A multilevel model with autoregressive components for the analysis of tribal art prices

In this paper, we introduce a multilevel model specification with time-series components for the analysis of prices of artworks sold at auctions. Since auction data do not constitute a panel or a time series but are composed of repeated cross-sections, they require a specification with items at the first level nested in time-points. Our approach combines the flexibility of mixed effect models together with the predicting performance of time series as it allows to model the time dynamics directly. Model estimation is obtained by means of maximum likelihood through the expectation–maximization algorithm. The model is motivated by the analysis of the first database ethnic artworks sold in the most important auctions worldwide. The results show that the proposed specification improves considerably over classical proposals both in terms of fit and prediction.     

略论近代云南旧式金融业的发展状况及趋向

在近代云南商品经济的不断发展中,货币及货币经营资本的作用日渐显著,而以货币经营资本作为对象的旧式金融业,如一般的民间借贷资本、典当业、票号业、钱庄业、汇号、煎销业等也有相应发展。但随着近代企业的产生、资本主义生产关系不断扩大后,旧式金融业已不能满足生产和流通发展的需要,旧式金融机构或日趋衰落乃至消亡,或悄然向近代金融业演化。     

中韩不动产抵押制度比较研究

抵押权是担保物权中最为主要的制度。抵押权制度中抵押合同的法律性质、设立方面的问题及抵押权效力范围问题是中韩两国抵押权制度值得比较的部分。关于抵押合同的法律性质,因为对物权行为的不同理解,可以得出不同的结论,对此中韩两国都采取了相似的处理方式。抵押权的效力范围、有关第三人利益的方面,中韩两国的法律规定有一定区别。尤其是关于登记方面,因为两国的登记制度的差别,对于第三人相关的登记事项有诸多不同。     

社区中心要重视老年患者的合理用药问题

目的：基层社区中心更应重视老年患者的用药安全。方法对某社区中心2013年全年60岁及以上患者的处方进行统计分析。结果合格率87.5％,不合格12.5％,其中联合用药不合理者占8.9％,因联合致不良反应增加者占0.6％,配伍禁忌者0.4％,用法用量不合理者1.2％。结论老年患者用药现状不乐观,呼吁全社会医务人员及家属都来重视老年患者的用药安全问题。     

高校行政工作非常态任务合作博弈分析

在高校行政工作中，一些偶然性、突发性的“非常态任务”不能通过划分岗位职责完成，而需要多个岗位人员的共同合作。这一合作过程可以看作是一个博弈过程，因此，可以从博弈论的角度出发，建立博弈模型，对行政人员之间的策略选择展开分析，为增强行政人员之间的合作从而提高行政工作效率提供新的视角。     

Rank-based analysis of repeated measures block designs

A rank-based inference is developed for repeated measures balanced incomplete block and randomized complete block designs using a suitable dispersion function. Asymptotic distributions of rank estimators are developed after establishing approximate linearity of the gradient vector of the dispersion function. Unlike available nonparametric procedures for those designs, estimation and testing are tied together. Three different test statistics are developed for testing the linear hypotheses. Friedman's (1937) statistic and Durbin's (1951) statistic are particular cases of one of the three proposed statistics. An estimate of a scale parameter which appears in the ARE expression as well as as in the variences and covariances of the rank estimators is discussed.     

Of what use are tests of significance and tests of hypothesis

This paper discusses the role of significance testing, in contrast to hypothesis testing. It takes the view that the two processes must be differentiated because they are in fact different even though they possess some common mathematical features. A supporting view of significance testing is presented. Difficulties and obscurities are discussed.     

Variable order ante-dependence models

Ante-dependence models can be used to model the covariance structure in problems involving repeated measures through time. They are conditional regression models which generalize Gabriel’s constant-order ante-dependence model. Likelihood-based procedures are presented, together with simple expressions for likelihood ratio test statistics in terms of sum of squares from appropriate analysis of covariance. The estimation of the orders is approached as a model selection problem, and penalized likelihood criteria are suggested. Extensions of all procedures discussed here to situations with a monotone pattern of missing data are presented.     

Optimal repeated measurements designs for comparing test treatments with a control

A-optimal and mv optimal repeated measurments designs for comparing serveral test treatments with a control are considered. the models considered are basically of two types: without preperides and the cirular model. It is shown known that some known strongly balanced uniform repeated measurements designs can be modified to obtain optimal designs for this problem. Some other methods of finding optimal designs are also given.     

浅谈重复抵押问题

重复抵押作为一种特殊的抵押形式有其存在的合理性。完全禁止重复抵押不仅与民事法律的基本原则相悖，而且也远远落后于社会主义市场经济建设的需要。另一方面，对重复抵押也不能完全放任，而应按照一物一权原则进行严格的规范，同时完善抵押权登记制度及其他相关制度，加强对后序抵押权人的保护，最大可能地避免重复抵押的弊端。