Improving Risk Management: From Lame Excuses to Principled Practice

The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable conditions actually caused an accident or loss?) and learning from experience about risk reduction (what works, and how well?). Failures in complex systems usually evoke blame, often with insufficient attention to root causes of failure, including some aspects of the situation, design decisions, or social norms and culture. Focusing on blame, however, can inhibit effective learning, instead eliciting excuses to deflect attention and perceived culpability. Productive understanding of what went wrong, and how to do better, thus requires moving past recrimination and excuses. This article identifies common blame‐shifting “lame excuses” for poor risk management. These generally contribute little to effective improvements and may leave real risks and preventable causes unaddressed. We propose principles from risk and decision sciences and organizational design to improve results. These start with organizational leadership. More specifically, they include: deliberate testing and learning—especially from near‐misses and accident precursors; careful causal analysis of accidents; risk quantification; candid expression of uncertainties about costs and benefits of risk‐reduction options; optimization of tradeoffs between gathering additional information and immediate action; promotion of safety culture; and mindful allocation of people, responsibilities, and resources to reduce risks. We propose that these principles provide sound foundations for improving successful risk management.     

套管的失效分析

通过收集石油套管现场失效数据资料,以套管失效为顶事件建立了石油套管的故障树,该故障树共考虑了47个不同的基本事件。通过对套管故障树的分析,得到了套管失效故障树的一阶最小割集27个,二阶最小割集29个,四阶最小割集1个,确立了套管的主要失效形式为潜在损坏、套管挤毁、套管断裂及严重腐蚀,并提出了提高套管可靠性的措施。     

The ‘affective security curriculum’: breeding JBs through the marriage of the academic and the jingoistic

How does the US recruit its citizen spies used to maintain and proliferate coercive power? I use an interdisciplinary approach and a framework of affect theory to argue that there is an ‘affective security curriculum’ (ASC) that assists in explaining the tendencies towards jingoism used in the recruitment and indoctrination of students – as future security workers – in certain academic disciplines. The ASC is precisely the phenomenon that works to construct this expert class and is produced by order words, the most crucial of which is ‘terrorism’, as well as larger cultural norms linked to neoliberalism that have achieved near total dominance since the 1980s. The ASC works by intensifying the (in)ability to act for those in its domain. The necessity of linguistically proficient security workers to the US’ hegemonic project makes this a question of considerable political importance. The ASC is a different approach to answering questions of how US hegemony is maintained. Whereas positivist research agendas, such as content analysis, and postpositivist approaches, such as critical discourse analysis, certainly have their uses (and to which my notion of ASC is indebted), paradigms such as these fail to focus on the engendering processes at work vis-à-vis the expert class, without which the discursive frames such methodologies analyse would simply dissipate. My overarching purpose in this paper is to develop the concept of the ASC, its quiddity, and to present at least an incipient methodology for analysing its critical duties. As my primary intent is to introduce and conceptualize the theoretical framework of the affective security curriculum, the applied segment of this endeavour will be relatively brief – and is designed as a primer for further research.     

马克思主义教育实效分析——以武汉工业学院为例

通过对高校思想政治理论课教学的评价、学生对该课的参与程度,以及该课教学中存在的问题、改进意见和建议等情况进行调查,结果显示,教学内容、教师素质、教学方式是影响当前高校思想政治理论课教学效果的三个主要方面。     

马克思主义就业理论在我国的应用与发展

马克思主义就业理论在我国的应用发展是中国共产党三代中央领导集体和以胡锦涛为总书记的新一届党中央在马克思主义就业思想指导下,牢固立足于马克思主义就业思想的理论立场,植根于马克思主义世界观,将马克思主义就业思想的基本原理与我国实际相结合的过程,是对我国就业问题的系统反映和总结。毛泽东、邓小平、江泽民、胡锦涛对就业问题的论述,继承和发展了马克思主义就业思想,开辟了马克思主义就业思想的新境界,概括和提升了我国建设、改革的具体实践经验,并自觉地不断地推动着马克思主义就业思想在我国不断发展。     

When work keeps us apart: a thematic analysis of the experience of business travellers

Whilst business travel is deemed important for organisational success and economic outcomes, little is known about the actual process of business travelling from the perspective of individuals who undertake such travel on a regular basis. Thus the current qualitative study examined how business travellers (three women and eight men) attempt to find a balance between work and family, by focusing on how time together and time apart are experienced. The results can be interpreted and framed within work/family border theory in that business travellers' borders are less defined and less permeable, thus requiring them to border-cross more frequently. This necessitates a process of negotiation with key border-keepers (their spouse/partner). Business travellers also undertake compensatory behaviours to make up their time away from family. In order to find a work/family balance, they go through a process of adapting, negotiating and tailoring their lives around their work commitments to alleviate work–life conflict.     

投资组合动态VaR预测模型和预测精度评价

采用4种Backtesting检验方法,检验22个常态和时变投资组合动态VaR预测模型的风险预测精度,发现GJR_GPD_TV_Copula具有最高的投资组合风险预测精度,GJR_GPD_Copula的拟合、密度预测和组合风险预测精度都要高于GJR_SKST_Copula,且Copula模型的组合风险预测精度分别与拟合精度和密度预测精度存在较弱的正相关关系.     

Inclusion of persons with disabilities in mainstream employment: is it really all about the money? A case study of four large companies in Norway and Sweden

This study investigates how large companies respond to public policy measures to ensure the inclusion of persons with disabilities in mainstream employment based on a case study of four companies in Norway and Sweden. The qualitative interviews, which were conducted with company managers, government representatives in Norway, and non-governmental organisations in Sweden, revealed three overarching themes: (1) ‘legitimacy’, (2) ‘financial interests’ and (3) ‘non-financial support’. The results indicate a more proactive response from the Swedish companies, especially regarding persons with intellectual and learning difficulties. The Norwegian companies reveal a high commitment to their own employees. These findings cannot be explained solely using neo-institutional theory, which holds that organisations demonstrate ‘conformity with powerful institutional myths to strengthen support and secure survival'. The results indicate that inclusive targeted corporate policies and programmes, advisory support, and the agency and value choices of the management might matter more.     

Crossing borders with social media: Online social networks and FDI

Social media is embedded in today's internationalization strategy. Companies extend their reach into foreign countries by posting and tweeting. Firms also enhance their mobile capabilities in foreign markets (e.g., knowledge and reputation) through user-generated content in online social networks. Levering on the capabilities-based theory of the multinational enterprise, this paper builds upon a resource-based, industry/network-based, and institution-based view framework. The study provides a comprehensive conceptual and empirical model to explain the effect of social networks on foreign direct investment. Empirical analysis in a global panel dataset of >4500 multinational enterprises suggests that online social networks' activity stimulates foreign capital expenditure and new affiliates. In addition, the article explores the relevance of customer capabilities along with sectoral and institutional moderating effects.     

Quality and Reliability in Top-event Estimation: Quantitative Fault Tree Analysis in Case of Dependent Events

This article deals with the quantitative Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and the estimation method of the top-event in case of dependent events. It aims at addressing two main issues: (1) the decomposition of variability for the top-event according to several error components linked to the estimation of the top-event and sources of internal and external variations for a complex system; and (2) the definition of a Performance Measure Independent of Adjustment in order to set the quality of the top-event as a complex measure of the system failure. A simulated study applied to the health system is also carried out.