Euro area inflation as a predictor of national inflation rates

The stability of inflation differentials is an important condition for the smooth working of a currency area, such as the European Economic and Monetary Union. In the presence of stability, changes in national inflation rates, while holding Euro area inflation fixed contemporaneously, should be only transitory. If this is the case, the rate of inflation of the whole area can also be interpreted as a predictor, at least in the long-run, of the different national inflation rates. However, in this paper we show that this condition is satisfied only for a small number of countries, including France and Italy. Better convergence results for inflation differentials are, instead, found for the USA. Some policy implications are drawn for the Eurozone.     

Higher-order Bayesian Approximations for Pseudo-posterior Distributions

The theory of higher-order asymptotics provides accurate approximations to posterior distributions for a scalar parameter of interest, and to the corresponding tail area, for practical use in Bayesian analysis. The aim of this article is to extend these approximations to pseudo-posterior distributions, e.g., posterior distributions based on a pseudo-likelihood function and a suitable prior, which are proved to be particularly useful when the full likelihood is analytically or computationally infeasible. In particular, from a theoretical point of view, we derive the Laplace approximation for a pseudo-posterior distribution, and for the corresponding tail area, for a scalar parameter of interest, also in the presence of nuisance parameters. From a computational point of view, starting from these higher-order approximations, we discuss the higher-order tail area (HOTA) algorithm useful to approximate marginal posterior distributions, and related quantities. Compared to standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the main advantage of the HOTA algorithm is that it gives independent samples at a negligible computational cost. The relevant computations are illustrated by two examples.     

论新中国成立后街道校外教育的社会作用——以北京地区为中心（1949-1965）

新中国成立后,街道办事处与居委会等组织为弥补学校教育的不足,积极开展少年儿童校外教育,有效的实现了学校教育、社会教育、家庭教育的互动与结合.街居制下校外教育的发展,有效的净化了社会环境,为少年儿童的成长创建了良好的社会氛围,发挥了积极作用.     

Long-term care in Spain: Difficulties in professionalizing services

The aim of this article is to analyze the difficulties in professionalizing the long-term care system in Spain. Since 2006, the new Spanish law has recognized care as a subjective right, and regulations are being designed to create a framework for its professionalization. Nowadays, family remains the most important group of providers who care for their elders, and women remain the main informal caregivers. Why do families resist using public long-term care services and professional carers included in the new law? The hypothesis highlights sociocultural factors as an obstacle to professionalization of long-term care services in addition to political and economic factors. The results show qualitative data about expectations, preferences, and discourses that women caregivers have in relation to their responsibility. The empirical material includes 25 interviews with different profiles of caregivers and six focus groups with family caregivers. The article suggests that the Spanish ideal of care is a problem for the professionalization of services because the family remains as the main provider of care—without specific skills, knowledge, and abilities.     

广东地区高校图书馆新生入馆教育现状与创新

对广东地区33所高校的新生入馆教育现状进行调查，从教育模式、教育内容、网络化建设、技术应用等4个方面，对调查所得的数据进行分析，探究广东地区高校新生入馆教育现状和存在的问题，并进一步探讨了高校图书馆新生入馆教育创新的对策。     

大芦家地区东二1亚段砂体微相纵横向分布研究

大芦家地区渐新统东二1亚段主要由三角洲前缘亚相组成,发育的微相类型包括河口坝、水下分流河道、水下决口扇及天然堤、远砂坝、席状砂、分流间湾等,它们在纵横向上表现出多次复合,多次叠加的特征,且各微相的界限和单砂层的界限并不一致;所有这些微相在垂向上的沉积序列可分为均一型、垂向减小型和垂向增大型三类;此外,该区三角洲体系沉积物源主要由河流从西北方向搬运而来,属高建设性的河控型三角洲,其平面呈朵状向东南方或南方延伸,其微相模式的特点是水下分流河道和河口坝沉积位于中心,其他微相分布在它们的外缘。     

幼儿园表演区游戏开展中存在的问题及解决对策——以某幼儿园大班表演区游戏《小熊请客》为例

现如今大多数幼儿园将表演游戏融入区域活动中，作为表演区游戏开展活动之一，这一转变，在实践层面上有许多值得研究的问题。文章通过对某幼儿园大班表演区游戏的观察研究发现，表演区游戏在开展中存在场所设置不合理、材料投放单一高控、游戏参与积极性低等问题。为此提出相应的解决对策：游戏前准备适宜的场地、丰富的内容、多样的材料；游戏中细心观察，适时引导，指导过程中注意重游戏轻表演；游戏后共同分享交流，解决游戏中出现的问题，以此更好地发挥表演区游戏的实际效用。     

胡尖山地区长 6、长 4+5 储层有利区预测

摘要：以胡尖山油田长 6、长 4+5 油藏为例，综合应用地质资料、岩芯分析资料、测井资料以及试油资料，开展了长 6和长 4+5 油藏小层划分和对比、单井相分析，建立测井相识别模式，编制小层沉积相平面展布图，进而分析沉积相演化规律；探讨储层砂体展布以及物性分布规律，从而深入认识研究区的储层特征。在此基础上对储层进行流动单元的划分，然后结合试油资料对胡尖山油田长 6、长 4+5 油藏的储层进行有利区域的预测，为油田待开发区域的合理建产开发提供了理论指导     

农村校车安全事故背后的教育公平问题

近年来农村校车事故频发,使得校车安全问题浮出了水面。其实,校车不够规范只是校车事故频发的表层原因,而更深层次的原因却在于城乡教育资源配置的不公平。所以要解决校车安全问题,不仅在于规范校车、提高校车的质量,还在于合理配置教育资源,实现城乡教育公平。