政策边缘人：理解基层政策执行难的一个视角——以精准扶贫中的“争贫”为例

当公共政策只针对部分社会群体的时候，靠近政策分界线但又没有享受到政策利益的群体就会成为政策边缘人，政策边缘人属于利益外群体，但其结构性位置却又让其最接近分享政策利益，属于潜在受益者。在社会分化和竞争的背景下，政策边缘人与其他条件差不多的群体对比会产生相对剥夺感。政策边缘人会认为享有政策利益本应是他们的权利，于是他们基于维权的想法会通过各种方式谋取政策利益，在此过程中就会影响到基层公共政策的执行。因此，建议通过提高基层治理的法治化、科学化、精细化水平和组织化程度等方式减少政策边缘人对政策执行和基层治理带来的消极影响。     

Estimation of Mode Using Two-phase Sampling

In this article, we consider the problem of estimation of mode using two-phase sampling. Ratio- and difference-type estimators in two-phase sampling are proposed. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are studied analytically as well as empirically for different situations for the given cost of surveys. The use of two-phase sampling has been found to be cost saving design while estimating mode by making a proper use of auxiliary information.     

Another look at the robustness of colton's model for comparing two medical treatments

The robustness of an extended version of Colton's decision theoretic model is considered. The extended version includes the losses due to the patients who are not entered in the experiment, but require treatment while the experiment is in progress. Among the topics considered are the effects of risk of using a sample size considerably less than the optimum, use of an incorrect patient horizon, application of a modified loss function, and use of a two point prior distribution. It is shown that the investigated model is robust with respect to all these changes with the exception of the use of the modified prior density.     

Testing for exponentiality against monotone failure rate average alternatives

We propose a test for exponentiality against the class of non-exponential distributions having monotone failure rate averages. The test statistic, which is a U-statistic and hence asymptotically normally distributed, is much simpler than its competitors yet compares favorably with them in efficiency and power comparisons.     

Estimation of geodesic tortuosity and constrictivity in stationary random closed sets

We investigate the problem of estimating geodesic tortuosity and constrictivity as two structural characteristics of stationary random closed sets. They are of central importance for the analysis of effective transport properties in porous or composite materials. Loosely speaking, geodesic tortuosity measures the windedness of paths, whereas the notion of constrictivity captures the appearance of bottlenecks resulting from narrow passages within a given materials phase. We first provide mathematically precise definitions of these quantities and introduce appropriate estimators. Then, we show strong consistency of these estimators for unboundedly growing sampling windows. In order to apply our estimators to real data sets, the extent of edge effects needs to be controlled. This is illustrated using a model for a multiphase material that is incorporated in solid oxide fuel cells.     

基于股价预测的泛证券投资组合策略

本文基于期望效用最大化和L₁-中位数估计研究了在线投资组合选择问题。与EG（Exponential Gradient）策略仅利用单期价格信息估计价格趋势不同,本文将利用多期价格信息估计价格趋势,以提高在线策略的性能。首先,基于多期价格数据,利用L₁-中位数估计得到预期价格趋势。然后,通过期望效用最大化,提出一个新的具有线型时间复杂度的在线策略,EGLM（Exponential Gradient via L₁-Median）。并通过相对熵函数定义资产权重向量的距离,进而证明了EGLM策略具有泛证券投资组合性质。最后,利用国内外6个证券市场的历史数据进行实证分析,结果表明相较于UP（Universal Portfolio）策略和EG策略,EGLM策略有更好的竞争性能。     

当前我国民间信仰问题的现状及对策思考

民间信仰是比较普遍存在的一种特殊而又复杂的文化现象,当前民间信仰领域出现了一些新的问题,民问信仰管理工作也出现了主体不明、管理缺位、法律依据不足等问题。要解决这一问题,一要重视和加强基层政权建设和文化建设：二要对民间信仰的管理模式进行规范和创新;三要加强对民间信仰问题的研究与探索。     

语言的“不可译性”简析

语言的“不可译性”既有“文化不可译性”与“语言不可译性”之分,也有“相对不可译性”与“绝对不可译性”之别,应该具体分析和区别对待。研究语言的“不可译性”,有利于进一步了解不同语言和文化的异同,也有助于进一步探讨翻译理论,尤其是翻译标准。     

“罪名”抑或“具体犯罪行为”之析——对刑法第17条第2款有权解释的几点看法

相对刑事责任年龄的人犯罪,承担刑事责任能力与其年龄密切相关。立法上始终贯彻“以教育为主,惩罚为辅”的方针和“从宽处罚”的原则,对其承担刑事责任的范围作出了及其严格的限制规定。但如何确定犯罪的相对刑事责任年龄人承担刑事责任的范围、触犯的罪名等,在理论上还有待于进一步探讨。     

Your position in society matters for how happy you are

This article shows that people's perception of their position in society is strongly correlated with their level of happiness, and thus that differences in happiness levels among countries in different welfare state clusters are influenced by people's perceptions of their relative position in society (subjective position). The study drew on data from the European Social Survey. Two important findings emerged from the analysis. First, an individual's subjective position in society is a more important predictor of happiness than objective measures such as income, education and labour market position. Second, the link between individuals’ perceived position in society and their level of happiness is moderated by the welfare state. In the Nordic countries, people's perceptions of their position in society have less influence on happiness whereas in Eastern European countries we found a strong connection between subjective position and happiness.