On confidence regions of semiparametric nonlinear reproductive dispersion models

This article investigates the confidence regions for semiparametric nonlinear reproductive dispersion models (SNRDMs), which is an extension of nonlinear regression models. Based on local linear estimate of nonparametric component and generalized profile likelihood estimate of parameter in SNRDMs, a modified geometric framework of Bates and Wattes is proposed. Within this geometric framework, we present three kinds of improved approximate confidence regions for the parameters and parameter subsets in terms of curvatures. The work extends the previous results of Hamilton et al. [in Accounting for intrinsic nonlinearity in nonlinear regression parameter inference regions, Ann. Statist. 10, pp. 386–393, 1982], Hamilton [in Confidence regions for parameter subset in nonlinear regression, Biometrika, 73, pp. 57–64, 1986], Wei [in On confidence regions of embedded models in regular parameter families (a geometric approch), Austral. J. Statist. 36, pp. 327–338, 1994], Tang et al. [in Confidence regions in quasi-likelihood nonlinear models: a geometric approach, J. Biomath. 15, pp. 55–64, 2000b] and Zhu et al. [in On confidence regions of semiparametric nonlinear regression models, Acta. Math. Scient. 20, pp. 68–75, 2000].     

A bibliography of statistical tolerance regions

The bibliography contains about 270 references dealing with statistical tolerance regions. These are classified according to the type of probability distribution concerned and according to some other criteria as well.     

房价变动、产业转移与区域协调发展——以京津冀地区为例

构建房价-资本模型，分析房地产行业投资收益对工业再投资的影响，发现：地区间适当的房地产行业投资收益差异有利于工业企业从核心地区向边缘地区转移，差异较大则导致资本流向房价增长过快地区的房地产行业；若地区间房地产行业投资收益差异既定，较大的经济发展差距对产业转移起阻碍作用，激烈的市场竞争则起促进作用。利用京津冀地区13个城市的数据构建面板门限模型，验证了：（1）较低的房价增长率促进了北京市相对低效的资本向外转移，但是北京市与周边地区较大的经济发展差距又阻碍了该趋势。（2）核心区流出的资本优先向次发达地区转移，而落后地区则有被彻底边缘化的风险。为实现京津冀地区协调发展，一方面要加强对京津冀地区房价的宏观调控、防止房价过快增长；另一方面要制定针对边缘地区的优惠政策，引导非首都功能向周边转移。     

Disentangling the Governance Configurations of Strategic Spatial Plan-Making in European Urban Regions

This paper is aimed at assessing and disentangling how territorial governance configurations influence contemporary practices in strategic plan-making in 14 European urban regions. The findings allow us to distinguish three dominant practices: i) plan-making shaped by consensus building and multilevel government cooperation; ii) plan-making shaped by the involvement of profit-oriented actors and negotiations, and iii) plan-making shaped by consolidated planning practice. To truly grasp plan-making practice, it is necessary to scrutinize who rules and who is ruled while negotiations are unfolding, as well as the extent to which private actors’ interests influence how spatial development goals and strategies are defined.     

Bayesian analysis of multivariate survival data using Monte Carlo methods

This paper deals with the analysis of multivariate survival data from a Bayesian perspective using Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods. The Metropolis along with the Gibbs algorithm is used to calculate some of the marginal posterior distributions. A multivariate survival model is proposed, since survival times within the same group are correlated as a consequence of a frailty random block effect. The conditional proportional-hazards model of Clayton and Cuzick is used with a martingale structured prior process (Arjas and Gasbarra) for the discretized baseline hazard. Besides the calculation of the marginal posterior distributions of the parameters of interest, this paper presents some Bayesian EDA diagnostic techniques to detect model adequacy. The methodology is exemplified with kidney infection data where the times to infections within the same patients are expected to be correlated.     

新常态下陕西小康社会建设进程测度

全面建成小康社会,必须主动适应、把握、引领新常态。在对“小康社会”科学内涵研究的基础上,以国家统计局指标体系为基准,构建陕西省各地市全面建成小康社会进程指标体系,定量测算了2005-2014年间陕西省及其各地市的小康实现程度。结合陕西省新常态经济发展环境,预测陕西省各地市“十三五”期间的小康社会进程,预测结果显示陕西省小康社会总体呈稳步上升趋势;各区域差距较大,阶段性特征明显。因此,应通过进一步统筹区域发展,推进新型城镇化建设、实施创新驱动发展战略,同步够格地建成小康社会。     

历史时期重庆民族地区的土司制度

土司制度是元明及清前期封建王朝对我国西南、西北等少数民族地区实施的一种管理制度,是从历代“羁縻政策”发展而来。历史时期重庆民族地区土司主要包括石砫马氏土司,酉阳冉氏土司,秀山平茶、邑梅、石耶和地坝四个杨氏土司。重庆土司制度包括职衔制度、承袭制度、升迁制度、惩罚制度、贡赋制度、土兵制度和教育制度等七个方面的内容。探讨历史时期重庆民族地区土司制度,有助于专家学者们更加深入地研究我国元明清时期的土司制度。     

边疆民族地区政府社会管理分析研究的理论视角

政府社会管理在加快边疆民族地区经济社会发展、促进社会和谐稳定方面发挥着主导作用。对边疆民族地区的政府社会管理,本文从政治文化、社会结构、政府职能和社会政策的视角,进行了分析透视。在中华民族传统政治文化的影响和统一的政治体制下,边疆民族地区政府社会管理体现了我国社会管理的一般性规律,但更由于民族地区独特的行政环境,在政治文化、社会结构、政府职能以及社会政策等方面的诸多差异,而使其政府社会管理呈现出特殊性的一面。     

A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for Structural Models

This paper develops a general method for constructing exactly similar tests based on the conditional distribution of nonpivotal statistics in a simultaneous equations model with normal errors and known reduced‐form covariance matrix. These tests are shown to be similar under weak‐instrument asymptotics when the reduced‐form covariance matrix is estimated and the errors are non‐normal. The conditional test based on the likelihood ratio statistic is particularly simple and has good power properties. Like the score test, it is optimal under the usual local‐to‐null asymptotics, but it has better power when identification is weak.     

清雍正朝乌蒙、镇雄土司“改流”动因考——兼论清朝“改土归流”之实质

雍正朝对乌蒙、镇雄土司的“改流”是在特殊地域与特殊局势下的一次特殊战略决策。其背后的动因是为了清除漠西蒙古对乌蒙、镇雄土司的裹挟,防范西南土司倒戈,威胁清廷统治。与之同时进行的西南其他区域的“改土归流”,是雍正皇帝战略决策的有机组成部分和清廷加强对西南地区直接管理的表现。所以清朝“改土归流”的实质,不是要对西南土司进行大规模裁撤,更非废除土司制度,而是一场军事战略决策与特殊事件引发的对西南地方行政设置的变动。