Tests and Confidence Intervals for an Extended Variance Component Using the Modified Likelihood Ratio Statistic

Abstract.  The large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic is studied for testing a variance component equal to a specified value. Formulas are presented in the general balanced case, whereas in the unbalanced case only the one-way random effects model is studied. Simulation studies are presented, showing that the normal approximation to the large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic gives confidence intervals for variance components with coverage probabilities very close to the nominal confidence coefficient.     

Does work during childhood affect the health of Guatemalan adults?

The diversity of potential relationships between child labor and health makes the empirical disentanglement of the causal relationship a difficult exercise. This paper examines the long run impact of child labour on health by controlling for unobserved household specific characteristics. In order to control for the unobserved households specific effect, we estimate a conditional fixed effect model using data on siblings constructed from the Guatemalan National Survey of Living Condition. The estimation results reinforce the conventional wisdom that child labor is harmful for health in the long run. The results can be interpreted as a lower bound of the true impact since healthier children are most likely to offer themselves for employment and to be appointed. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of IMF and IMF policy.     

琵琶曲《十面埋伏》与《霸王卸甲》的比较

琵琶乐曲《十面埋伏》和《霸王卸甲》是大家熟悉的两首琵琶武曲,它们虽然在题材上、形式上有相似之处,可仔细比较起来却还是有许多差异。通过对创作特点,演奏特点和审美特点三方面的综合阐述,揭示了两首乐曲的内在联系和不同之处,便于欣赏者更好的了解两首古曲的动人之处。     

An experiment in primary health care provision

Missing data and, more generally, imperfections in implementing a study design are an endemic problem in large scale studies involving human subjects. We present an analysis of an experiment in the interaction between general practitioners and their patients, in which the issue of missing data is addressed by a sensitivity analysis using multiple imputation. Instead of specifying a model for missingness we explore certain extreme ways of departing from the assumption of data missing at random and establish the largest extent of such departures which would still fail to supplant the evidence about the studied effect. An important advantage of the approach is that the algorithm intended for the complete data, to fit generalized linear models with random effects, is used without any alteration.     

论艺术作品的客观性

本文从唯物辩证法的客观性原则出发，对艺术作品以及参照系进行了全面的考察，旨在说明艺术作品的客观性是指艺术作品内在固有的无穷无尽的特性，尽管它们必须通过各种参照系才能显现出来，我们也决不能说它们是参照系“赋予”的。另外，艺术作品还拥有显现的特性，它不仅能够使自身的特性得到显现，而且能够使每一存在物得到尽可能充分地显现。     

买方市场条件下的企业营销对策

买方市场的形成是我国经济发展过程的一个划时代变化，它将对我国企业经营和营销带来严峻挑战。本文分析了我国买方市场的形成、特征及其对企业营销的影响，并就买方市场条件下企业营销对策进行了重点分析。     

Java内部类的研究及应用

给出了Java内部类(Inner Class)的定义,在对其分类研究的基础上,分析了成员类、局部类和匿名类的基本特性、约束规则和引用方法,给出了各种内部类的使用方法、访问控制和应用实例.使用内部类简化了程序设计,符合信息隐藏原则,提高了程序的安全性、可理解性和运行效率.在Java面向对象技术(Object-Oriented Technique,OOT)教学与应用开发中收到了好的效果.     

Psychological Implications of Motherhood and Fatherhood in Midlife: Evidence From Sibling Models

Using data from 4,744 full, twin, half‐, adopted, and stepsiblings in the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, I examine psychological consequences of motherhood and fatherhood in midlife. My analysis includes between‐family models that compare individuals across families and within‐family models comparing siblings from the same family to account for unobserved genetic and environmental endowments that may confound the relationship between parenthood and mental health. Further, I examine whether the psychological effect of parenthood varies among different types of sibling dyads. The findings reveal that parenthood has similar psychological implications for middle‐aged mothers and fathers. Main differences arise from specific configurations of the parental role. The association between parenthood and mental health partly reflects genetic influences but not shared early‐life environment.     

实行柔性监管与构建和谐社会——泉州工商机关深化行政指导实践的追踪调研报告

泉州工商行政机关不断探索创新,在行政指导实践中取得明显成效,形成更多经验。为此追踪考察了泉州工商行政机关深入开展行政指导的基本做法,总结了泉州工商行政机关深入开展行政指导的成效和经验,就其继续深化工商行政指导实践提出若干对策建议。     

Identifying Dispersion Effects in Robust Design Experiments—Issues and Improvements

The two experimental methods most commonly used for reducing the effect of noise factors on a response of interest Y aim either to estimate a model of the variability (V(Y), or an associated function), that is transmitted by the noise factors, or to estimate a model of the ratio between the response (Y) and all the control and noise factors involved therein. Both methods aim to determine which control factor conditions minimise the noise factors' effect on the response of interest, and a series of analytical guidelines are established to reach this end. Product array designs allow robustness problems to be solved in both ways, but require a large number of experiments. Thus, practitioners tend to choose more economical designs that only allow them to model the surface response for Y. The general assumption is that both methods would lead to similar conclusions. In this article we present a case that utilises a design based on a product design and for which the conclusions yielded by the two analytical methods are quite different. This example casts doubt on the guidelines that experimental practice follows when using either of the two methods. Based on this example, we show the causes behind these discrepancies and we propose a number of guidelines to help researchers in the design and interpretation of robustness problems when using either of the two methods.