稀土元素Ce对Al－Mg－Si变形铝合金铸态组织的影响及机理探讨

改变Ａｌ－Ｍｇ－ｓｉ合金中稀土Ｃｅ的含量，采用金相显微观察，电镜分析等方法，研究稀土元素Ｃｅ对Ａ１－Ｍｇ－Ｓｉ合金铸态组织的影响。结果表明：稀土元素Ｃｅ使晶粒细化，并有效地减小铸态组织的二次枝晶间距。其作用机理是凝固时Ｃｅ与某些元素反应产物可以作为ａ相结晶的晶核，使晶粒细化，并且Ｃｅ与Ｆｅ、Ｓｉ等元素富集在结晶前沿的液相中，造成成份过冷，促进分枝。     

师专女生常见生理心理疾病探讨

本文对师专女生常见生理心理疾病作了归纳及病因分析，提出了预防矫治的方法和措施，对保护、促进女生身心健康，培养合格的师资人才，具有一定的积极意义．     

皇家宫苑赏石文化流变研究

中国赏石文化内容丰富且历史悠久。赏石文化就是积淀在赏石中的文化现象 ,是人与自然相互协调、和谐统一的系统。自汉代在宫苑中已有赏石叠置 ,到南朝山水文化繁荣 ,经隋唐尤其是宋代以来赏石经历代王朝收藏、搬运、配置 ,至清乾隆时期 ,皇家赏石文化随宫苑变迁而消长流变 ,达到极高水平。这一流变脉络值得梳理研究。     

Modelling small and medium enterprise loan defaults as rare events: the generalized extreme value regression model

A pivotal characteristic of credit defaults that is ignored by most credit scoring models is the rarity of the event. The most widely used model to estimate the probability of default is the logistic regression model. Since the dependent variable represents a rare event, the logistic regression model shows relevant drawbacks, for example, underestimation of the default probability, which could be very risky for banks. In order to overcome these drawbacks, we propose the generalized extreme value regression model. In particular, in a generalized linear model (GLM) with the binary-dependent variable we suggest the quantile function of the GEV distribution as link function, so our attention is focused on the tail of the response curve for values close to one. The estimation procedure used is the maximum-likelihood method. This model accommodates skewness and it presents a generalisation of GLMs with complementary log–log link function. We analyse its performance by simulation studies. Finally, we apply the proposed model to empirical data on Italian small and medium enterprises.     

Trends in cardiovascular diseases and associated risks in sub-Saharan Africa: a review of the evidence for Ghana,Nigeria, South Africa,Sudan and Tanzania

Background: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries are facing an epidemiological shift from infectious disease to chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). CVDs incidence in SSA are frequently attributed to the prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, and overweight/obesity. Nevertheless, some researchers contend that CVDs are not a priority public health problem in SSA.

Method: This paper systematically reviews the evidence on CVDs and their relation with hypertension, diabetes mellitus and obesity/overweight in Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Sudan and Tanzania. The publication’s content was analyzed qualitatively using the directed content analysis method and the results were presented in a tabular format.

Result: The paper illustrates the rising prevalence of CVDs as well as the three related risk conditions in the selected SSA countries.

Conclusion: The review indicates a poor health system response to the increasing risk of CVDs in SSA. The conditions and major drivers that contribute to this underlying increasing trend need to be further studied.     

Response-adaptive trial designs with accelerated Thompson sampling

In a clinical trial, sometimes it is desirable to allocate as many patients as possible to the best treatment, in particular, when a trial for a rare disease may contain a considerable portion of the whole target population. The Gittins index rule is a powerful tool for sequentially allocating patients to the best treatment based on the responses of patients already treated. However, its application in clinical trials is limited due to technical complexity and lack of randomness. Thompson sampling is an appealing approach, since it makes a compromise between optimal treatment allocation and randomness with some desirable optimal properties in the machine learning context. However, in clinical trial settings, multiple simulation studies have shown disappointing results with Thompson samplers. We consider how to improve short-run performance of Thompson sampling and propose a novel acceleration approach. This approach can also be applied to situations when patients can only be allocated by batch and is very easy to implement without using complex algorithms. A simulation study showed that this approach could improve the performance of Thompson sampling in terms of average total response rate. An application to a redesign of a preference trial to maximize patient's satisfaction is also presented.     

