影响中国投资乘数效率发挥的因素分析

财政政策实施集中体现了政策是在政府操纵下的一种公共行为,能够直接和间接地改变人们的利益结构,引起社会利益结构的变迁和行为的转变,并影响其他经济主体行为的政策选择。而投资乘数的存在,是宏观财政政策选择的重要依据,也是财政政策发挥程度的一种检验。对影响中国投资乘数效率发挥的因素研究有利于提高我国财政政策效率。     

政府行政执法责任制度之理性分析

政府行政执法责任制度需涵容于责任政府的理念之中,应是保障政府依法行政的根本制度,实施该制度的关键在于形成责、权、利协调机制,同时在于责任意识的培育。     

Calculation of Phase 2 dose-finding study sample size for reliable Phase 3 dose selection

Sample sizes of Phase 2 dose-finding studies, usually determined based on a power requirement to detect a significant dose–response relationship, will generally not provide adequate precision for Phase 3 target dose selection. We propose to calculate the sample size of a dose-finding study based on the probability of successfully identifying the target dose within an acceptable range (e.g., 80%–120% of the target) using the multiple comparison and modeling procedure (MCP-Mod). With the proposed approach, different design options for the Phase 2 dose-finding study can also be compared. Due to inherent uncertainty around an assumed true dose–response relationship, sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the sample size calculations to deviations from modeling assumptions are recommended. Planning for a hypothetical Phase 2 dose-finding study is used to illustrate the main points. Codes for the proposed approach is available at https://github.com/happysundae/posMCPMod .     

亲缘选择能否印证《孟子》之四端说

亲缘选择是一条影响深远的自然法则,也是当代伦理学不得不面对的重要课题。中外学界对亲缘选择与孟子学说的关联均有所关注,也有学者认为亲缘选择能为孟子学说提供强有力的支持。四端说是孟子伦理学体系的核心,故此可设如下的议题：亲缘选择能否印证《孟子》之四端说？根据《孟子》四端说的文本以及历代解读的分析,所得结论是：亲缘选择不止对四端说起不到印证作用,而更迫使当代诠释者对于许多四端说的解读,降低其置信度。与亲缘选择相符的四端说解读,应该重视文化的熏陶作用,应该承认四端为人禽共有,也不该将四端设为纯粹形上对象。亲缘选择对孟子学说的印证效能,需在四端说之外去寻找。     

基于样本外分布回测的随机过程统计推断方法

采用不同的随机过程模型描述标的资产的价格动态,会极大的影响衍生品定价和风险管理活动。在文献中,同一资产采用的随机过程往往是不一致甚至是矛盾的。本文以GBM过程与OU过程为例,提出了一种统计推断方法,旨在从多个备选模型中选出能更好的描述标的资产价格动态的随机过程。该方法应用事后检验原理,将数据分成估计窗和检验窗,估计窗用来估计随机过程的参数,然后在模型参数不变的假定下,推导了原假设成立时检验窗各个时点的资产价格的样本外分布,看实际数据落在接受域或拒绝域的频数来判断是否接受原假设。本文以大宗商品、汇率、利率、股票作为标的资产,对随机过程选择进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,一些经常使用的随机过程模型并不一定是最优的模型。     

The impact of attitudes and behavioral costs on environmental behavior: A natural experiment on household waste recycling

Numerous studies have shown the importance of incentives as well as of attitudes in explaining pro-environmental behavior. Reported attitude effects, however, are generally rather small and exhibit considerable variation among studies. Different theoretical perspectives can account for this finding: whereas theories of rational action suggest additive effects of costs and attitudes, the low-cost hypothesis and dual-process theories imply interaction effects - in different directions, resulting from different mechanisms. The present study tries to overcome the shortcomings of past research by using advanced statistical methods to test competitive hypotheses in the context of post-consumer waste recycling. We utilize data from a natural experiment on recycling participation in Cologne/Germany (n = 1882) in which the incentive structure for recycling changed due to the conversion of the recycling scheme from a drop-off system to curbside collection. In order to avoid self-selection bias, we conducted pre- and post-treatment surveys and applied conditional fixed-effects regression models. We found that curbside collection had a strong impact on recycling participation and attitudes had a moderate effect. The interaction is negative but statistically insignificant. Our findings contradict the low-cost hypothesis and provide some evidence that environmental concerns moderate the effect of the recycling scheme. We cannot, however, reject the rational choice proposition of mere additive effects.     

Early social exposure and later affiliation processes within an evolving social network

BackgroundWhile short-term experiments have found that exposure to social contacts affects likeability, this study investigates its long-term effects on friendships in an emerging network.MethodsOne hundred psychology freshmen indicated whether they attended an introductory event before the start of the academic year to assess early exposure and reported on the friendships they formed with their peers at the beginning, middle, and end of their first semester.ResultsRSiena network models revealed that students taking part in the introductory event were more likely to form friendships throughout the first semester, but less likely to keep them.DiscussionWhile early exposure to people in an emerging network might provide a head start for forming friendships for at least a semester, these friendships appear less stable than those of students who did not have that exposure.     

慈善概念的移植何以未完成:一个政策过程的分析

寻求法律移植与习俗的有机统一无疑是中国法律现代化最为重要的问题。由于缺乏微观政策过程的分析,对这一问题的探讨大多停留在宏观层面。本文从法律现代化和法律多元主义的理论视角出发,以《慈善法》中“慈善”概念的形成为例,探讨了法律移植与习俗如何通过立法体制影响法律的形成。研究发现,习俗通过回应性立法的制度安排以及立法者的双重身份被纳入到决策中。法律移植的慈善概念则通过法律专家与立法者的深度互动产生作用。然而,立法过程中提案与审议的分离以及政治官僚制的决策模式使得形式理性法律的建构面临双重消解。因此,促进立法体制的优化才能实现立法中形式理性与价值理性的有效融合。     

Negative ability bias from conditioning on a confounded mediator: A directed interaction test and case study

Sociologists increasingly recognize the problem of endogenous selection bias in mediation analysis. Building on a sub-model of Elwert and Winship (2014), we propose that a widely-overlooked endogenous selection bias exists in the form of a negative ability bias in sociological models of economic outcomes where job attributes are often included as mediators but confounded by unobserved abilities. We use simulations to show that the bias size increases with collider selectivity under common modeling assumptions, and we leverage this property to develop a directed interaction test to detect this bias. To demonstrate the principles of the test and the practical significance of the bias, we re-examine the paradox of Communist Party Premiums in post-2000 China—the sudden disappearance of income returns to Party members, as found in recent studies. The results are strikingly consistent with the hypothesis that a negative ability bias has recently overwhelmed the persistent Party premiums in China.