功能性能分离的可信服务构件模型

为了向分布式实时嵌入式系统(DRES)的运行过程提供可信保障服务,方便上层应用程序的开发,提出了一种针对DRES的可信构件服务模型QUOCCM。该模型将系统功能实现与性能确保分离开,把应用程序的性能确保模块抽象成通用的服务确保构件,为运行于动态环境下的应用程序提供自适应的可信保障服务。该文以一个模拟实现的飞行控制系统验证了QUOCCM模型的可行性和灵活性。     

The School Success Profile Online

SUMMARY

This article provides an overview of the purposes, development, and implementation of the School Success Profile Online (SSP)–a computerized, self-report survey for middle and high school students. The SSP takes advantage of World Wide Web technology and the increasing access of public schools to computers and the Internet to assess students' perceptions of their neighborhoods, schools, peers, and families, as well as their own psychological and physical health and school performance. The individual and group profiles generated by the SSP can help school social workers identify areas of concern, plan their interventions with students, and evaluate the impact of their efforts at the end of interventions.     

网购环境下在线零售商的退货运费承担策略研究

在电子商务环境下，宽松的退货政策能够刺激需求，促进货品销量的增长，但与此同时也导致了退货量的增多。在面临高退货，特别是无缺陷退货不断攀升的挑战下，在线商家应如何制定合理的退货策略成为值得研究的一个问题。本文主要针对退货运费承担问题，重点比较消费者承担退货运费、商家承担退货运费、双方共同承担退货运费三种策略，探讨不同策略下在线零售商的最优定价及其盈利能力。研究结果表明：为实现利润最大化，在线零售商应根据商品的无缺陷退货比例特征选择相应的策略。具体而言，当商品的无缺陷退货比例较低时，宜采用消费者承担退货运费策略；当无缺陷退货比例高时，宜采用商家承担退货运费策略；当无缺陷退货比例居中时，宜采用共同承担退货运费策略。值得注意的是，退货政策的目的是为了刺激需求的增长，但有时退货政策对需求的促进作用不够理想，不能抵消退货的负面影响，那么这种情况下则无论无缺陷退货占比如何，在线零售商的最佳退货策略只能是让消费者承担退货运费，以此避免更多非理性退货行为的发生。     

考虑线下权力结构的制造商线上销售模式选择研究

在线下垂直实力对等、制造商主导和实体店主导三种渠道权力结构下，构建制造商、实体店和电商之间的博弈模型，探讨线下渠道权力结构与制造商线上销售模式的匹配关系。研究结果表明：（1）当电商要求的佣金比例较小时，在不同的线下渠道权力结构下，制造商都应该选择线上代销模式；而当电商要求的佣金比例较大时，在线下垂直实力对等结构下，制造商应该选择线上转销模式，而在制造商主导和实体店主导结构下，制造商应该选择线上代销模式。（2）当制造商选择线上转销模式时，在线下制造商主导的结构下，制造商给予实体店的批发价格最大，在垂直实力对等结构下次之，在实体店主导结构下最小。然而，线下渠道权力结构的差异并不会影响制造商给予电商的批发价格。（3）当制造商选择线上代销模式时，在线下制造商主导结构下，线下销售价格最高；在线下垂直实力对等结构下，线上销售价格最高。     

购物网站的个性化推荐对网络购物体验影响的实证研究

结合网络购物体验和个性化推荐的相关理论，对个性化推荐、网络购物体验、隐私关注之间的关系进行实证研究。通过设计不同的场景和采用问卷调查法收集数据，运用SPSS软件对数据进行多元线性回归分析对研究的问题进行验证和探讨。实证分析结果表明，购物网站推荐的个性化程度与消费者的网络购物体验之间存在正向作用关系，消费者的隐私关注在其中发挥调节作用。     

The Effects of the Facial Expression of Beneficiaries in Charity Appeals and Psychological Involvement on Donation Intentions

