Bayesian Network for Risk of Diarrhea Associated with the Use of Recycled Water

Estimating potential health risks associated with recycled (reused) water is highly complex given the multiple factors affecting water quality. We take a conceptual model, which represents the factors and pathways by which recycled water may pose a risk of contracting gastroenteritis, convert the conceptual model to a Bayesian net, and quantify the model using one expert's opinion. This allows us to make various predictions as to the risks posed under various scenarios. Bayesian nets provide an additional way of modeling the determinants of recycled water quality and elucidating their relative influence on a given disease outcome. The important contribution to Bayesian net methodology is that all model predictions, whether risk or relative risk estimates, are expressed as credible intervals.     

1.5m2高频振动筛结构改进

针对目前在矿棉板备浆生产线上广泛使用的高频振动筛存在的噪音大、动力消耗大、筛板易堵塞、除渣效果差等 问题,对高频振动筛筛框结构、筛板形状和减震弹簧等进行了优化改进,对振动频率、振幅、筛板的孔径通过理论计算得 出几个基本数值范围,再通过对基本数值范围内的不同数值的实际测试,确定最佳数值。新设计的振动筛经实际使用表 明运行稳定,浆料利用率高,能耗低,噪音小,取得了很好的经济效果。     

电子商务:增强中国造纸企业竞争力的有效途径

信息化和电子商务对经济增长和企业竞争力有着巨大影响。通过对中国造纸企业竞争形势的分析 ,阐述了在加入WTO的背景下 ,国内造纸企业缺乏竞争力的原因。分析了电子商务与提高企业竞争力的关系及国内外造纸行业电子商务的应用现状 ,在此基础上指出 :中国造纸企业要改变目前处于竞争劣势的局面 ,必须抓住机遇 ,通过发展电子商务来促进企业管理水平的全面提高 ,从而增强自身的竞争力 ,并加快整个造纸行业的现代化进程 ,并进一步提出了6条推进造纸企业电子商务发展的措施     

基于循环经济的制度分析

循环经济是在资源与环境约束下追求有效经济增长,促进社会、经济与生态环保协调统一的全新的经济发展模式。中国现有制度对循环经济的发展构成了障碍,创建适应循环经济发展的全新的制度体系意义重大。建立新型的循环经济框架下的制度体系,应该在剖析我国现有制度障碍的基础上,借鉴发达国家的先进经验,完善我国现有的法律制度,建立科学的自然资源产权制度和保障清洁生产顺利实施的制度,建立健全环境影响评价制度和企业环境信息公开制度等,为循环经济的发展提供良好的制度环境。     

Risk of Norovirus Gastroenteritis from Consumption of Vegetables Irrigated with Highly Treated Municipal Wastewater—Evaluation of Methods to Estimate Sewage Quality

Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to assess the risk of norovirus gastroenteritis associated with consumption of raw vegetables irrigated with highly treated municipal wastewater, using Melbourne, Australia as an example. In the absence of local norovirus concentrations, three methods were developed: (1) published concentrations of norovirus in raw sewage, (2) an epidemiological method using Melbourne prevalence of norovirus, and (3) an adjustment of method 1 to account for prevalence of norovirus. The methods produced highly variable results with estimates of norovirus concentrations in raw sewage ranging from 10⁴ per milliliter to 10⁷ per milliliter and treated effluent from 1 × 10^?3 per milliliter to 3 per milliliter (95th percentiles). Annual disease burden was very low using method 1, from 4 to 5 log₁₀ disability adjusted life years (DALYs) below the 10^?6 threshold (0.005–0.1 illnesses per year). Results of method 2 were higher, with some scenarios exceeding the threshold by up to 2 log₁₀ DALYs (up to 95,000 illnesses per year). Method 3, thought to be most representative of Melbourne conditions, predicted annual disease burdens >2 log₁₀ DALYs lower than the threshold (～4 additional cases per year). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that input parameters used to estimate norovirus concentration accounted for much of the model output variability. This model, while constrained by a lack of knowledge of sewage concentrations, used the best available information and sound logic. Results suggest that current wastewater reuse behaviors in Melbourne are unlikely to cause norovirus risks in excess of the annual DALY health target.     

造纸企业生产信息系统的分析与设计

生产信息系统是企业信息系统的重要组成部分 ,它的实现将对提升造纸企业传统的管理模式产生重大影响。笔者通过对某造纸企业生产信息系统的分析与设计 ,给出一个实际开发的例子     

Introduction to critical perspectives and emerging models of inter-American studies

Abstract

Alfred Hitchcock’s Rear Window (1954) has been the subject of much critical attention, but the original story upon which it was based and its author, Cornell Woolrich, less so. This article examines ‘Rear Window’ (1942) in the context of Woolrich’s writing and his life more broadly, in order to reveal the privileged role of fenestral imagery in his work. Through a process which starts with surveillance through glass, and a creative interpretation of ‘real’ events consumed in terms strikingly similar to mass media entertainments, Woolrich’s marginalized protagonist assumes the role of the detective and, in doing so, his identity is enhanced. The Woolrichian window reifies abstract social boundaries. It serves, simultaneously, as a symbol of urban alienation and a fantasy of social integration. It also becomes a trope of consumption and popular culture. Hitchcock’s film has sometimes been praised for the self-conscious way in which it aligns the image of the window with the cinema screen in order to implicate viewers in the protagonist’s voyeuristic practice. This article extends such an analysis to Woolrich’s story, but also takes it a step further, to reveal the ways in which reading similarly might be regarded as a voyeuristic form of cultural consumption.     

猕猴桃果浆贮藏效果研究

猕猴桃鲜果不耐贮运,笔者采用简易贮藏半成品果浆方法,贮存21个月效果良好,为乡镇食品厂提供缓解猕猴桃加工期的实践经验。     

基于实物期权的林浆纸供应链博弈模型研究

针对林浆纸供应链中原材料供应不稳定、价格存在波动的情况,基于实物期权理论对营林企业原材料的期权定价决策、制浆造纸企业的原材料期权购买决策和期权执行决策进行探讨。通过构建Stackelberg博弈模型,分析营林企业与制浆造纸企业间的博弈过程,得到各决策变量间的相互影响。通过数值算例验证实物期权契约优于传统契约,为企业的实际运作提供管理启示。     

信息零余及其新闻信息资源的再度开发

信息零余是新闻媒体开发信息资源过程中出现的必然现象。随着新闻竞争的日趋激烈,新闻媒介传播同质信息已成为当前受众新闻信息消费的一大顽症。信息零余与新闻资源的再度开发之间存在着一种交叉趋同、同生共体的关系,新闻媒体要在竞争中争夺注意力资源,就应充分利用人才智能优势,对业界目之为新闻新视点而学界称之为再生信息的进行有效的再度开发,其中新闻传播者的创新思维是克服媒介同质信息传播的有效途径。