甘肃省工业化水平分析研究

根据钱纳里、库兹涅茨等人的工业化理论，选用甘肃省21世纪前10年的人均国内生产总值、三次产业结构、就业结构、工业化率、城镇化率、工业化系数等指标，计算分析与判断省内整体的工业化水平，并得出工业化进程的结论。     

Stochastic comparisons of order statistics,with applications in relibility

This paper reviews recent developments in the stochastic comparison of order statistics. The results discussed are basically: (l) Stochastic comparisons of linear combinations of order statistics from distributions F and G where G^?1 F is convex or starshaped. (2) Stochastic comparisons of individual order statistics and of vectors of order statistics from underlying heterogeneous distributions by the use of majorization and Schur function theory. (3) Stochastic comparison of random processes. Applications to reliability problems are presented illustrating the use and value of the theoretical results described     

Optimal Designs for Random Coefficient Regression Models with Heteroscedastic Errors

The purpose of this article is to present the optimal designs based on D-, G-, A-, I-, and D _β-optimality criteria for random coefficient regression (RCR) models with heteroscedastic errors. A sufficient condition for the heteroscedastic structure is given to make sure that the search of optimal designs can be confined at extreme settings of the design region when the criteria satisfy the assumption of the real valued monotone design criteria. Analytical solutions of D-, G-, A-, I-, and D _β-optimal designs for the RCR models are derived. Two examples are presented for random slope models with specific heteroscedastic errors.     

山地城市公交线网优化措施探析

大力发展公交是解决山地城市交通问题的重要手段之一，合理的公交线网可以提高公交服务水平，增强解决交通问题的能力。以重庆市为例，分析公交线网存在的问题并提出了相应的优化措施，以促进山地城市公交的可持续发展。     

Some results on renewal equations

In this paper solutions of renewal-type integral equations are studied. It is proved that a recursively spades;efined approximation to the solution has some nice convergence properties. Some simple bounds and other results on the renewal function and the renewal spades;,ensity are obtained.     

Measures of dependence for the multivariate t distribution with applications to the stock market

Two measures of dependence for multivariate t and Cauchy random variables are developed based on Kullback–Leibler number. The mutual information number T(X) is obtained in a closed expression form, as well as its asymptotic distribution. A dependence coefficient ρ₁, is defined (based on the Kullback–Leibler number) with the properties of ρ₁=0 indicating independence and ρ₁=1indicating degeneracy. Two real life examples from the stock market are used to analyze the level of dependence and correlation among stocks.     

Reliability models for categorical data

As assumed hypothetical consensus category corresponding to a case being classified provides a basis for assessment of reliability of judges. Equivalent judges are characterised by the joint probability distribution of the judge assignment and the consensus category. Estimates of the conditional probabilities of judge assignment given consensus category and of consensus category given judge assignments are indices of reliability. All parameters can be estimated if data include classifications of a number of cases by 3 or more judges. Restrictive assumptions are imposed to obtain models for data from classifications by two judges. Maximum likelihood estimation is discussed and illustrated by example for the 3 or more judges case.     

数控系统的抗干扰技术

本文从提高数控系统的可靠性出发，阐述了数控系统抗干扰设计的必要性。具体讨论了数控系统中一些实用而有效的抗干扰技术。     

Probabilistic Reliability Modeling for Oil Exploration & Production (E&P) Facilities in the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve

The aging domestic oil production infrastructure represents a high risk to the environment because of the type of fluids being handled (oil and brine) and the potential for accidental release of these fluids into sensitive ecosystems. Currently, there is not a quantitative risk model directly applicable to onshore oil exploration and production (E&P) facilities. We report on a probabilistic reliability model created for onshore exploration and production (E&P) facilities. Reliability theory, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), and event trees were used to develop the model estimates of the failure probability of typical oil production equipment. Monte Carlo simulation was used to translate uncertainty in input parameter values to uncertainty in the model output. The predicted failure rates were calibrated to available failure rate information by adjusting probability density function parameters used as random variates in the Monte Carlo simulations. The mean and standard deviation of normal variate distributions from which the Weibull distribution characteristic life was chosen were used as adjustable parameters in the model calibration. The model was applied to oil production leases in the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve, Oklahoma. We present the estimated failure probability due to the combination of the most significant failure modes associated with each type of equipment (pumps, tanks, and pipes). The results show that the estimated probability of failure for tanks is about the same as that for pipes, but that pumps have much lower failure probability. The model can provide necessary equipment reliability information for proactive risk management at the lease level by providing quantitative information to base allocation of maintenance resources to high-risk equipment that will minimize both lost production and ecosystem damage.     

中国地区金融差距变动趋势研究：1978—2004年

在金融发展地区差距是否趋同问题的研究上存在两种截然相反的观点,文章在对已有研究比较分析的基础上,通过两种指标、两种衡量方法对中国1978-2004各地区的金融发展差距进行了研究,各种统计结果互相印证,由此,我们得出了一个较为可靠的结论:中国地区金融发展差距呈现U形变化,东部、中部、西部三大区域间差距自20世纪90年代中期以来有上升趋势。