To increase the effectiveness of fundraising campaigns, many human‐need charities include pictures of beneficiaries in their ads. However, it is unclear when and why the facial expression of these beneficiaries (sad versus happy) may influence the effectiveness of charity ads. To answer these questions, an experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of the facial expression on donation intentions, while considering the moderating role of psychological involvement with charities. It found that psychological involvement with charities moderated the impact of the facial expression on donation intentions in that seeing a picture of a sad versus happy person increased intentions to give among participants with lower levels of psychological involvement, whereas the reverse was true for highly involved participants. The moderating effect of psychological involvement was fully explained by the perceived efficacy of one's donation. The findings not only contribute to our understanding of the effect of the facial expression of people pictured in charity appeals on donation behavior, but also suggest that nonprofits should tailor their ads to target potential donors with various levels of psychological involvement with charities.     

Hazards regression for freemium products and services: a competing risks approach

We propose a competing risks approach to analyse customer behaviours in freemium products and services. The event of interest is when a customer starts to pay for additional features or functionalities. The observation of such an event may be preempted by an event where the customer quits using the product before paying and consuming the additional features or functionalities. One such freemium service is the online game category. The Fine-Gray regression model was implemented for an online game player activity data to study how covariates affect the paying hazard. Some covariates are hypothesized to have different discrete effects at multiple change points. We extend the model to allow for possible change points in the analysis.     

The Value of Weather Information for E‐Commerce Operations

To be efficient, logistics operations in e‐commerce require warehousing and transportation resources to be aligned with sales. Customer orders must be fulfilled with short lead times to ensure high customer satisfaction, and the costly under‐utilization of workers must be avoided. To approach this ideal, forecasting order quantities with high accuracy is essential. Many drivers of online sales, including seasonality, special promotions and public holidays, are well known, and they have been frequently incorporated into forecasting approaches. However, the impact of weather on e‐commerce operations has not been rigorously analyzed. In this study, we integrate weather data into the sales forecasting of the largest European online fashion retailer. We find that sunshine, temperature, and rain have a significant impact on daily sales, particularly in the summer, on weekends, and on days with extreme weather. Using weather forecasts, we have significantly improved sales forecast accuracy. We find that including weather data in the sales forecast model can lead to fewer sales forecast errors, reducing them by, on average, 8.6% to 12.2% and up to 50.6% on summer weekends. In turn, the improvement in sales forecast accuracy has a measurable impact on logistics and warehousing operations. We quantify the value of incorporating weather forecasts in the planning process for the order fulfillment center workforce and show how their incorporation can be leveraged to reduce costs and increase performance. With a perfect information planning scenario, excess costs can be reduced by 11.6% compared with the cost reduction attainable with a baseline model that ignores weather information in workforce planning.     

郭正域《文选》评点浅论

郭正域流传到今天的《文选》评本共有三种，它们之间内容都有出入，应皆是依当时流行的评本、又有所选择加工而成。作为较早的文人评本，郭正域的《文选》评点与出现于其前的书商操作评本有着质的差别，在《文选》评点学史上有着重大的价值与意义。在评点中，郭正域表达了对七子派主张的不满，明确提倡六朝文学，强调文学作品的“表情”作用。批评谢灵运作品的独特角度，则有补七子派一味以格调衡文之偏的重要意义。他的评点也提示着当代人对评点著作应给予更多的关注，以免造成文学批评史的遗珠之憾。     

对网络交际的思考

网络交际现今已经成为很多人生活的一部分,通过网络空间人们交流更加便捷,更加丰富。网络交际对我们的现实社会文化和人际交流有着深刻的影响和冲击。网络交际弱化了文化因素对交际主体角色的制约和影响;网络交际的开放性使不同文化的人更容易交流和相互认同,弱化了本土文化对人际交往的影响;网络交际形成的特殊文化,引起了文化的碰撞和交融;网络交际的不真实性加剧了人与人的信任危机;网络交际信息与真实信息的差异,及网络上对他人隐私的侵害给日常生活交际带来了不利的影响。