历史民族志《溪蛮丛笑》论略——兼论作者朱辅其人

《溪蛮丛笑》一书以条目体例形式记述了公元 12世纪时沅江流域各民族的风俗习惯、土产方物、文物古迹 ,是研究这一时期湘西民族史及历史民族文化状况的珍贵资料。原书作者朱辅为南宋人 ,其生卒年代、仕履经历及其人品才识的具体情况史料缺载 ,本文运用历史人类学的理论和方法 ,借助《溪蛮丛笑》一书本身和叶钱为该书所作序言及其他相关零星资料 ,尽可能对朱辅的生平、为人品格和才情学识加以大致复原     

新型蓄光性长余辉荧光陶瓷的研制

研究了基础釉的成分、蓄光粉的加入量、釉层厚度和烧成温度制度等因素对蓄光陶瓷发光性能的影响以及各种制品最佳工艺技术路线的确定.     

论京剧的雅化及其鼎盛

文章论述了京剧在 2 0世纪 30年代达到鼎盛阶段的内外部原因。在其内部原因上 ,作者以其研究古代文学史时所提出的“原生态式的把握方式”来观察这一段京剧史 ,从而对这一段京剧史的发展作了新的勾勒 :艺术块团之形成、相互间的争锋、浮沉以及名号形成的种种情况。在其外部原因上 ,论述了京剧是如何从回应“五四”新文化运动的批评以及如何从向话剧的学习中受益的。 30年代新文化界对于当时京剧的雅化是批判的 ,作者则对此取肯定态度。最后还说明了 ,当京剧出国演出时 ,它的许多曾受“五四”新文化运动批判的特点 ,却受到了国外艺术家的肯定 ,中国的京剧艺术家们也更加开拓了视野 :由此勾勒出京剧发展过程中的一个大的回旋     

上海市空气污染造成人群健康经济损失的研究

文章通过对上海市空气污染季节性状况的描述 ,分析了各种污染物的污染程度和变化趋势 ,并利用对上海某市级医院的实地调查数据 ,对空气污染物与医院呼吸系统疾病患者日门诊量之间的相关关系进行研讨 ,建立了多元分析模型 ,探讨了患者健康经济损失的计量方法 ,并对由空气污染造成呼吸系统疾病患者健康经济损失进行了估算。研究表明 ,在其他条件不变的情况下 ,NOX 日指数每增长 10 % ,被调查医院呼吸系统疾病患者的日门诊人次增加 7 7人次 ,而这些疾病患者由于患病产生的年度健康经济损失为 2 11万元。据此作保守的推断估计 ,上海市一年内因NOX 超标而发生的呼吸系统疾病门诊行为造成的健康经济损失可以达到 4 2亿元。同样 ,SO2 和TSP造成门诊患者的健康经济损失分别为 1 5亿元和 0 86亿元     

日据至光复初期台湾博物馆管窥

日据至光复初期台湾的主要博物馆有4个,其中首推台湾总督博物馆,次为台中教育博物馆,台南教育博物馆,嘉义通俗博物馆。台湾总督博物馆,是台湾最早的博物馆,历史可追溯到1899年;1945年台湾光复,改称为台湾省博物馆。此外,当时台湾的部分院校和科研机构,亦设置有博物馆、植物园及小型的陈列馆或标本室。     

胡适文明观论析

本文比较系统地评述了胡适关于文明内涵的界定和中西近代民族文化意识的比较，进一步阐述胡适建立在比较、反省基础上的再造中国现代文明的思想，指出这是一种开放的、主动汇入世界现代文明潮流的有效途径。因此，胡适文明观在我国现代化发展中仍不失其意义。     

Bayesian analysis of elapsed times in continuous‐time Markov chains

The authors consider Bayesian analysis for continuous‐time Markov chain models based on a conditional reference prior. For such models, inference of the elapsed time between chain observations depends heavily on the rate of decay of the prior as the elapsed time increases. Moreover, improper priors on the elapsed time may lead to improper posterior distributions. In addition, an infinitesimal rate matrix also characterizes this class of models. Experts often have good prior knowledge about the parameters of this matrix. The authors show that the use of a proper prior for the rate matrix parameters together with the conditional reference prior for the elapsed time yields a proper posterior distribution. The authors also demonstrate that, when compared to analyses based on priors previously proposed in the literature, a Bayesian analysis on the elapsed time based on the conditional reference prior possesses better frequentist properties. The type of prior thus represents a better default prior choice for estimation software.     

