Underprotection of Unpredictable Statistical Lives Compared to Predictable Ones

Existing ethical discussion considers the differences in care for identified versus statistical lives. However, there has been little attention to the different degrees of care that are taken for different kinds of statistical lives. Here we argue that for a given number of statistical lives at stake, there will sometimes be different, and usually greater, care taken to protect predictable statistical lives, in which the number of lives that will be lost can be predicted fairly accurately, than for unpredictable statistical lives, where the lives are at stake because of a low‐probability event, such that most likely no one will be affected by the decision but with low probability some lives will be at stake. One reason for this difference is the statistical challenge of estimating low probabilities, and in particular the tendency of common approaches to underestimate these probabilities. Another is the existence of rational incentives to treat unpredictable risks as if the probabilities were lower than they are. Some of these factors apply outside the pure economic context, to institutions, individuals, and governments. We argue that there is no ethical reason to treat unpredictable statistical lives differently from predictable statistical lives. Moreover, lives that are unpredictable from the perspective of an individual agent may become predictable when aggregated to the level of a societal decision. Underprotection of unpredictable statistical lives is a form of market failure that may need to be corrected by altering regulation, introducing compulsory liability insurance, or other social policies.     

Prior distributions for variance parameters in a sparse-event meta-analysis of a few small trials

In rare diseases, typically only a small number of patients are available for a randomized clinical trial. Nevertheless, it is not uncommon that more than one study is performed to evaluate a (new) treatment. Scarcity of available evidence makes it particularly valuable to pool the data in a meta-analysis. When the primary outcome is binary, the small sample sizes increase the chance of observing zero events. The frequentist random-effects model is known to induce bias and to result in improper interval estimation of the overall treatment effect in a meta-analysis with zero events. Bayesian hierarchical modeling could be a promising alternative. Bayesian models are known for being sensitive to the choice of prior distributions for between-study variance (heterogeneity) in sparse settings. In a rare disease setting, only limited data will be available to base the prior on, therefore, robustness of estimation is desirable. We performed an extensive and diverse simulation study, aiming to provide practitioners with advice on the choice of a sufficiently robust prior distribution shape for the heterogeneity parameter. Our results show that priors that place some concentrated mass on small τ values but do not restrict the density for example, the Uniform(−10, 10) heterogeneity prior on the log(τ²) scale, show robust 95% coverage combined with less overestimation of the overall treatment effect, across varying degrees of heterogeneity. We illustrate the results with meta-analyzes of a few small trials.     

Cross cultural differences in decisions from experience: Evidence from Denmark,Israel, and Taiwan

Three studies are presented that compare decisions from experience in Denmark, Israel, and Taiwan. They focus on two change-related cultural differences suggested by previous research on dialectical vs. analytic approach to thinking. The first implies that East Asians are more likely to change their behavior over time (i.e., are less consistent), the second that they expect more changes in the environment. The results show that the “less consistency in the East” hypothesis has a high predictive value. This hypothesis accurately predicts a behavioral pattern that was documented in all three studies, as well as a non-trivial effect of limited feedback in Study 3: When feedback was limited to the obtained payoff, the participants from Taiwan exhibited less risk aversion than the Israeli. Analysis of the “expecting more changes in the East” hypothesis reveals mixed results. This hypothesis was supported in Study 2, which examined relatively complex multi-alternative multi-outcome tasks, but not in Studies 1 and 3, which examined simple two-alternative two-outcome choice tasks. A possible explanation for the different predictive value of the two examined hypotheses is discussed.     

怒江傈僳族女性的婚姻家庭角色变迁

历史上的傈僳族女性,曾经是随夫同上战场的女英雄,是氏族械斗中的调停者,在生产生活中也承担着家庭食物供给的重要角色,但在传统社会中,女性仍被作为家族的财产在婚姻关系的缔结中从父家转移至夫家,其婚姻自主性和家庭中的自我意识并未得到社会相应的认同。如今,社会的发展使傈僳族的生活方式和传统婚姻市场发生了改变,女性在变迁中以主动顺应之态,积极利用自身在婚姻关系中"稀缺资源"的优势,获得了婚姻和个人发展的自主权。傈僳族女性的这一转变对整个族群的婚姻家庭观念产生了潜移默化的影响。     

