基于实物期权理论的矿产资源最优投资策略模型

矿产资源投资周期长、数额大、且不确定性高,应用传统的净现值方法来评估矿产资源投资价值具有很大的局限性。本文运用实物期权理论,通过建立矿产资源最优投资的策略模型,讨论了在矿产品价格以及汇率存在不确定性的情况下,如何对海外矿产资源价值进行评估的问题,并以国内某海外矿产资源项目为例,验证了模型的有效性。研究结果表明,相对于传统的净现值法,实物期权方法可以更好地考虑未来的不确定性对矿产资源项目估值的影响;汇率风险是对海外矿产资源投资的影响很大;矿产资源丰度差异对矿产资源价值的影响很大。     

国有控股、机构投资者与真实活动的盈余管理

前期基于应计项目操控的研究发现,国有控股、机构投资者有助于抑制盈余管理,从而有利于改善公司治理.目前,许多学者发现公司更倾向于实施真实活动的盈余管理,那么国有控股、机构投资者是否也有利于抑制真实活动的盈余管理?本文以中国上市公司为样本对这个问题进行了研究.结果发现,国有控股公司的真实盈余管理水平显著高于非国有公司;机构投资者能在一定程度上抑制公司的真实盈余管理行为,但国有公司的机构投资者对真实盈余管理的抑制作用显著小于非国有公司.上述结果表明,从真实盈余管理的角度来说,国有控股不利于公司治理;机构投资者能够改善公司治理,但其作用在国有公司中受到一定程度限制.本文的研究结论对已有的国有控股治理作用的文献是一个校正性的补充,对我国国有企业的治理和改革有一定程度的借鉴意义.     

我国住宅市场财富效应研究

通过对我国总体数据的实证分析发现,预期收入增长对总消费具有显著正的影响;预期住宅价格对总消费也有显著正的影响,即我国住宅市场财富效应是显著存在的。这与最近关于OECD国家住宅市场研究中的结论是相吻合的。     

技术创新战略投资的实物期权方法综述

实物期权方法比传统的折现现金流法(DCF) 更适合用来分析不确定环境下的投资决策 问题,但仅凭实物期权方法不能对不完全竞争环境下的企业战略投资问题进行准确分析和估 价. 根据是否考虑不完全竞争环境下企业投资决策间的战略互动关系,实物期权方法被分为一 般实物期权方法和战略实物期权方法. 侧重于战略实物期权方法,对企业技术创新投资的实物 期权理论模型及方法进行综述,并指出了对这类问题进一步研究的方向.     

房价变动、产业转移与区域协调发展——以京津冀地区为例

构建房价-资本模型,分析房地产行业投资收益对工业再投资的影响,发现：地区间适当的房地产行业投资收益差异有利于工业企业从核心地区向边缘地区转移,差异较大则导致资本流向房价增长过快地区的房地产行业;若地区间房地产行业投资收益差异既定,较大的经济发展差距对产业转移起阻碍作用,激烈的市场竞争则起促进作用。利用京津冀地区13个城市的数据构建面板门限模型,验证了：（1）较低的房价增长率促进了北京市相对低效的资本向外转移,但是北京市与周边地区较大的经济发展差距又阻碍了该趋势。（2）核心区流出的资本优先向次发达地区转移,而落后地区则有被彻底边缘化的风险。为实现京津冀地区协调发展,一方面要加强对京津冀地区房价的宏观调控、防止房价过快增长;另一方面要制定针对边缘地区的优惠政策,引导非首都功能向周边转移。     

Search for Yield

We present a model of the relationship between real interest rates, credit spreads, and the structure and risk of the banking system. Banks intermediate between entrepreneurs and investors, and can monitor entrepreneurs' projects. We characterize the equilibrium for a fixed aggregate supply of savings, showing that safer entrepreneurs will be funded by nonmonitoring banks and riskier entrepreneurs by monitoring banks. We show that an increase in savings reduces interest rates and spreads, and increases the relative size of the nonmonitoring banking system and the probability of failure of monitoring banks. We also show that the dynamic version of the model exhibits endogenous boom and bust cycles, and rationalizes the existence of countercyclical risk premia and the connection between low interest rates, tight credit spreads, and the buildup of risks during booms.     

社区应急疏散动态协作调度优化研究

针对灾民数量和路网通行时间的动态性以及灾民疏散反应系数的随机性,本文提出了社区应急疏散协作调度优化流程,并以疏散灾民数量最大化和疏散成本最小化为目标,构建了社区应急疏散多种运输方式协作调度优化模型,并给出了求解该模型的改进多目标遗传算法。然后,论文使用Tansmodeler模拟社区应急疏散协作调度优化过程,加载疏散灾民动态需求和历史出行时间表,并对模型和算法进行验证。结果表明,该模型和算法可以在有效刻画疏散灾民数量和路网通行时间的基础上,为不同时刻的交通工具配置及疏散路径选取提供决策。     

Exploring gaps in the online economic inclusion of persons with disabilities in Korea

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the difference in the online economic activities of people with and without disabilities in Korea. We conducted a multiple regression analysis to investigate the impact of socioeconomic characteristics, internet access, and internet skills on online economic activities. Our sample, based on a 2016 dataset that included 1554 people with disabilities and 6004 people without disabilities, was developed using quota sampling based on gender, age, and residence. We determined that individuals with disabilities were more likely to engage in online economic activities if they had higher levels of education, lived in urban areas, were employed, or had greater internet skills. Individuals without disabilities were more likely to engage in online economic activities if they were women, had higher levels of education, were employed, lived in a two-generation or more household, or had greater internet skills. For both people with and without disabilities, the level of education, employment status, and internet skills positively contribute to online economic activites. We also determined that education level, participation in economic activity, living in a two-generation or more household, and internet skills had a statistically significant influence on online economic activity for people both with and without disabilities. These results highlight the importance of education and internet training for people with disabilities, as well as social support systems that help them learn to use the internet in diverse ways through both formal and informal networks. The study also underscores the importance of information and communications technology that adequately addresses people’s needs.     

完善我国政策性房地产金融机构建设的思考

在市场机制存在资源无法有效配置的局限性下,商业性房地产金融机构与政策性房地产金融机构协同发展的同时,应更重视政策性房地产金融机构的发展。借鉴日本、韩国和新加坡的经验,我国政策性房地产金融机构应该在政府的支持下配合公积金项目,筹集社会各界资金,保障我国房地产业健康稳定发展。     

建构一个新的城乡一体化分析框架：机会平等视角

对城乡一体化的现有研究或采用经济学视角,或采用制度学视角,而很少采用机会平等视角。研究认为:不论是经济资源配置还是制度和政策制定,都要视对城乡机会平等的影响如何,来判断其是否促进城乡一体化进程。机会平等是城乡一体化的本质属性。当然,机会是复杂、多样的,可以划分为基本生存机会、中层机会和高层机会,与此同时,平等也可以划分为形式平等和实质平等。在推进不同类型机会平等上,城乡一体化表现出不同的进度。该分析框架可以更好地分析我国城乡一体化进程(包括地区城乡一体化进程)。