The Collapsing Choice Theory: Dissociating Choice and Judgment in Decision Making

Decision making theory in general, and mental models in particular, associate judgment and choice. Decision choice follows probability estimates and errors in choice derive mainly from errors in judgment. In the studies reported here we use the Monty Hall dilemma to illustrate that judgment and choice do not always go together, and that such a dissociation can lead to better decision-making. Specifically, we demonstrate that in certain decision problems, exceeding working memory limitations can actually improve decision choice. We show across four experiments that increasing the number of choice alternatives forces people to collapse choices together, resulting in better decision-making. While choice performance improves, probability judgments do not change, thus demonstrating an important dissociation between choice and probability judgments. We propose the Collapsing Choice Theory (CCT) which explains how working memory capacity, probability estimation, choice alternatives, judgment, and regret all interact and effect decision quality.      

事业单位干部培训存在的问题及对策

干部培训是当前事业单位日常工作的重要组成部分。但是，许多事业单位的干部培训工作存在着重视不足、投入不够、效果不明显、考核体系缺失等问题，在一定程度上影响了干部培训的实际效果。而如何切实解决这些问题，也就成为优化事业单位干部培训工作的方向选择。     

“投票悖论”的分析及其矫正——理性选择理论的“投票现象”应用批判

投票机制是民主政治的制度性保障,但它却存在着一个悖论。这一悖论可被简单地表述为：在投票参与者意识到自己的选票对结果的影响是微不足道的时候,他们往往不会牺牲闲暇以及交通成本等方面的付出到投票站投出手中的选票。美国大选仅仅具有半数左右的参与率似乎也在事实上为以上＂洞见＂提供了心理学依据和社会学依据。在试图解决投票悖论这一问题的过程中,具体分析理性选择理论是如何从一个过分武断化了的前提出发,而走向一条循环论证的死胡同的;进而希望通过为投票动机添加新的变量的方式来缓解理性选择理论的这种弊病。     

公共选择理论与"公共服务市场化"--西方行政改革的理论背景

公共服务的市场化是20世纪80年代西方发达国家行政改革的核心主题,也是取得最大成效的改革领域.文章对公共选择理论对"公共物品供给的低效率"所导致的政府失败的分析予以了关注,对各国在实践中针对于此所进行的"公共服务市场化"的改革进行了评价.     

中国城镇化道路的战略选择

作为现代化重要标志之一的城镇化是社会发展的必然趋势 ,也是世界各国发展的自然过程。城镇化是一个农村人口和生产要素不断向新兴城镇转移并聚集的过程 ,包括城镇人口和新兴城镇数量的增加以及社会经济的现代化。进入 2 1世纪 ,城镇化在国民经济的发展中扮演着越来越重要的角色 ,如何选择一条适合中国国情的城镇化道路是推进城镇化快速发展的首要问题。文章分析了中国城镇化的严重滞后现状和城镇化的重要性 ,最后提出了适合中国国情的城镇化发展道路的建议。     

关于目前哲学形状的反思

哲学已经陷入了困境,这是从事哲学教学与研究的人必须要面对的现实。出现这种情况的根源简单的可以概括为：一是哲学缺少反思,批判性差,处于失职状态：二是充满假大空,粉饰太平,没有实现求真知,捍卫真理的历史使命：三是体系单一,内容陈旧,不能适应改革发展的需要;四是表述混乱,故弄玄虚,玩文字游戏,离现实越来越远。     

中国文化视野中的实践美学

实践美学受西方文化的影响是显而易见的,但就此来理解其渊源,则面临着一系列无法回答的问题。它是一个典型的中国学派,是中华民族文化心理结构的产物。实践美学在中国的崛起和兴盛,有着时代的现实原因,其代表人物的身上承接着中华文化传统的余脉,他们外部研究的视角、将美学研究价值化、伦理化的倾向、对‘人’的社会性群体性的界定,与中华文化传统有着内在的联系。     

软预算约束与国企改革：从要素投入的视角分析

论文运用动态模型对软预算约束的形成路径进行了理论研究,并对中国国有企业改革的路径选择进行实证研究。研究结果表明软预算约束起源于企业要素投入与生产模式的匹配模式,而中国国有企业改革路径选择的结果是使要素投入和生产模式满足弱匹配条件。     

Bounded rationality and consumer choice: an evaluation of consumer choice of mobile bundles

Although numerous prior studies have examined consumer valuations in bundling transactions from a theoretical perspective, relatively few have focused on large datasets. In addition, little prior research has targeted developing telecommunication markets. To address these gaps in the literature, we examine the rationality of consumers' bundling choices in the mobile telecommunication industry, using operational data from China Telecom. We compare the current prices paid by consumers to the optimal prices of alternative bundling plans, based on the consumers' actual usage. We determine whether bundling choice is affected by risk aversion, the complexity of the bundle, and learning effects. The findings suggested that many users chose sub-optimal bundles that were more expensive than others were. The results showed that consumers were risk averse, and they were more likely to make non-optimal bundle selections with more complex usage patterns. No significant differences were found according to gender, age, or usage level.     

A correlation-theoretical interpretation of schur analysis

This paper is heavily leaned on the author's recent investigations concerning SCHUR analysis of non-negative Hermitian block matrices. The parameters of the matrix balls and the triangular choice scheme which describe a non-negative Hermitian block matrix will be interpreted in the framework of correlation theory