Time series modelling of childhood diseases: a dynamical systems approach

A key issue in the dynamical modelling of epidemics is the synthesis of complex mathematical models and data by means of time series analysis. We report such an approach, focusing on the particularly well-documented case of measles. We propose the use of a discrete time epidemic model comprising the infected and susceptible class as state variables. The model uses a discrete time version of the susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered type epidemic models, which can be fitted to observed disease incidence time series. We describe a method for reconstructing the dynamics of the susceptible class, which is an unobserved state variable of the dynamical system. The model provides a remarkable fit to the data on case reports of measles in England and Wales from 1944 to 1964. Morever, its systematic part explains the well-documented predominant biennial cyclic pattern. We study the dynamic behaviour of the time series model and show that episodes of annual cyclicity, which have not previously been explained quantitatively, arise as a response to a quicker replenishment of the susceptible class during the baby boom, around 1947.     

朔黄重载铁路路基病害的分类及其成灾机理研究

在大量路基病害相关文献的查阅、分析整理的基础上，结合朔黄重载铁路路基病害现场调查数据，对其存在的主要路基病害进行了分类，并对各类病害的一般特征和表现形式、产生条件及成灾机理进行了系统分析，为既有重载铁路路基病害的预防和整治措施提供理论依据和参考。     

试述中国传统医学中的"身心互动"理论

中国传统医学中有关“身心互动”的理论强调身心的相互作用。其中 ,身心互动的生理学过程显示 ,身体的脏腑功能、血脉运行对于情绪、意识和精神活动起到物质基础的作用 ,而情绪、性格、人生态度和信念影响人的躯体易感性和身体健康。身心互动的失调可以导致各种身心疾病 ,因此 ,中医的治疗思想主张整体论治。“身心互动”理论对于当今维护国人身心健康具有重要的意义     

出生缺陷疾病经济负担估算的人口学模型构建

在分析出生缺陷疾病的经济负担时,由于疾病的特殊性(如发病早、可能持续终身、早期死亡比较常见、二胎补偿等),需要注意与以往估算一般疾病经济负担模型不同的几个问题。主要有:相对经济负担和绝对经济负担的区别、估算起始点的确定、参照人群的选择。综合特点和问题,构建出生缺陷疾病经济负担估算的人口学模型,利用生命表原理,考虑了相对一般人群的经济负担、估算起始点提前至胚胎期、考虑人生中家庭的投入和产出等因素,为出生缺陷疾病的终身经济负担估算提供思路。     

上消化道疾病人工智能辅助决策方法研究

在基于电子胃镜影像的上消化道疾病智能辅助决策过程中,现有的方法较少涉及胃镜图像的可疑病灶定位和细粒度分类,且服务延迟较高。此外,这类方法所采用的传统数据扩充方法更进一步的降低了辅助决策方法的实际性能。因此本文提出了基于电子胃镜影像的上消化道疾病智能辅助诊断框架,首先使用条件对抗生成网络实现原始胃镜图像数据增强,然后设计k-Lconv模块,在此基础上开发上消化道病灶检测方法Lconv-YOLO,并利用来自某三甲医院真实的临床数据进行方法验证。实验结果表明,相比同类方法,本方法能够有效提高上消化道疾病推断的平均精度和病灶定位精度。本方法将平均检测一帧胃镜视频的时间缩短至6.73ms,敏感性和特异性分别达到79.39%和87.94%。满足电子胃镜检查过程中的视频帧实时高精度辅助诊断决策。     

Differences in Risky Sexual Behavior According to Sexual Orientation in Korean Adolescents

Adolescents in sexual minority groups are known to be at risk of contracting sexually transmitted diseases through risky sexual behavior. However, few studies have examined associations between sexual orientation and risky sexual behavior and sexually transmitted diseases in Korean adolescents. Therefore, this cross-sectional study used raw data from the Tenth Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-Based Survey to explore these relationships. Logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the associations between risky sexual behavior and sexual orientation in adolescents. The participants were 6,884 adolescents who provided data regarding demographic characteristics, sexual orientation, and risky sexual behavior. The proportions of homosexual and bisexual subjects who used condoms, engaged in sexual intercourse after drinking alcohol, and experienced sexually transmitted diseases were higher relative to those of heterosexual subjects. Associations between homosexuality and bisexuality and sexually transmitted diseases and engagement in sexual intercourse after drinking remained after multivariate adjustment. Interventions to prevent risky sexual behavior should target sexual orientation, to improve sexual health and prevent sexually transmitted disease in homosexual and bisexual adolescents.