当前我国社会信仰危机及重建之路

随着改革开放带来的社会巨大转型,我国社会出现了信仰危机,具体表现为价值迷惘、道德失范、理想幻灭以及封建迷信卷土重来和各类宗教、半宗教的乘虚而入。针对社会信仰危机产生的原因,信仰的重建必须营造良好的社会环境,并在坚持马克思主义信仰主导地位的同时,兼容其他有益的社会信仰,最终促进社会主义和谐社会的建设。     

阶段的过渡与本质的上升——20世纪90年代至21世纪初国际社会发展本质特点的系统与实证分析

论述了冷战结束以来 ,国际社会在“一个主题”(和平与发展 )“两个趋势”(经济全球化、政治多极化 )的总特征前提下发生的一系列深刻的结构性变化。提出了旧的国际格局被打破、新的格局尚未形成 ,在新旧体系转换的过程中 ,不同的国际关系主体为了其各自的根本利益、为在未来的新格局中占据更加有利的地位而展开了新一轮的较量。在此过程中 ,国际社会呈现出过渡时期所特有的一系列纷繁复杂的特征 ,并进一步影响着国际形势的走势。我们应当立足于从形式到本质的认知途径对这些变化特征进行深刻的分析 ,以求准确地把握新时期国际社会发展的本质性特征和规律     

Exposure Reconstruction for the TCDD-Exposed NIOSH Cohort Using a Concentration- and Age-Dependent Model of Elimination

Recent studies demonstrating a concentration dependence of elimination of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) suggest that previous estimates of exposure for occupationally exposed cohorts may have underestimated actual exposure, resulting in a potential overestimate of the carcinogenic potency of TCDD in humans based on the mortality data for these cohorts. Using a database on U.S. chemical manufacturing workers potentially exposed to TCDD compiled by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), we evaluated the impact of using a concentration- and age-dependent elimination model (CADM) (Aylward et al., 2005) on estimates of serum lipid area under the curve (AUC) for the NIOSH cohort. These data were used previously by Steenland et al. (2001) in combination with a first-order elimination model with an 8.7-year half-life to estimate cumulative serum lipid concentration (equivalent to AUC) for these workers for use in cancer dose-response assessment. Serum lipid TCDD measurements taken in 1988 for a subset of the cohort were combined with the NIOSH job exposure matrix and work histories to estimate dose rates per unit of exposure score. We evaluated the effect of choices in regression model (regression on untransformed vs. ln-transformed data and inclusion of a nonzero regression intercept) as well as the impact of choices of elimination models and parameters on estimated AUCs for the cohort. Central estimates for dose rate parameters derived from the serum-sampled subcohort were applied with the elimination models to time-specific exposure scores for the entire cohort to generate AUC estimates for all cohort members. Use of the CADM resulted in improved model fits to the serum sampling data compared to the first-order models. Dose rates varied by a factor of 50 among different combinations of elimination model, parameter sets, and regression models. Use of a CADM results in increases of up to five-fold in AUC estimates for the more highly exposed members of the cohort compared to estimates obtained using the first-order model with 8.7-year half-life. This degree of variation in the AUC estimates for this cohort would affect substantially the cancer potency estimates derived from the mortality data from this cohort. Such variability and uncertainty in the reconstructed serum lipid AUC estimates for this cohort, depending on elimination model, parameter set, and regression model, have not been described previously and are critical components in evaluating the dose-response data from the occupationally exposed populations.