科学发展观与行政法理性

科学发展观的核心与灵魂是以人为本。科学发展观为法学研究提出了新要求、新课题，科学发展观体现了重要的行政法哲学价值观和方法论，即行政法“人本法律价值观”和行政法“全面、协调、可持续”方法论。科学发展观为评价行政法理性提供了标准和对象，为实现行政法理性运行提供了保障机制。     

论公共行政中的个人伦理自主性

人们通常将政府的腐败与低效归结为官僚机构中的个人的不道德。研究表明,尽管理性人追求自身的利益,但他也会受到良心的约束,其行为的道德属性很大程度上跟他所处的环境有关。官僚体制造成个人对组织机构的绝对依附和个人责任感的丧失,对官员的伦理自主性产生影响。而要提高个人的伦理自主性,不仅在于制度安排的合理性,而且在于个人自身伦理意识的加强。     

Some Limitations of “Risk = Threat × Vulnerability × Consequence” for Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attacks

Several important risk analysis methods now used in setting priorities for protecting U.S. infrastructures against terrorist attacks are based on the formula: Risk=Threat×Vulnerability×Consequence. This article identifies potential limitations in such methods that can undermine their ability to guide resource allocations to effectively optimize risk reductions. After considering specific examples for the Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP?) framework used by the Department of Homeland Security, we address more fundamental limitations of the product formula. These include its failure to adjust for correlations among its components, nonadditivity of risks estimated using the formula, inability to use risk‐scoring results to optimally allocate defensive resources, and intrinsic subjectivity and ambiguity of Threat, Vulnerability, and Consequence numbers. Trying to directly assess probabilities for the actions of intelligent antagonists instead of modeling how they adaptively pursue their goals in light of available information and experience can produce ambiguous or mistaken risk estimates. Recent work demonstrates that two‐level (or few‐level) hierarchical optimization models can provide a useful alternative to Risk=Threat×Vulnerability×Consequence scoring rules, and also to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques that ignore rational planning and adaptation. In such two‐level optimization models, defender predicts attacker's best response to defender's own actions, and then chooses his or her own actions taking into account these best responses. Such models appear valuable as practical approaches to antiterrorism risk analysis.     

Instability and Convergence Under Simple-Majority Rule: Results from Simulation of Committee Choice in Two-Dimensional Space

Nondeterministic models of collective choice posit convergence among the outcomes of simple-majority decisions. The object of this research is to estimate the extent of convergence of majority choice under different procedural conditions. The paper reports results from a computer simulation of simple-majority decision making by committees. Simulation experiments generate distributions of majority-adopted proposals in two-dimensional space. These represent nondeterministic outcomes of majority choice by committees. The proposal distributions provide data for a quantitative evaluation of committee-choice procedures in respect to outcome convergence. Experiments were run under general conditions, and under conditions that restrict committee choice to several game-theoretic solution sets. The findings are that, compared to distributions of voter ideal points, majority-adopted proposals confined to the solution sets demonstrate different degrees of convergence. Second, endogenous agenda formation is a more important obstacle to convergence than the inherent instability of simple-majority rule. Third, if members maximize preferences in respect to agenda formation, a committee choice that approximates the central tendency of the distribution of voter preferences is unlikely. The conclusion is that the most effective way to increase the convergence of majority choice is to restrict the role of individual preferences in agenda formation: identification of proposals to be voted up or down by a committee. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

零翻译词的形态及应用理据

零翻译词就是用目的语中非现成的词语把源语中的新词语翻译过来的词语。零翻译词主要有5种形态:1）纯粹零翻译词、2）音译零翻译词、3）音意结合型零翻译词、4）形译零翻译词、5）新造词。零翻译词在语义、形式、使用及传播方面存在坚实的理据。在新词语翻译和使用实践中,人们应该解放思想,大胆地、深入地、多层面地探讨零翻译词的翻译和使用方法。      

在Kalman-Bucy滤波学习过程下的投资者生存能力分析

本文在投资者非完全理性框架下,基于Kalman-Bucy滤波学习过程给出了投资者理性和自信程度的定义,并基于此分析了不同投资者在市场中的生存和影响能力,并为实际市场中多类投资者共存的现象从学习过程的角度给予解释。研究结果表明,投资者在市场中的生存能力受其在学习过程中的理性和自信程度的双重影响。理性和自信程度都较高的投资者对市场把握较好,较容易在市场中生存,并对市场具有较大的影响。如果理性程度较高的投资者不自信,而理性程度不高的投资者自信度较高,那么在这种情况下没有哪类投资者对市场的把握相对准确,也就是说没有哪类投资者能将其他投资者逐出市场,即多类投资者共存于市场中。     

基于不同支付方式的线上企业库存与定价策略研究

复杂的网购环境,频发的网购事故,严重影响顾客的网购意图;货到付款支付方式所隐含的保险机制能够刺激潜在需求,但可能提高退货率,增加线上企业的经营成本。如何有效权衡利弊,制定不同支付方式下的最优经营决策是线上企业必须的核心问题。利用理性预期均衡的相关知识,考虑网上预付和双模式（同时提供网上预付和货到付款）两类支付方式下顾客的购买与退货行为,研究线上企业的最优价格和库存决策。结果表明：1）零售价格在网上预付方式下比双模式下更高;2）双模式中顾客全部选择网上预付时,两类模式的相对优劣依赖企业单位营业收入以及潜在市场需求;双模式中顾客全部选择货到付款时,两类模式的相对优劣则只取决于潜在市场需求;3）双模式中全部顾客选择网上预付比选择货到付款时企业利润更高,但都小于双模式中企业的利润最大值,且该利润最大值随市场结构的变化而改变。     

一类有理递归序列2周期解的存在性及全局性态研究

研究了一类非线性差分方程,得到了其存在周期为2的解的充分条件以及满足一定条件下所有正解的全局吸引性的充分条件.     

文化女性主义法学述评

文化女性主义法学以＂关系网络结构中的人＂为其理论预设。在此基础上,该理论强调了女性特征与法律制度之间的关系,重新界定了政府与个人的关系,论证了法律制度给予女性特殊保护的必要性。这些独特的观点的最直接理论依据来自于心理学的研究成果,文化女性主义法学将其具体运用于对各种法律制度的分析之中。该学派值得认真关注和研究,因为该学派带来了一种不同的思维方式,解构了现代法学的理论根基,并提出了解构之后的建构之路。     

论道德运气

威廉姆斯将道德与运气并置,构成道德运气这个在他看来自相矛盾的修辞,意在揭示道德免于运气的努力不可能成功。内格尔则在此启发之下着力探讨运气对道德的深刻影响,将道德运气理解为一个可以揭示道德评价之悖论性质的概念。如果说内格尔通过分析运气对道德的具体影响,给我们提供了一幅道德行为完全处于运气之包围和渗透中的生动画面,那么,威廉姆斯则通过展示运气的体验在人类伦理生活中的重要性,而从根本处撼动了道德的基础。