Interstitial Lung Diseases in the U.S. Mining Industry: Using MSHA Data to Examine Trends and the Prevention Effects of Compliance with Health Regulations, 1996–2015

Given the recent increase in dust‐induced lung disease among U.S. coal miners and the respiratory hazards encountered across the U.S. mining industry, it is important to enhance an understanding of lung disease trends and the organizational contexts that precede these events. In addition to exploring overall trends reported to the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), the current study uses MSHA's enforcement database to examine whether or not compliance with health regulations resulted in fewer mine‐level counts of these diseases over time. The findings suggest that interstitial lung diseases were more prevalent in coal mines compared to other mining commodities, in Appalachian coal mines compared to the rest of the United States, and in underground compared to surface coal mines. Mines that followed a relevant subset of MSHA's health regulations were less likely to report a lung disease over time. The findings are discussed from a lung disease prevention strategy perspective.     

某综合医院慢性病患者住院费用构成及影响因素分析

目的：分析慢性病患者住院费用及其影响因素,为控制慢性病住院费用提供依据。方法：收集安徽省某综合医院2014年全年慢性病住院患者病案信息,对患者的住院费用及其影响因素进行统计分析。结果：慢性病患者的次均住院费用、药品费用、检查费用、化验费用分别为8 207.5元、3 442.5元、1 275.0元、1 057.5元;高血压、糖尿病、椎间盘疾病患者的次均住院费用分别为5 929.2元、10 384.1元、8 900.2元,其中药品费用占住院费用的比重依次为33.9%、47.4%、34.9%;住院天数与住院费用之间存在正相关;年龄、住院天数和疾病类型是住院费用的影响因素。结论：慢性病患者住院费用较高,经济负担较重;糖尿病患者住院费用最高,药品费用占比最大;椎间盘疾病患者住院天数最长;老年人为慢性病高危人群。     

中国大都市发展与治理研究

联合国人口状况报告显示,世界城市化速度不断加快,突出表现为城市居民数量持续增长、特大城市数量增多且规模庞大。回顾中国城市化历程,起步晚发展快,并已进入最快的发展阶段,城市规模也不断扩展,呈现出大城市快速增加、Ⅱ型小城市减少,同时长三角、珠三角、京津冀等大都市圈高速发展的显著特点。以巨型工商城市为中心的城市群已成为国家经济增长的引擎,随之而来的"城市病"(环境污染、人口分布不均、资源紧张、人口老龄化、家庭空巢化、社会治安管理难、交通拥堵、房价飞涨等等)对公共管理和政策研究提出了挑战。从政府管理向社会治理理念的转变,已成为世界大都市研究的新思路。梳理国内外社会治理研究的学术成果,为中国的大都市治理提出政策建议:充分借鉴国际上大都市治理的优秀成果,科学研究、综合治理、改善城市规划,利用大数据挖掘等现代科技手段把大都市治理及其研究推向一个新高度。     

南京市高淳区卫生服务团队的实践与思考

目的：对高淳区3年多来的团队服务进行分析总结,了解目前工作现状,及时总结经验。方法：制定问卷对卫生服务团队实施情况进行调查,收集有关数据和文件资料,选取熟悉该项工作的3位卫生院院长进行深入访谈。结果：高淳区所开展的团队服务在健康教育、慢性病规范管理、公共卫生服务等方面取得了一定效果,并促进了居民对于基层医疗服务的利用。医务人员尚未转变的服务理念,人才缺失以及保障和激励措施的不完善是开展团队服务的主要障碍因素。结论：乡镇卫生院和当地卫生部门需加强医务人员的服务理念转变,充实基层人才队伍,落实团队服务的保障和激励机制。