ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN AIR POLLUTION AND HOSPITAL VISITS FOR CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES IN THE ELDERLY IN SYDNEY USING BAYESIAN STATISTICAL METHODS

Using generalized linear models (GLMs), Jalaludin  et al. (2006;  J. Exposure Analysis and Epidemiology   16 , 225–237) studied the association between the daily number of visits to emergency departments for cardiovascular disease by the elderly (65+) and five measures of ambient air pollution. Bayesian methods provide an alternative approach to classical time series modelling and are starting to be more widely used. This paper considers Bayesian methods using the dataset used by Jalaludin  et al.  (2006) , and compares the results from Bayesian methods with those obtained by Jalaludin  et al.  (2006) using GLM methods.     

大学生体质健康现状及提高对策研究

通过对大学生体育课、课外体育锻炼、课余生活方式的调查,并对大学生体质、体能与健康指标进行测试分析,揭示大学生体质健康的现状,为提高大学生健康水平提供客观依据。     

《红岩》:知识分子的凤凰涅槃

在新中国十七年"红色经典"当中,<红岩>是社会影响最大的一部小说,作品成功塑造了一批中国共产党人的光辉形象,并以生动而感人的故事情节,书写了知识分子革命者的钢铁意志和精神炼狱,进而成为了广大知识分子思想改造的政治"教科书",由此深深影响了几代中国人的成长历程.     

魏晋南北朝时期疾疫研究综述（1980～2006）

魏晋南北朝时期是中国古代疾疫的高发阶段,一些学者们对这方面的研究颇为重视。20世纪80年代以来,随着认识和研究的不断深入,研究成果层出不穷,一些独特的研究方法及其特点也逐渐呈现出来。总结经验,抓住薄弱环节,有助于此项研究进一步得到深入。     

A reconstruction of the size and composition of Jewish Holocaust survivors in the Netherlands, 1945

Compared to other countries that have suffered from the Nazioccupation, the destructive impact of the Holocaust on theJewish population has been particularly strong in the Netherlands. This paper gives a demographicreconstruction of the Jewish population in the Netherlands by the end of the war (1945),disaggregated by age and sex. The reconstruction is based on two approaches: a forwardprojection 1941–1945, starting from registration data supplemented by information onHolocaust losses; and a backward projection 1966–1945, starting from an enumerationof Halachic Jews carried out in 1966. The two approaches yieldtwo estimates that are comfortingly similar.     

Incorporating human sexuality content into a positive youth development framework: Implications for community prevention

As approaches to positive youth development (PYD) gain momentum, the issue of sexuality – a critical component of human development – is being subsumed by ideological debates. In the current political climate, sexuality education is often relegated to biological and/or values-based approaches, neglecting essential relational and collective aspects of sexuality. Through the explication of sexuality as an important component of youth's social ecology, this paper provides a conceptual link between the goals of the Sexuality Information and Education Council of the United States' (SIECUS) Guidelines for comprehensive sexuality education and those of PYD. We argue that sexuality, as a normative part of human development, culture, identity, and relationships, be approached from an asset-based perspective, rather than a deficit-based perspective. We propose a framework that illustrates how aspects of sexuality are embedded within PYD contexts, and demonstrates how a sexuality education program rooted in SIECUS guidelines can further PYD goals across community contexts.     

同义义场义位的配价研究

主要依据商务印书馆第5版《现代汉语词典》的释义,对黄伯荣、廖序东主编的《现代汉语》、胡裕树主编的《现代汉语》、张斌主编的《新编现代汉语》、邢福义主编的《现代汉语》、杨润陆编的《现代汉语》、唐朝阔、王群生主编的《现代汉语》等6部高校教材中所收同义词的配价情况进行穷尽性研究,得出结论：两个或以上义位的本体和本体之间、本体和变体之间、变体和变体之间,均可构成同义义场。因此,我们研究同义义场,应该明确是此义位的哪个体与彼义位的哪个体构成同义义场。词性不同的各个词,不能构成同义义场,因为在语义领域,它们的主要语义特征不同。无论是哪一种同义义场,属于同一同义义场的各个义位的本体或变体,它们的配价都是相同的。     

Retrospective change detection in categorical time series

The aim of this paper is to propose methods of detecting change in the coefficients of a multinomial logistic regression model for categorical time series offline. The alternatives to the null hypothesis of stationarity can be either the hypothesis that it is not true, or that there is a temporary change in the sequence. We use the efficient score vector of the partial likelihood function. This has several advantages. First, the alternative value of the parameter does not have to be estimated; hence, we have a procedure that has a simple structure with only one parameter estimation using all available observations. This is in contrast with the generalized likelihood ratio-based change point tests. The efficient score vector is used in various ways. As a vector, its components correspond to the different components of the multinomial logistic regression model’s parameter vector. Using its quadratic form a test can be defined, where the presence of a change in any or all parameters is tested for. If there are too many parameters one can test for any subset while treating the rest as nuisance parameters. Our motivating example is a DNA sequence of four categories, and our test result shows that in the published data the distribution of the four categories is not stationary.     

Driving outcomes: learning to drive,resilience and young people living in residential care

There are continuing concerns about the experiences offered to older adolescents being looked after (‘in care’) in the UK and, especially, to care leavers. Questions are asked about the limitations of State care compared with normal family life. This paper reports on an initiative to provide driving lessons to a group of six young men living in residential homes in one city. It links with resilience theory – how individuals can have relatively good outcomes despite early adversity. A qualitative study was undertaken to explore the effects of the initiative, including individual interviews with young men, heads of homes in which they lived and children's services managers. The overall results indicated that the initiative was very worthwhile. The lessons were a significant part of young people's lives. Possible effects on young people were divided into personal, instrumental and social. Benefits were reported from all parties concerning young people's self‐esteem and self‐confidence, as well as in forging close relationships with supportive adults. Driving would not be seen as a panacea for complex personal histories and structural problems, yet this small experiment suggests that driving lessons could be of disproportionate benefit and there is a moral obligation to provide them in any case.     

Mate Availability and Women's Sexual Experiences in China

Data from the 1999-2000 Chinese Health and Family Life Survey were merged with community-level data from the 1982, 1990, and 2000 Chinese censuses to examine the relationship between the local sex ratio (number of men per 100 women) and sexual outcomes among women (N = 1,369). Consistent with hypotheses derived from demographic-opportunity theory, multilevel logistic regression analyses showed that women are more likely to be sexually active, to have had premarital sexual intercourse, to have been forced to have sex, and to test positive for a sexually transmitted infection when there is a relative abundance of age-matched men in their local community. Education, birth cohort, and geographic location also emerged as significant predictors of women's sexual experiences.