人文主义文学与理性自觉

近代理性精神是从文艺复兴时期人们从宗教禁欲主义思想禁锢中解放出来,开始以人权对抗神权时萌芽的。随着新兴的资产阶级的成长和发展,这种理性精神也在逐渐地从自发走向自觉。但它从产生时起就具有自身的悖论:第一,它是伴随着人性的发现而产生,因而就不可避免和人的自然情欲相连;第二,它表现出了对于知识的过分信赖,进而演化成技术理性统治一切、抹杀了人的完整统一性;第三,它带来了个性主体的过分膨胀。     

An alternative to model selection in ordinary regression

The weaknesses of established model selection procedures based on hypothesis testing and similar criteria are discussed and an alternative based on synthetic (composite) estimation is proposed. It is developed for the problem of prediction in ordinary regression and its properties are explored by simulations for the simple regression. Extensions to a general setting are described and an example with multiple regression is analysed. Arguments are presented against using a selected model for any inferences.     

鲁迅与余华创作母题之比较

鲁迅作为二十世纪初中国现代文学的开创者和奠基者,其创作影响了以后中国很多作家。余华被认为是当代与鲁迅精神相接近的一位年轻作家。本文试图从创作母题的角度对两位作家进行比较,从他们的相同与相异中探寻作家与作家之间的距离,以及时代文化变迁在作家身上潜移默化的影响。     

Improved model selection criteria for SETAR time series models

The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, we obtain the asymptotic properties of the modified model selection criteria proposed by Hurvich et al. (1990. Improved estimators of Kullback-Leibler information for autoregressive model selection in small samples. Biometrika 77, 709–719) for autoregressive models. Second, we provide some highlights on the better performance of this modified criteria. Third, we extend the modification introduced by these authors to model selection criteria commonly used in the class of self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) time series models. We show the improvements of the modified criteria in their finite sample performance. In particular, for small and medium sample size the frequency of selecting the true model improves for the consistent criteria and the root mean square error (RMSE) of prediction improves for the efficient criteria. These results are illustrated via simulation with SETAR models in which we assume that the threshold and the parameters are unknown.     

基于旅西日本游客旅游选择行为的西安旅游市场分析

根据在全国六大旅游热点城市所做的旅游市场调查的数据结果，对旅西日本游客的旅游选择行为进行了研究，同时进一步有针对性地对西安日本客源市场进行了SWOT分析，在此基础上，对西安旅游业的发展提出了相关对策建议。     

基于TOPSIS理论的企业供应商选择应用

供应链管理已经成为企业获取竞争优势的手段,供应商选择是企业构建供应链体系的重要内容。TOPSIS是一种简单易行的多因素选优的理论方法,它利用熵来确定评价指标的权重,避免了在确定评价指标权重时主观因素的影响,为公司的供应商选择提供了一种科学、量化、高效的手段。文章回顾了供应商选择的理论现状,介绍了TOPSIS理论模型和利用它进行供应商选择的步骤,通过对典型企业的深入调研,阐述了该企业如何应用TOPSIS进行供应商选择。     

试论研究生数学素养与创新能力

研究生学习与本科生学习的主要区别在于科研与创新。科研的实质在于创新,数学素养和数学能力对于创新意识和创新能力的获得至关重要。就数学理性思维在创新活动中的作用,数学作为工具其先进性对论文前瞻性的影响,数学与其它学科的融合及边缘学科的产生和发展,数学的抽象美感与应用专业的和谐等角度进行分析,论述数学对于研究生学位论文层次及创造性思维活动能力的深刻影响。     

利用光敏核不育性进行水稻轮回选择的程序探讨

本文对利用光敏核不育性进行水稻轮回选择进行了探讨。提出基本轮回选择方案和综合轮回选择方案。基本轮回选择方案是以一个光敏核不育材料为母本与多个亲本组配构成轮回选择的综合群体,而其后按常规轮回选择法进行育种的方案。综合轮回选择方案是以两个或两个以上的光敏核不育材料作为母体与多个亲本组配,在 F_2代群体中不同质源的优良植株相互交配构成综合群体,其后按基本方案进行的轮回选择。     

东盟政策机制中的政策网络

政策网络是政策机制的重要组成部分,东盟政策网络的结构和运作是其政治精英理性选择的结果,目的是使这个地区政策网络能满足一体化政策领域扩展的需要,并实现区域一体化进程中各成员国的利益最大化。     

A subjectivist approach to consecutive conflict

An easily applied approach is developed to provide one participant in a sequence of conflicts with an optimal strategy. A goal of this article is to demonstrate that it is mathematically feasible to incorporate a decision maker's subjective distributions over the effects his actions will have on the outcomes of future conflicts. Unlike many other approaches, the model of this article does not restrict the beliefs that the participant is allowed to express. The participant, not the decision theorist, decides on what is relevent. Model assumptions required for updating rules, such as Bayesian updating, are not required unless they really are appropriate for the situation.Thanks are due to J. B. Kadane for suggesting the problem and for many helpful discussions.