Decision Analysis and Risk Management Decision Making: Issues and Methods

This paper provides an overview of decision analysis and its use in risk management decision making. The paper discusses the distinctive characteristics of decision analysis and compares these characteristics with those of its principal alternative—cost–benefit analysis. The paper also discusses each of the steps in a decision analysis and the strengths and limitations of the method.     

中国高龄老人生活自理能力纵向动态研究

利用"中国老年健康长寿跟踪调查"1998年、2000年、2002年的跟踪数据分析中国高龄老人ADL的变动趋势及其影响因素。个体增长模型结果显示,高龄老人ADL状况随年龄增长出现了明显的下降趋势,ADL个体差异十分显著。个体之间的差异解释了ADL总差异的31.13%。经历三次追踪调查的高龄老人ADL均值较高,状况较好,下降速度较慢;基期具有3-4项残障的高龄老人,未来ADL下降最为迅速;基期ADL水平高的高龄老人,ADL下降较慢。从ADL的个体影响因素来看,对于基期ADL水平影响最大的变量是"年龄"、"疾病状况"以及"居住安排"等,而对观测期ADL变动速度影响最大的变量是"年龄"以及"过去是否经常从事体力劳动"等。     

《哲里木畜牧学院学报》1996—1999年引文分析

对《哲里木畜牧学院学报》1996— 1999年 4年共 16期学报论文后所引用的参考文献的年代、类型、语种等进行了统计分析     

Decision settings analysis – a tool for analysis and design of human activity systems

The paper describes a methodology to be used for analysis and design of human activity systems. The methodology is based on an analysis of the decision settings whereas most other decision analysis methodologies are analysing the process. The decision concept is analysed and discussed. A distinction between programmed and programmable as well as non-programmed and non-programmable decisions is proposed. A classification of different information types for decision making is presented. A methodology based on a systemic and systematic analysis of the information requirements of an organization is proposed. This methodology also indicates organizational discrepancies and information imbalances. The methodology focuses the settings of the decisions on all levels of organizations. The methodology can be regarded as a dynamic, learning system. The author proposes further research on the individuals decision making abilities.     

流动人口计划生育服务与生殖保健需求缺口及应对

流动人口是易于受伤害,合法权益难以保障的特殊人口群体。为确保流动人口都能享受到计划生育技术服务和生殖保健服务,本文探索了这两种需求服务的缺口及原因,并提出了规范服务的应对措施建议。     

草地早熟禾主要经济性状间的灰色关联分析

应用灰色关联分析方法研究了坪用草地早熟禾地上生物量、生殖枝数、生殖枝高、穗长、穗粒数、结实率等6个主要经济性状与种子产量以及各性状之间的关联程度。结果表明,各性状与种子产量之间的关联度大小依次为单位面积生殖枝数＞单位面积地上生物量＞生殖技高＞穗长＞结实率＞穗粒数。地上生物量对生殖校高、生殖枝数和穗长的影响较大。     

Cohort Succession in the US Housing Market: New Houses, the Baby Boom, and Income Stratification

Federal housing policy in the US across the postwar period supported the construction of new houses more than public provision or renovation of older structures as a means of ensuring a sufficient supply of quality dwellings. Understanding trends in new housing in particular is thus crucial to understanding the housing regime. Following Myers (Housing demography: Linking demographic structure and housing markets. University of Wisconsin Press, 1990; Housing Studies, 14, 473–490,1999), this paper conceptualizes historical change in the housing stock within a demographic framework as the movement of cohorts of households through cohorts of housing stock. Recent evidence suggests that a new cohort of houses arose in the 1980s and 1990s (larger with more amenities than past vintages), and that buyers of those new houses were increasingly affluent. In this paper, I link the succession to a new cohort of houses to household cohort succession and examine the increasing affluence of new house buyers by age and cohort, focusing especially on the entry of the Baby Boom generation exactly when the new cohort of houses arrived. I use US Census microdata for 1960–2000 to develop a cohort longitudinal dataset, and analyze historical change in stratification in new house ownership. I find significant shifts between cohorts in income inequality among new house buyers, with implications for the capacity of the housing regime to meet the future needs of an increasingly diverse population.

Survival Convergence and the Preceding Mortality Crossover for Two Population Subgroups

In this paper, we present and develop the argument that if the survival functions for two population subgroups converge in later life, a mortality crossover must precede the occurrence of this convergence. Specifically, two survival curves, S ₁(x) and S ₂(x), associated with two distinct population subgroups, G₁ and G₂, tend to converge before all members die out, as often observed and anticipated. This convergence leads to an increased mortality acceleration for the “advantaged” group, and eventually fosters the occurrence of a mortality crossover. We present a mathematical proof for this relationship and offer several explanations for the mechanisms involved in the process of survival convergence and the preceding mortality crossover. This new presentation demonstrates that mortality crossover is a highly observable demographic event given the trend of survival convergence in later life.     

"启蒙理性的审美置换"——论《哦,香雪》、《没有纽扣的红衬衫》的现代性及其文学史地位

以新时期初期的文学实践为背景,从现代性的视野中考察铁凝作为启蒙知识分子身份认同及其创作,可以揭示在80年代特殊的历史时刻和政治意识形态空间中,铁凝与其他知识分子由于身份、代际和经历不同所造成的不同的文学话语和意义。铁凝初期创作中以强烈的知识分子主体意识和理性启蒙精神,通过对少女香雪、安然的塑造建构了真正意义上现代性的独立人格和自我主体形象,使《哦,香雪》、《没有纽扣的红衬衫》在新时期文坛首先发出了“立人”的声音,并以其独特的艺术美感开启了新时期文学“个人化”叙事的源头。     

我国老年人临终前需要完全照料的时间分析

根据中国老年人健康长寿影响因素2005年第4周期调查数据,用多水平随机效应序列模型,对中国65岁及以上老年人临终前需要他人完全照料的天数进行较为系统的分析。结果显示照料时间与杜区社会经济发展因素无很大关联性,但与性别、受教育程度、有病及时治疗、子女可近度、经常参与宗教佛事活动和基期健康等个体因素存在一定依存关系。