On some robust estimation procedures for quantiles based on data

This paper introduces some robust estimation procedures to estimate quantiles of a continuous random variable based on data, without any other assumptions of probability distribution. We construct a reasonable linear regression model to connect the relationship between a suitable symmetric data transformation and the approximate standard normal statistics. Statistical properties of this linear regression model and its applications are studied, including estimators of quantiles, quartile mean, quartile deviation, correlation coefficient of quantiles and standard errors of these estimators. We give some empirical examples to illustrate the statistical properties and apply our estimators to grouping data.     

高职商务英语口语测试评分标准初探

评分方法是口语测试中的一个重要环节,也是比较棘手的一个环节。评分方法的有效性与客观性直接决定了口语测试的成败。现针对湖南高职商务英语专业口语评分标准的制定的初步想法及其理论依据。     

磁盘阵列RAID可靠性分析

介绍了磁盘阵列的基本概念和常用的磁盘阵列种类,分析了RAID0、RAID3和RAID10三种磁盘阵列的可靠性值,同时与实验数据进行了比较。结果表明,磁盘阵列的可靠性值基于标准模型在一定程度上可以进行量化,能进行科学的计算,得出RAID10比相应其他的RAID的容量更大,可靠性更佳。该文的可靠性分析对磁盘阵列的进一步研究和生产能起到现实的指导作用。     

堆垛起重机钢结构体系可靠性分析的蒙特卡罗模拟

通过静态特性研究,分析了移动荷载对结构的剪力、弯矩和应力的影响,分别确定了剪力值最大、弯矩值最大和应力最大的位置.用蒙特卡罗法对起重机钢结构体系可靠性进行研究,并对影响体系可靠性灵敏度最大的的参数进行了分析.     

Reliability Analysis Based on the Losses from Failures

The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the early-life failures region and the expected losses given failure characterizing the corresponding time intervals. For complex systems whose components are not logically arranged in series, discrete simulation algorithms and software have been created for determining the losses from failures in terms of expected lost production time, cost of intervention, and cost of replacement. Different system topologies are assessed to determine the effect of modifications of the system topology on the expected losses from failures. It is argued that the reliability allocation in a production system should be done to maximize the profit/value associated with the system. Consequently, a method for setting reliability requirements and reliability allocation maximizing the profit by minimizing the total cost has been developed. Reliability allocation that maximizes the profit in case of a system consisting of blocks arranged in series is achieved by determining for each block individually the reliabilities of the components in the block that minimize the sum of the capital, operation costs, and the expected losses from failures. A Monte Carlo simulation based net present value (NPV) cash-flow model has also been proposed, which has significant advantages to cash-flow models based on the expected value of the losses from failures per time interval. Unlike these models, the proposed model has the capability to reveal the variation of the NPV due to different number of failures occurring during a specified time interval (e.g., during one year). The model also permits tracking the impact of the distribution pattern of failure occurrences and the time dependence of the losses from failures.     

模糊数的排序及其在系统决策中的应用

建立了模糊数的两种排序方法 ,给出了相应的决策模型及其实际应用 .为了度量决策模型的可靠性 ,引入了可信度的概念及计算公式 .     

Corrected local polynomial estimation in varying‐coefficient models with measurement errors

The authors study a varying‐coefficient regression model in which some of the covariates are measured with additive errors. They find that the usual local linear estimator (LLE) of the coefficient functions is biased and that the usual correction for attenuation fails to work. They propose a corrected LLE and show that it is consistent and asymptotically normal, and they also construct a consistent estimator for the model error variance. They then extend the generalized likelihood technique to develop a goodness of fit test for the model. They evaluate these various procedures through simulation studies and use them to analyze data from the Framingham Heart Study.     

粉煤灰在砼中的效应分析

从普通砼和高强砼掺用粉煤灰对强度的影响入手,分析了粉煤灰在砼中的效应,并说明了这些效应对强度的影响机理.     

一个函数不等式的推广和应用

将一个一元函数不等式推广到二维情形，并给出在初等不等式方面的几个应用。