Lay people in court: the experience of defendants,eyewitnesses and victims

The article considers the effect of criminal trial procedures on the experience at court of victims, witnesses and defendants. Trials for offences involving physical violence were observed, and interviews conducted with those involved. The article highlights communication problems lay people encountered relating to courtroom conventions, discusses alternative procedures granting more room for narrative testimony, and draws parallels between such an approach and principles of research methods directed to securing valid, reliable data.     

Bias reduction for nonparametric correlation coefficients under the bivariate normal copula assumption with known detection limits

The authors derive the asymptotic mean and bias of Kendall's tau and Spearman's rho in the presence of left censoring in the bivariate Gaussian copula model. They show that tie corrections for left‐censoring brings the value of these coefficients closer to zero. They also present a bias reduction method and illustrate it through two applications.     

Further Thoughts on the Utility of Risk Matrices

Risk matrices are commonly encountered devices for rating hazards in numerous areas of risk management. Part of their popularity is predicated on their apparent simplicity and transparency. Recent research, however, has identified serious mathematical defects and inconsistencies. This article further examines the reliability and utility of risk matrices for ranking hazards, specifically in the context of public leisure activities including travel. We find that (1) different risk assessors may assign vastly different ratings to the same hazard, (2) even following lengthy reflection and learning scatter remains high, and (3) the underlying drivers of disparate ratings relate to fundamentally different worldviews, beliefs, and a panoply of psychosocial factors that are seldom explicitly acknowledged. It appears that risk matrices when used in this context may be creating no more than an artificial and even untrustworthy picture of the relative importance of hazards, which may be of little or no benefit to those trying to manage risk effectively and rationally.     

有先行者优势的确定性网络

提出了一个确定性网络模型.模型考虑了新生成节点有不同的强弱状态,用节点度刻画节点的强弱,即强节点的度比较大.通过解析计算,得到了网络的特征系数,其特点是幂律度分布、大集聚系数和幂律簇度相关性,即模型生成了一个无标度层次网络.认为网络是无标度的是由于其生成方式上的特点,越早生成的节点拥有的度越大,这与BA(Barabási-Albert)无标度网络生长方式相似.如果节点度代表了个体拥有的资源、能力及社会关系等,那么越早生成的节点度越大,恰好对应于占先策略,即先行者优势.     

Optimal component test plans for a parallel system based on Type-II censoring

Consider a parallel system with n independent components. Assume that the lifetime of the jth component follows an exponential distribution with a constant but unknown parameter λ_j, 1≤j≤n. We test r_j components of type-j for failure and compute the total time T_j of r_j failures for the jth component. Based on T=(T₁,T₂,…,T_n) and r=(r₁,r₂,…,r_n), we derive optimal reliability test plans which ensure the usual probability requirements on system reliability. Further, we solve the associated nonlinear integer programming problem by a simple enumeration of integers over the feasible range. An algorithm is developed to obtain integer solutions with minimum cost. Finally, some examples have been discussed for various levels of producer’s and consumer’s risk to illustrate the approach. Our optimal plans lead to considerable savings in costs over the available plans in the literature.     

碳酸盐岩缝洞型油藏产水机理及控水措施研究

塔河油田4区奥陶系油藏是典型的复杂碳酸盐岩油藏。油藏开发进入高含水之后，油井产液量急剧降低，油井出水问题已经成为该油田开发的突出问题，严重制约着油田采收率。以塔河油田4区主力缝洞单元S65与S48为研究对象，在归纳出缓慢出水型、突发上升型、间歇出水型等3种产水类型油井基础上，利用地震、钻井、测井等资料，结合生产动态特征进一步分析3种类型油井的产水机理。据此提出合理、有效的控水措施：缓慢出水型油井在单元低部位注水保持能量；突发上升型油井应考虑堵水、上返高部位侧钻；间歇出水型油井考虑关井压锥，堵水控制水窜范围和规模。措施效果明显，可指导该类油藏高效开发。     

Benzene Risk Estimation Using Radiation Equivalent Coefficients

We estimated benzene risk using a novel framework of risk assessment that employed the measurement of radiation dose equivalents to benzene metabolites and a PBPK model. The highest risks for 1 μg/m³ and 3.2 mg/m³ life time exposure of benzene estimated with a linear regression were 5.4 × 10⁻⁷ and 1.3 × 10⁻³, respectively. Even though these estimates were based on in vitro chromosome aberration test data, they were about one-sixth to one-fourteenth that from other studies and represent a fairly good estimate by using radiation equivalent coefficient as an "internal standard."     

基于校园网语言学科平台的英语专业学生写作互评研究

对基于网络平台的英语专业学生作文互评与软件系统评改和教师评改进行了对比分析。结果表明,学生互评的评分与教师评分没有显著差异,但系统评分与学生评分和教师评分存在显著差异;各项评分的内部信度较高,Alpha值为0.924;学生作文互评的主要依据是作文的长度、错误率,其次是用词的深浅度和文本难度。     

略论类比推理结论可靠性的判定

传统逻辑领先寻求“尽量多”的相似点，来提高类比推理结论的可靠性，不仅使人们难以把握非确定时空条件下的“尽量多”，而且这个“尽量多”概念本身就是模糊的，也难免在“尽量多”的属性中出现冗余信息，一些实观条件也不允许人们去寻找“尽量多”的相似属性。因此，对于类比推理结论的可靠性，不必刻意追求“尽量多”，而可以用决定性、一致性和相关性来判定，并可运用概率论、集合论的知识，将其分别形式化。     

The theory evaluation scale: An epistemological tool for analyzing social work theories

The profession of social work places a strong emphasis on the utilization of theories in classroom settings as well as in clinical milieus. Therefore, it is understandable that social work students, scholars, researchers, and practitioners feel compelled to make sense of theoretical underpinnings in their professional lives. This study sought to develop an instrument to critically appraise social work theories. Through Qualtrics, a panel of 14 internationally recognized experts in social work theories assessed the content of 16 items, which emanated from the literature on scale development. All of these items were described in accordance with Lawshe’s (1975) content-validity framework. Nine of the original 16 criteria survived expert scrutiny to constitute the Theory Evaluation Scale. Coherence, conceptual clarity, philosophical assumptions, connection with previous research, testability, empiricism, limitations, client context, and human agency were the final criteria on the empirically supported instrument. Implications for research, practice, and social work education are discussed.