TEM-8人文知识项目试题评析及其反拨效应

本文结合近两年TEM-8实考试题,针对其新增题型(人文知识项目),从必要性、信度、效度与反拨效应等几个方面进行了简要评析.     

东西部公路使用效益的结构方程模型

为了解东西部地区公路线路基础设施使用效益的差异,从宏观层面建立了东西部地区客货运量与不同等级公路之间的结构方程模型,实证分析了东西部地区不同等级公路的使用效益。分析表明：东部地区除等外级公路以外,其他各等级公路的使用效益均高于西部地区;东部地区公路线路基础设施对货运量和货运周转量的效应均较大,西部地区公路线路基础设施对客运周转量的效应较大;由于经济发展阶段和产业结构特点不同,收费政策对东西部地区高速公路的使用效益产生了不同的影响。     

CONDITIONAL INFERENCE ABOUT AN EQUICORRELATION COEFFICIENT

SenGupta (1987) proposed a locally most powerful test which is globally (one sided) unbiased, and an estimator of p, the equicorrelation coefficient of a standard symmetric multivariate normal (SSMN) distribution. Here we use the idea in Williams (1984) to illustrate the construction and use of ancillary statistics to make inference about p. The test and confidence intervals based on this construction are conditionally optimal.     

对大学英语一份试卷的分析

IntroductionThis analysis first presents the relevant infor-mation about the test paper that the author used inChina in 2003.Then it evaluates the test in the as-pects of content validity,construct validity and re-liability in scoring.For those deficiencies exhibitedby the test,some suggestions are provided on howto improve the test in order to achieve validity,re-liability and practicality.Background informationThe test purpose.This was an achievement testfirmly based on the syllabus and th…     

核事故早期应急群决策模型研究

有效快速的核事故早期应急决策,是核电站发生核事故后最后一道必要的屏障,因此决策的快速性与有效性至关重要。文章先构造效用函数,求出决策者的乐观系数,将决策判断矩阵中的区间值与模糊值精确化;在此基础上建立了个体与群体的决策模型,以提高决策的有效性。同时根据排序结果,构造群体与个体之间一致性判断矩阵,并根据判断矩阵进行交互与修改,使专家内部快速达成一致。最后通过算例说明方法的可行性。     

涡旋压缩机异形封头可靠性设计

为评估异形封头结构在涡旋压缩机运行过程中的可靠性,参考压力容器椭圆形封头设计理论,采用常规设计方 法对封头进行了结构设计和强度校核;基于封头材料性能、结构尺寸等设计参数的分散性,将各参数作为正态分布的基 本变量,对封头结构进行了可靠性设计,并对基本变量分布参数的灵敏度进行分析。计算结果表明,与常规设计方法相 比,可靠性设计在确保结构安全性的前提下,同时保证了设计的经济性;影响封头可靠度的主要因素是材料屈服极限、工 作压力和壁厚。     

甘肃省入境客流时空演变特征分析

经过将近30多年的发展,甘肃省入境旅游旅游业取得了长足的发展,入境旅游业的发展拓宽了甘肃省旅游产业的发展空间。但由于受到各种因素的制约,甘肃省入境客流的变化发展有着自身独特的规律和特点,特别是从甘肃省入境旅游发展的外部环境看,其时间和空间演变的特征十分典型,特别是时空分布的不平衡性是其长期以来最显著的特征。     

小世界创新网络动态演化及其效应研究

低度、中度和高度开放的创新网络在创新集群创立和解体的动态演化过程中,其表现出的小世界性对创新绩效的效应有着较大差异． 创新绩效同创新网络小世界性间往往呈现倒U形关系,但该关系只在特定开放度下的创新网络演化到特定阶段才会显现: 低度开放的网络的小世界性同创新绩效的倒U 形关系在创新集群建立阶段显著,而在创新集群解体阶段不显著; 高度开放的网络则恰好相反; 在网络演化的其他阶段,小世界性对创新绩效并未构成显著影响． 这很可能是由于在创新绩效显著变化的阶段,创新个体的能动性较强,更倾向于接受新知识: 在低度开放的网络中,创新绩效显著上升的阶段主要集中于新的创新集群建立的阶段,而在高度开放的网络则主要集中于原有创新集群解体的阶段． 对中国专利合作发明数据的回归分析结果为该研究结论提供了实证依据． 因此,应当保持一个适度集聚的创新网络,以保证其不会传播过多冗余信息; 应在创新网络演化的不同阶段采用不同的开放策略,以充分利用高度和低度开放的创新网络演化到不同阶段所发挥的优势,同时,应当主动按照新兴技术下的新形势适当调整创新网络结构关系．     

A Bayesian estimate of the concordance correlation coefficient with skewed data

Concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) is one of the most popular scaled indices used to evaluate agreement. Most commonly, it is used under the assumption that data is normally distributed. This assumption, however, does not apply to skewed data sets. While methods for the estimation of the CCC of skewed data sets have been introduced and studied, the Bayesian approach and its comparison with the previous methods has been lacking. In this study, we propose a Bayesian method for the estimation of the CCC of skewed data sets and compare it with the best method previously investigated. The proposed method has certain advantages. It tends to outperform the best method studied before when the variation of the data is mainly from the random subject effect instead of error. Furthermore, it allows for greater flexibility in application by enabling incorporation of missing data, confounding covariates, and replications, which was not considered previously. The superiority of this new approach is demonstrated using simulation as well as real‐life biomarker data sets used in an electroencephalography clinical study. The implementation of the Bayesian method is accessible through the Comprehensive R Archive Network. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Bivariate Distribution Family with Specified Correlation Coefficient and Given Marginals

For given continuous distribution functions F(x) and G(y) and a Pearson correlation coefficient ρ, an algorithm is provided to construct a sequence of continuous bivariate distributions with marginals equal to F(x) and G(y) and the corresponding correlation coefficient converges to ρ. The algorithm can be easily implemented using S-Plus or R. Applications are given to generate bivariate random variables with marginals including Gamma, Beta, Weibull, and uniform distributions.