的实验研究

本文根据人体泌尿系统的尿液流动特征，建立了管路流体阻力特性测试实验台，在进行清水溶液阻力特性标定实验以及盐水溶液流动阻力实验测试的基础上，对临床上用于治疗泌尿系统疾病的部分中药单剂和复方进行了实验研究，发现了能改善流动特性，大大降低流动阻力的药物．     

幽门螺杆菌cag致病岛基因与胃部相关疾病关系的研究

采用特异性引物,使用PE公司生产的9600型PCR仪分别扩增了临床分离的66株幽门螺杆菌(Helicobactorpylori)的cagA的298bp片段、cag致病岛的cag 中的170bp和cag 中的597bp片段,对H.pylori中cag致病岛各片段的存在状况与胃部相关疾病的关系进行了探讨.结果表明,cagA,cag ,cag 在胃炎、消化性溃疡和胃癌三组疾病间的检出差异无显著性(p>0.05).cag致病岛的完整状态在上述疾病中差异显著(p<0.05).说明cagA,cag ,cag 的存在或缺失与疾病的相关性并不显著;cag致病岛的完整状态与疾病的类型相关,且随疾病严重程度的增大其完整性降低.     

Quantification of the Genetic Risk of Environmental Mutagens

Screening methods are used for hazard identification. Assays for heritable mutations in mammals are used for the confirmation of short-term test results and for the quantification of the genetic risk. There are two main approaches in making genetic risk estimates. One of these, termed the direct method, expresses risk in terms of the expected frequency of genetic changes induced per unit dose. The other, referred to as the doubling dose method or the indirect method, expresses risk in relation to the observed incidence of genetic disorders now present in man. The indirect method uses experimental data only for the calculation of the doubling dose. The quality of the risk estimation depends on the assumption of persistence of the induced mutations and the ability to determine the current incidence of genetic diseases. The difficulties of improving the estimates of current incidences of genetic diseases or the persistence of the genes in the population led us to the development of an alternative method, the direct estimation of the genetic risk. The direct estimation uses experimental data for the induced frequency for dominant mutations in mice. For the verification of these quantifications one can use the data of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. According to the estimation with the direct method, one would expect less than 1 radiation-induced dominant cataract in 19,000 children with one or both parents exposed. The expected overall frequency of dominant mutations in the first generation would be 20-25, based on radiation-induced dominant cataract mutations. It is estimated that 10 times more recessive than dominant mutations are induced. The same approaches can be used to determine the impact of chemical mutagens.     

在BX型中温变换催化剂上CO变换反应本征动力学的研究

本文采用常压等温直流积分反应器，研究在ＢＸ型中温变换催化剂上ＣＯ变换反应的本征动力学。应用正交实验设计方法，模拟生产条件进行测试，用非线性最小二乘法优化参数估值，获得本征动力学模型。并经Ｆ检验，相关指数检验及应用此数学模型进行某工厂变换炉催化剂用量的计算，证明了实验数据及数学模型的准确性。     

大数据在重大流行病疫情防控中的应用及展望

重大流行病疫情都具备范围广、跨区域、全社会、全球性等重要特征,流行病疫情的全要素、全过程管理可以充分发挥现代大数据数字技术功能。以新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的全生命周期管理为例,论述了大数据在支持临床诊疗持续改进、支持病毒溯源与分析、支撑流行病学调查与诊断、精准监测和研判疫情、有效排查疫情、远程医疗诊疗、准确预警疫情等疫情防控全过程中的应用,提出了大数据助力疫情期形势综合研判、构建适应于国家到社区“六级”联防控体管理决策系统、疫情期间科学化和精准化社会治理、AI智能创新医疗产品、智慧医疗行业和疫情后期社会经济恢复与发展方面的创新和应用,分析大数据在重大疫情防控应用方面存在的数据准确性、数据割裂、数据公开与隐私保护不足等问题。     

Approaches to sample size calculation for clinical trials in rare diseases

We discuss 3 alternative approaches to sample size calculation: traditional sample size calculation based on power to show a statistically significant effect, sample size calculation based on assurance, and sample size based on a decision‐theoretic approach. These approaches are compared head‐to‐head for clinical trial situations in rare diseases. Specifically, we consider 3 case studies of rare diseases (Lyell disease, adult‐onset Still disease, and cystic fibrosis) with the aim to plan the sample size for an upcoming clinical trial. We outline in detail the reasonable choice of parameters for these approaches for each of the 3 case studies and calculate sample sizes. We stress that the influence of the input parameters needs to be investigated in all approaches and recommend investigating different sample size approaches before deciding finally on the trial size. Highly influencing for the sample size are choice of treatment effect parameter in all approaches and the parameter for the additional cost of the new treatment in the decision‐theoretic approach. These should therefore be discussed extensively.     

吉林省长春、四平两地老年人健康影响因素比较及对策

为了解长春、四平两地老年人的健康状况及其影响因素,采用现场体检及问卷调查的方式,对长春和四平地区1 946位老年人健康现状进行调查。发现两地老年人健康状况存在明显差异,四平市老年人慢性病患病率较高,患病率位于前三位的分别为心脏病、高血压、糖尿病。老年健康影响因素包括吸烟、饮酒、饮食、睡眠、锻炼身体等。根据两地老年人的特点,提出实现健康老龄化的具体对策。     

稀土出口政策制定中博弈论计算应用研究

相对而言,我国具有稀土出口优势。但是,由于稀土行业发展尚处于初期阶段,无论是产业政策,还是资源消耗都存在一定的问题导致我国稀土资源优势下降。文章首先对当前稀土出口存在的问题进行阐述,然后,基于博弈论理论探索稀土出口贸易政策的优化,最后,对中美、中日就稀土出口问题的博弈模型进行定量分析,从而探索有效的稀土出口政策优化途径。     

元曲研究失落的两部珍贵域外文献——对《朴通事谚解》与《老乞大谚解》的几点认识

关于《朴通事谚解》与《老乞大谚解》的编著年代 ,据朝鲜李朝《世宗实录》与《成宗实录》记述 ,“此乃元朝时语也” ,由当时的朝鲜译官编定。二书中有不少可资元曲研究借鉴的珍贵材料。在曲学语言学方面 ,以前的元曲释词著作都未见引据二书。如对“丽春院”等词语的解释均有极高的参证价值。此外 ,对儿化音的描述也可补《中原音韵》之缺。关于元曲形式内容方面的资料 ,如二书多处记述了唱曲、弹弦子的情况 ,特别是所记交“五个钱”入构栏看“诸般唱词” ,对于研究金元演艺的发展 ,弥足珍贵。元曲多写田园山水风光 ,表现避世隐逸的倾向 ,过去总以为是元代士子受压迫、无出路所致。《朴》书会话中也多有此种内容 ,与元曲精神一致 ,看来是一个普遍的社会审美思潮 ,有待作出更切实际的解释